As we've mentioned before, we prefer to look at the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) jobless claims numbers. There’s not a whole lot of distortion there. NSA claims were better by 8.2% vs last year, as compared with the 8.0% improvement in the previous week. To be clear, not only is the labor market improving, but it is doing so at an accelerating rate.
Meanwhile, rolling NSA claims vs. the 10YR still looks good, but has diverged directionally over the last few weeks.
Bottom line: If we do get a correction in the coming weeks, we'd view it as a buying opportunity as the underlying health of both the labor and housing markets continue to show accelerating rates of improvement.
