Still Bullish: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

Takeaway: Our bull case remains the non-consensus one.

This note was originally published May 10, 2013 at 12:09 in Macro

POSITION: 12 LONGS, 7 SHORTS @Hedgeye        

The latest bear market correction lasted for 6 hours of trading. While we’re finally seeing an end to everyone and their brother trying to call the top, we aren’t getting any explicit sell signals other than very immediate-term TRADE overboughts.

The fundamental bull case (#StrongDollar, Commodity Tax Cut, Employment/Housing #GrowthAccelerating) is now strengthening as the market rises. And now Treasuries and Oil are starting to look like Gold did, before the epic fall.

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

  1. Immediate-term TRADE overbought = 1646
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1610
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1535

In other words, I keep getting signals for higher-lows of immediate-term support as the market continues to signal higher all-time highs of resistance.

Our bull case remains the non-consensus one.

 Still Bullish: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX