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Takeaway: If 1605 snaps, there’s no TREND support to 1583. As a result, the plan from here is to wait and watch.

This note was originally published June 20, 2013 at 10:31 in Macro

POSITION: 6 LONGS, 4 SHORTS @Hedgeye

Dicey: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - bulls vs bears 

Dicey is as dicey does. US economic data is surprising on the upside (Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed) as Asian and Emerging Market data is surprising on the downside. Markets aren’t economies – anything can happen.

Our decision to sell stocks for the last few weeks was based on the signal. Our signal almost always trumps the research view. And in this case it’s the US economic data being too good that ultimately became the problem for Gold and Bonds. Who would have thunk.

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1631
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1605
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1583

In other words, if 1605 snaps, there’s no TREND support to 1583. As a result, the plan from here is to wait and watch. I like to be in no hurry when consensus is clamoring to move.

Sometimes doing nothing is the best move you can make,

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Dicey: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX