This note was originally published June 14, 2013 at 11:07 in Macro
The signal says sell, so I have been selling again all morning. The fundamental research view also says sell, which is very new.
Dollar Down, Up Oil = not good. Or at least it may not be as good as yesterday’s employment and consumption #GrowthAccelerating data (Jobless Claims and Retail Sales) was. It’s been a heck of a 6 month run, and no one ever went broke locking it in.
Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:
- Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1653
- Immediate-term TRADE support = 1601
- Intermediate-term TREND support = 1583
In other words, SPY is still signaling lower-highs in my model as front-month VIX signals higher-lows. That’s the immediate-term, and to be clear, selling up here is an immediate-term TRADE call.
I’ll likely gross up US Equity exposure between 1583-1601 again – but the US Dollar needs to recover it’s TREND line ($81.21) for me to buy as aggressively as I have throughout the 2013 US growth recovery.
Happy Father’s Day to all the Dad’s out there and enjoy your summer weekend,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer