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CASUAL DINING TRENDS UNINSPIRING

Initial indications are that April may have been another sluggish month for casual dining. For some people this might come as disappointing news. What happened to the Easter “shift” from March to April? Knowing some chains weakness at the end of March, this had shifted to strength in early April. This suggests that balance of April was weak.  

 

Sluggish sales trends are not being borne out in the casual dining stock, which have outperformed the S&P 500 by 340bps over the past month and 1080bps year-to-date.  Over the same time period, the average earnings estimate has increased 1.1% and 3.3%, respectively, implying a significant multiple expansion for the group.

 

Black Box Intelligence released its casual dining numbers for April this week. Same-restaurant sales gained 0.4% in April, versus 0.5% in March, which implied a sequential acceleration in two-year average trends of 70 bps. Sale-restaurant traffic declined -1.7% in April, versus -2% in March, which implied a sequential acceleration in two-year average trends of 80 bps. The “Willingness to Spend” Index, reported by Black Box, also registered a sequential acceleration in April.

 

Our favorite names in the group remain CAKE, EAT, and DRI.

 

CASUAL DINING TRENDS UNINSPIRING - BLACKBOX

 

CASUAL DINING TRENDS UNINSPIRING - cd perf

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Senior Analyst


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 10, 2013   


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or 1.02% downside to 1610 and 0.94% upside to 1642.

                                                                                               

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.64 from 1.59
  • VIX  closed at 13.13 1 day percent change of 3.71%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:25am: Fed’s Evans speaks at Chicago Fed conference
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Bernanke speaks at Chicago Fed conference
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b debt in 2036-2043 sector
  • Noon: WASDE crop report
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Stmt, April, est. $110b (prior $59.1b)
  • 2pm: Fed’s George speaks on economy in Jackson, Wyo.
  • 2pm: G-7 finance ministers, central bankers meet in U.K.

GOVERNMENT:

    • House not in session
    • 8:45am: ADP news conference with Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, to announce report on regional, state private sector employment trends
    • 9am: U.S. Chamber of Commerce economic briefing
    • 10am: Rep. Jim Moran, D-Va., briefing on current human rights situation at Guantanamo

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Icahn, Southeastern challenge Silver Lake’s offer for Dell
  • Dish said to secure Jefferies to help finance Sprint deal
  • SoftBank CEO says Dish’s bid full of “wishful” numbers
  • Yahoo’s Mayer said to explore bid for Hulu
  • Zell sees overvalued cos., fewer opportunities in real estate
  • Schaeuble signals support for easier European austerity at G-7
  • ANA 787 ads aim to lure back flyers as services resume June 1
  • American’s $3.25b in bankruptcy loans win court approval
  • ResCap bankruptcy probe to clarify $25b threat to Ally
  • ABB CEO announces sudden departure for “private reasons”
  • Verizon in talks w/media cos. to subsidize mobile usage
  • SEC money-fund rule said to make riskier funds float shr value
  • Lenovo will debut first African smartphone in Nigeria this yr
  • DuPont CEO weighs pigment swings in considering divestment
  • Mirvac buys GE’s Australian office properties for A$584m
  • U.S. Retail Sales, Pakistan Vote, Cisco: Wk Ahead May 11-18

EARNINGS:

    • Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (LXRX) 6am, $(0.05)
    • Enerplus (ERF CN) 6am, C$0.17
    • TMX Group (X CN) 6am, C$0.78
    • Sirona Dental Systems (SIRO) 6:30am, $0.72
    • EV Energy Partner (EVEP) 6:39am, $0.18
    • Onex (OCX CN) 7am, $0.11
    • Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) 8am, $0.01
    • DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH) 8am, $0.09
    • American States Water (AWR) 8am, $0.52
    • Silver Wheaton (SLW CN) 5:33pm, $0.39

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Rubber Near Bull Market With Yen Breaching 100 as China Restocks
  • Gold Traders Divided Amid Worst ETP Rout Since ’04: Commodities
  • WTI Crude Drops a Second Day; Goldman Sees Brent Gap Narrowing
  • Gold Extends Weekly Decline as Stronger Dollar Curbs Demand
  • Copper Swings Between Gains and Drops Amid Stimulus Speculation
  • Wheat Declines as Rainfall Improves Crop Conditions in Australia
  • Cocoa Falls on Speculation Prices Climbed Too Far; Sugar Gains
  • Vietnam Robusta Crop Seen at Two-Year High as Drought Ends
  • Palm Oil Climbs to Four-Week High as Stockpiles in Malaysia Drop
  • Crude May Fall Next Week as U.S. Stockpiles Climb, Survey Shows
  • Zinc Premiums in Europe Said to Rise as Price Drop Spurs Demand
  • Best Oil Bet Fades as Ecopetrol Guerrilla Peace Elusive: Energy
  • OPEC Crude Production Rises to Five-Month High on Saudi Increase
  • Brent Pressured by U.S. Tripling Crude to Canada: Energy Markets

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Trade of the Day: FXB

Takeaway: We bought FXB, an investment vehicle that the tracks the British Pound, late in the trading day.

