Oversold: SP500 Levels, Refreshed



I was a busy little beaver this morning. I came into the 10AM swoon running net short (only the 3rd day I have had more shorts than longs since November 29th), so covering on my oversold signal was a relatively easy decision. Buying aggressively here is less easy (maybe that’s why I should).


Here’s how I think about that in terms of key levels:

  1. Inside of 1637, the SP500 is immediate-term oversold
  2. But immediate-term TRADE resistance (1657) is the 1st signal for lower-highs I’ve had all month
  3. The broader TREND of support is down at 1558

This week’s 50 point SPY selloff (in 48 hours from Wednesday morning’s highs to Friday morning’s lows) came on central planning risks in the US and Japan; not economic fundamentals. #BernankeRisk is real – the market has already reminded you of as much. The risk is his forecast is too bearish.


It’s perverse really. Bernanke vs The People. And the bond market (long-term Treasuries) is betting that real (inflation adjusted) growth wins.


This week’s jobless claims surprised again on the downside, New Home Sales of 454,000 were fantastic, and this morning’s Durable Good print showed #GrowthAccelerating too.


Now all we need is a bigger #StrongDollar Tax Cut at the pump. Oil down hard on the week will help.


Enjoy your long weekend,



Oversold: SP500 Levels, Refreshed  - SPX

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more