This morning's jobless claims report was what it was - fundamentally bearish, on the margin.
Bearish for what? is the question however. If this acceleration in both the week-over-week and 4 week moving average (see chart below) is bearish for the US Dollar - then you know what that means for stocks - its bullish.
If this entire blow-off of the peak February Fear Factor on unemployment was a "head-fake", I will be surprised. That said, based on the latest fact, that probability is now back in play, and I'll call that for what it is. The only thing I can do from here is wait on next week's report.
One week doesn't a legitimate Depression redo make, but the Bear Hunters have every right to be back on the field here, armed with this chart and data point in hand. Bearish for what, will remain the question. Mr. Market is forward looking, and in early trading response telling us so far that Bear Hunters are better served being short volatility (VIX) and the US Dollar (UUP), rather than US Equities.
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