We bought FXB today at 3:14pm at a price of $152.49.

 

The British Pound has been shaping up on the long side ever since it was announced that Governor of the Bank of England Swervin' Mervyn King was leaving. We are long the  Bank of England Governor designate, Canada's own Mark Carney, who assumes his new role in July.

 

In Canadian Goalies we (sometimes) trust.

Trade of the Day: FXB - fxb


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Peyto: Top Pick Performing

Peyto Exploration & Development (PEY.CN) remains our best long idea among North American E&Ps, as it has been since May 2012.  We think it’s the best run E&P company, as well as the best risk-adjusted return opportunity, in the entire sector; the 1Q13 results released last night strengthen our conviction.


On the Quarter and Outlook


Peyto delivered another solid quarter with production increasing 11% sequentially to 332 MMcfe/d (89% natural gas).  Cash costs came in at $1.01/Mcfe, which is, again, industry-best.

 

Current production is just over 61,000 boe/d and Peyto has another 5,000 boe/d “behind pipe” that will be brought on as soon as break-up is over (late May).  Assuming some natural decline over the final month of break-up, Peyto should be producing ~64,000 boe/d when those volumes come on-line in June/July.  Year-end 2013 guidance is 62,000 – 67,000 boe/d, but at this point we think 67,000 – 70,000 boe/d is more realistic given where production will be exiting break-up, and the Company’s plan to run 10 rigs all summer and possibly throughout the fall and winter (pending capital efficiencies).  If Peyto does run 10 rigs for the rest of the year (as opposed to the original guidance of 9) we expect full-year capex to come in ~$550MM vs. the $450 – $500MM guide.  With AECO gas around $4.00/Mcf and activity levels in western Canada muted, Peyto is in the sweet spot, and we like to see the Company putting as much capital to work as it can, without compromising efficiency.

 

The big news in the quarter was the 33% dividend increase from $0.72/share annualized to $0.96/share annualized.  We have mixed feelings about the decision – no doubt it will be applauded by the large Canadian investor base which holds dividends near-and-dear to its heart (a sentiment that we do not personally share, but whatever, to each his own), but good stewards of capital (return focused) are rare in the E&P sector and with Peyto being one of the best, we’d like to see that incremental $36MM per year invested back into the asset base.

 

However, we do appreciate that Peyto is growing production 30-40% per year and this year’s capital budget and 10 rig program is the largest in the Company’s history…  Oh yeah, and that it’s doing this with only 40 employees and an annual G&A budget of ~$12MM (including capitalized G&A). 

 

Peyto will be generating free cash flow in 2014, and there’s no reason to pay down the 3.5% credit facility.  If the Company believes it’s growing as fast as it sensibly can, we’re in no place to doubt it, so perhaps the dividend increase was the second best option (we like buybacks better).  Regardless, the fact that this is even a debate is a good thing.    

 

Too Expensive?  Broken Record


We get a lot of push back on valuation on Peyto – almost everyone tells us that it’s “too expensive”.  We heard it at $18/share and we hear it today at $29/share.  Frankly, valuation is one of the last things we consider in this sector because E&P NAVs involve so many assumptions that they’re almost arbitrary, and cash flow multiples can be misleading, as stocks are a claim on decades of earnings, not one year (COG and FST are great examples of misleading multiples).  In this sector, cheap often gets cheaper and expensive stays expensive.  Peyto’s industry-low cost structure, commitment to profitable growth (returns), unique corporate culture of creating shareholder value, and decades of drilling inventory is why we’re so bullish on this name.  If any of that changes, that’s when we’ll sing a different tune. 

 

Stats that Matter

  • Production: 332 MMcfe/d, +35% y/y (per share +26% y/y) and +11% q/q
  • Production mix: 89% gas/11% liquids, flat q/q.  New liquids volumes from the Oldman Deep Cut facility were offset by a higher percentage of Falher and Wilrich wells drilled, which are deeper/gassier zones than the Cardium.
  • Operating expenses (incl. transportation): $0.43/Mcfe, down $0.02 y/y and +$0.01/Mcfe q/q
  • G&A expense: $0.02/Mcfe, down $0.02 y/y and flat q/q.
  • Interest expense: $0.21/Mcfe, down $0.02 y/y and down $0.11 q/q.
  • Funds from operations (discretionary cash flow) were $103MM, or $0.69/share.
  • Capital expenditures were $167MM.
  • Net debt at end of Q: $750MM, +$88MM from 12/31/12

 

Kevin Kaiser

Senior Analyst


Commodity Bubble Bust?

