The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 27th of May through the 31st is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.
Takeaway: Here's a look at Keith's top tweets heading into Memorial Day weekend.
Our best week ever in terms of new clients - thanking all of you for helping us be the change we all want to see
Long weekend trading days usually some of my favorite - volume makes it easier to pick people off
When we say sell, clients sell - when the Old Wall says sell, I usually cover/buy
The combination of market morons and economic ideologues is something we love competing with
Krugman's Op-Ed "Japan the Model" could have been written in 1924, championing the Weimar Republic @NYTimeskrugman
Takeaway: Paul Krugman and Ben Bernanke need to go back to whatever dorm they were sippin’ the Sapporo in and rethink everything.
(Excerpt from this morning's Hedgeye conference call)
Every Sector ETF in our S&P Sector Model (with the exception of Utilities) is in what we call a Bullish Formation (bullish on all 3 of our core risk management durations – TRADE, TREND, and TAIL). The Utilities Sector ETF (XLU) is getting crushed, already -6.4% in May.
What is people giving up on Utilities (Yield Chasing) saying? It‘s saying shame on you Ben Bernanke. He’s forcing retired people to chase yield and rethink the whole historic notion of savings going back to Benjamin Franklin.
Another shame shout-out goes to New York Times “economist” Paul Krugman. If you can stomach it, take a moment to read his latest op-ed championing “Abenomics” and Japan’s insane efforts to turn its economy around. Holy smokes. Krugman may as well be writing about the Weimar Republic in 1924-25.
Bottom line: Krugman and Bernanke need to go back to whatever dorm they were sippin’ the Sapporo in and rethink everything.
POSITIONS: 9 LONGS, 4 SHORTS @Hedgeye
I was a busy little beaver this morning. I came into the 10AM swoon running net short (only the 3rd day I have had more shorts than longs since November 29th), so covering on my oversold signal was a relatively easy decision. Buying aggressively here is less easy (maybe that’s why I should).
Here’s how I think about that in terms of key levels:
This week’s 50 point SPY selloff (in 48 hours from Wednesday morning’s highs to Friday morning’s lows) came on central planning risks in the US and Japan; not economic fundamentals. #BernankeRisk is real – the market has already reminded you of as much. The risk is his forecast is too bearish.
It’s perverse really. Bernanke vs The People. And the bond market (long-term Treasuries) is betting that real (inflation adjusted) growth wins.
This week’s jobless claims surprised again on the downside, New Home Sales of 454,000 were fantastic, and this morning’s Durable Good print showed #GrowthAccelerating too.
Now all we need is a bigger #StrongDollar Tax Cut at the pump. Oil down hard on the week will help.
Enjoy your long weekend,
Takeaway: We think AG Lafley is a clear improvement over Bob McDonald, but we aren’t entirely convinced that Lafley is all that good.
This note was originally published May 24, 2013 at 10:25 in Consumer Staples
“Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.” – The Who
Last night, Procter & Gamble CEO Bob McDonald announced his “retirement” and former Chairman and CEO AG Lafley was named as President and CEO. McDonald was facing a fair bit of external and internal criticism, and his retirement shouldn’t come as a complete surprise to the market. We have a couple of thoughts on the situation.
Call with questions,
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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.