THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 22, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or 1.09% downside to 1651 and 0.77% upside to 1682.             

                                                                                                                  

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.69 from 1.69
  • VIX closed at 13.37 1 day percent change of 2.69%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, May 17 (prior -7.3%)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, April, est. 4.99m (prior 4.92m)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales M/m, April, est. 1.4% (prior -0.6%)
  • 10am: Fed’s Bernanke testifies to congressional panel of economic outlook
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 2036-2043 sector
  • 12:30pm: ECB’s Praet speaks on monetary policy in Washington
  • 1pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy in Nacogdoches, Texas
  • 2pm: Minutes from April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting

GOVERNMENT:

    • Financial Industry Regulatory Authority holds final day of conf. on regulatory developments, FINRA’s priorities
    • 9am: Secretary of the Army John McHugh; Army Chief of Staff Gen. Raymond Odierno testify at Senate Appropriations panel hearing on FY2014 budget estimates for U.S. Army
    • 9:30am: House Oversight and Government Reform Cmte hearing on IRS w/ Treasury Deputy Sec. Neal Wolin; former IRS Commissioner Douglas Shulman
    • 10am: Treasury Sec. Jack Lew speaks to House Financial Svcs about FSOC’s annual report
    • 10am: Senate Energy and Natural Resources Cmte forum on LNG officials from cos. incl. Sempra, Cheniere
    • 10am: Congressional-Executive Commission on China hearing on “Food and Drug Safety, Public Health, and the Environment in China”
    • 10am: House Judiciary Cmte hearing on constitutional rights during war on terrorism
    • 10am: House Foreign Affairs Cmte considers Nuclear Iran Prevention Act
    • 2pm: House Financial Services’ oversight panel holds hearing, “Who Is Too Big to Fail: Are Large Financial Institutions Immune from Federal Prosecutions.” w/ Mythili Raman, acting assistant attorney general of DOJ’s criminal division
    • 2pm: House Judiciary Cmte hearing on Senate immigration bill and the 1986 immigration overhaul

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Irish official says country didn’t give Apple tax deals
  • U.S. sales of existing homes may rise to 3-year high
  • Ford adding capacity for 200,000 new units on Fusion, F-150
  • Microsoft unveils new Xbox; has deals with NFL, Halo TV
  • Co. to hire “several thousand” Chinese workers: CEO
  • Sony board discussing Third Point’s entertainment IPO plan
  • Starbucks pays no tax in Germany, Rheinische Post reports
  • U.K.’s Miliband to tell Google CEO to change tax culture
  • Nintendo, peers winning patent infringement, royalty cases

EARNINGS:

    • Lowe’s (LOW) 6am, $0.51 - Preview
    • Staples (SPLS) 6am, $0.27
    • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 7am, $0.37
    • Target (TGT) 7:30am, $0.84 - Preview
    • American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 8am, $0.17
    • Eaton Vance (EV) 8:39am, $0.52
    • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) 4pm, $0.81
    • PetSmart (PETM) 4:02pm, $0.96
    • Synopsys (SNPS) 4:05pm, $0.63
    • Workday (WDAY) 4:05pm, $(0.18)
    • HEICO (HEI) 4:10pm, $0.40
    • L Brands (LTD) 4:30pm, $0.46
    • Semtech (SMTC) 4:30pm, $0.47
    • Bristow Group (BRS) 5:05pm, $1.02
    • SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS) Aft-mkt, No est.

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Gains Amid Stimulus Speculation Before Bernanke Testimony
  • Death in Parched Farm Field Reveals Growing India Water Tragedy
  • WTI Crude Drops a Second Day as U.S. Supplies Gain a Fourth Week
  • Copper Reaches Five-Week High on Supply Concern After Accident
  • Wheat Gains on Weather Concern as Import Demand Seen Picking Up
  • Cocoa Falls on Speculation Prices Climbed Too Far; Sugar Rises
  • Gold Demand at Degussa Is About Double Average in First Quarter
  • Wheat Exports From India May Plummet as Farmers Hoard Harvest
  • Cotton Moving Average Signals Further Slide: Technical Analysis
  • Freeport Reviews Safety as Copper Rallies Amid Mine Suspension
  • Crude Supplies Decline a Second Week in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Rebar Rises First Time in Three Days on Iron Ore Price Increase
  • Ukraine Counters Russian Cargo Grab With Bond-Sale Cash: Freight
  • Gold ETP Outflows in 2013 Top Additions Over Past Two Years

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more