A capital equipment supplier to a cyclical industry is almost always more cyclical than the cyclical industry itself.  Bearish on commodities? Short CAT.

 

 

Summary 

 

At the Ira Sohn conference yesterday, Stanley Druckenmiller put forth an extremely bearish view on commodities.  As we understand it, his thesis is driven by increasing commodity supply and reduced Chinese fixed asset investment.  We in no way claim to be as smart, savvy or good-looking as Mr. Druckenmiller, but we do agree with much of his commodity thesis.  

 

In our March 2013 Mining & Construction Equipment black book, we highlighted an environment that appeared weak for commodity prices and downright terrible for resource-related capital investment.  The data do point to a very negative commodity price environment, but even flat commodity pricing would likely result in large declines in commodity-related capital investment.  Importantly, these are not short-term headwinds, but are rather multi-year, largely unavoidable negatives.

 

A key conclusion is that resource-related capital investment – the key end-market for CAT, KMTUY, Sandvik, JOY and others – is likely to drop by approximately 50%-80% in the next few years (and stay there), not the 10%-20% expected by most bearish forecasts.  Mining and other resource-related capital spending, in aggregate, will not rebound back above 2012 levels this decade, let alone in 2014 or 2015, in our analysis.

 

We highlighted four drivers for the enormous price gains through 2011 that now appear to be reversing:

  • Under investment in the decade prior now met with over investment
  • Slowing Chinese fixed asset investment growth
  • Financial demand from investors, which can be subject to performance chasing
  • Easy monetary policy, which is at the whim of unelected central planners

 

Outlier Price Gains Attract Outlier Supply Growth

 

Copper 

 

Looking at real copper prices, the five year gains by 2010 and 2011 were the highest in over a century.  The gains even exceeded the transition from the Great Depression to World War II.  

 

Commodity Bubble Bust? - yy1

 

 

Not surprisingly, these gains have attracted what we estimate to be the most copper supply growth of the post-war period.  Most of it will come on line in the next few years because it takes 5-10 years to get a mine up and running.

 

Commodity Bubble Bust? - yy2

 

 

And the cash cost of the expected new production is far below current spot prices.

 

Commodity Bubble Bust? - yy3

 

 

While the charts above may not say much about copper prices over the next few weeks or months, the outlook for the next few years appears poor.

 

Iron Ore

 

The over-investment in commodity production goes well beyond copper.  By mass, iron ore has no doubt seen, and will continue to see, the most supply growth.  In the last ~12 years, iron ore prices increased by ~1,000%.   Really, that isn’t a typo.  Iron ore went from being a “rock” to a “commodity” and a Brazilian iron ore company went from being “CVRD” to “Vale.”  If it were not for the Indian production removed from the seaborne market by a series of Indian Supreme Court decisions, among other factors, iron ore would likely be in vast oversupply.

 

Commodity Bubble Bust? - yy4

 

 

Energy

 

Rapid capital investment growth can also be seen in the energy sector, as high oil prices, among other factors, attracted investment in new supply. (h/t Kevin Kaiser, Hedgeye Energy)

 

Commodity Bubble Bust? - yy5

 

 

Already In Oversupply


The judging by the growth total exchange inventories, many of these metal markets are already in over supply before much of the new production comes on stream.  If this continues, it is not good for CAT mining truck orders and it is not a factor that can reverse quickly.

 

Commodity Bubble Bust? - yy6

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment Slowing


Chinese fixed asset investment (FAI) is slowing.  The binge in FAI – a key factor that drove commodity prices higher – appears unable to continue at previous rates for a number of reasons.  We have already witnessed slowing growth and have hosts two excellent expert calls on Chinese financial and environmental regulation.  There is also excellent work here by Darius Dale on the Hedgeye Macro team.

 

Commodity Bubble Bust? - yy7

 

 

Critically, mining and resource expansion plans have come to rely on high levels of FAI demand growth from China, just as it appears to be drying up.  Rapid Chinese FAI growth was initially met with skepticism, but is now a standard assumption in metal demand forecasts.

