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Takeaway: The US Dollar is the most important thing in my model right now.

(Excerpted from this morning's Hedgeye conference call)

The US Dollar is the most important thing in my model right now. It is literally sitting right on its trend line. To a penny.


This is like a golf ball sitting right on the edge of a hole.

What are you going to do? Blow on it? You’ve got to wait. You’ve got to watch.

If you’re an intermediate term, or long term investor, you should just wait. Why wouldn’t you just wait? Eventually someone’s going to blow on that ball one way or another. It’s either going to go into the hole, it’s going to go in the hole or it’s going to break down.

The point here is that if the USD breaks its trend line, that would be something new. That’s not something we’ve seen for six months. It’s our Hedgeye Chart of the Day. It’s the most important thing in my notebook this morning. It’s obviously something I am focused on.

Bottom line: I’ll say this until I’m blue in the face. If you want to get Global Equities right, you have to get the US Dollar right.