 

Then again, there is scope for China’s economy to slow down from 2003’s frenetic pace and still achieve relatively high growth rates. The consensus is for an 8% growth in GDP, with a shift in the composition of growth away from investment towards consumption.”  - David Humphreys, Chief Economist, Rio Tinto, 2/4/2004

 

 

Investor Demand

 

Investors have had a very significant demand impact on a number of commodities.  In around 2001, it generally believed that the negative carry of gold in a portfolio was not worth its diversification benefits.  Five years later, following a period of very strong returns, commodities had become an “asset class.”  The problem is that commodities do tend to decline in real terms over time because the technology to produce commodities generally improves.

 

Gold

 

“Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” - Warren Buffett

 

Gold might be an okay short-term inflation hedge, but it is likely a terrible long-term one, at least from current levels.  In the long-term, gold will price at its marginal cost of production.  Said differently, if a buyer can dig it out of the ground for $800, he is not going to pay you $1400 for it.  For new Canadian gold mines, for example, that is actually the cost.

 

The other huge problem for gold is that demand is currently dominated by investors and central banks.  Around one-half of the gold is bought for financial reasons, a far higher ratio than 10 years ago.  If investors and central banks just stopped buying gold (let alone sold) one-half of gold demand would disappear.   That scenario would push marginal demand way down the marginal supply cost curve and probably yield a gold price in the $600-$800 dollar range.  The success of a current long gold position looks dependent on the continued purchases of performance chasing capital allocators.  If prices start to decline, as they have been, the risk of a reflexive tumble appears significant.

 

Commodity Bubble Bust? - yy8

 

 

The gold supply and consumption table is useful, too.

 

 

Commodity Bubble Bust? - yy9

 

 

Monetary Policy

 

If 10Y Treasuries were yielding 12% in the current inflation environment, we would bet that gold and other commodity holdings would look much less tolerable to investors.  Negative real rates on shorter-term low risk government debt definitely lower the opportunity cost bar for commodity holdings.  Experimental monetary policy has no doubt stoked investor fears of inflation, also driving further allocations.  In China and other countries, monetary policy has been used as a tool to stimulate investment in commodity intensive areas of the economy.  A weak dollar, the product of US monetary policy, also has a straight-forward impact on commodity prices.

 

Many excellent analyses of the impact on monetary policy on commodity prices have been put out by the Hedgeye Macro team (a top Q4 2012 Macro Theme, and they would probably note that timing matters).  They have also raised an important point:  with the job market improving at a fast clip, what happens when unemployment hits the fed’s 6.5% trigger level?  It seems likely that, at the margin, some of the easy monetary policy supporting commodity prices would be removed.  It is also likely to be dollar positive.

 

 

Conclusion


Rapidly growing supply, slackening investor demand, slowing Chinese FAI and marginally less accommodative monetary policy all seem poised to pressure commodity prices in coming years.  Even flat commodity prices can be a significant negative for resource-related capital investment.  The prospect of large, multi-year declines in resources-related capital spending leave us convinced that, long term, CAT is both a value trap and short opportunity.

 



CMG NOT A SHORT

If you have been reading out research regularly we are not shy about calling out if we the stock is a compelling short.  We have some shorts on our radar but CMG is not one!

 

Jeff Gundlach recommended CMG as a short at the Sohn Conference.  He has a simple take on the company and its competitive environment, contending, in essence that “a burrito is a burrito”.  Here is a quote from Forbes, reporting on his presentation, that goes some way toward summarizing his view:

 

“a gourmet burrito is an oxymoron... Barriers to entry aren’t all that high, when all that is needed to enter the market is a taco truck... I’m not impressed with [Chipotle’s] earnings growth or its high P/E ratio.”

 

We have a few points that are worth considering before shorting CMG alongside Mr. Gundlach:

  • P/E ratios may be artificially high because of overly-cautious earnings estimates. We think this is the case, currently, for CMG.
  • The company’s service model has redefined the industry and leads to above average margins and returns. Comparing CMG to others in QSR, in this regard, is not helpful.
  • “Food with Integrity” resonates with millennials and is clearly an early move within a much broader industry trend.
  • The barrier to entry point applies to all varieties of food, hamburgers, etc. We do not understand this point.

 

What Would Make CMG a Short?

 

We would short CMG upon gaining conviction that its growth story is faltering. New Unit Volumes are, increasingly, a key metric to follow with respect to future sales trends.  This trend seems to be improving. We were overly gun-shy in January, when this metric was showing signs of turning around, in staying on the sidelines. While earnings revisions continued lower, the stock moved higher in anticipation of better sales growth. As long as the macro environment continues to improve, we believe that this metric will continue on its current trajectory.

 

CMG NOT A SHORT - cmg new unit auv growth

 

CMG NOT A SHORT - CMG sales growth new unit auv growth

 

CMG NOT A SHORT - cmg eeg

 

CMG NOT A SHORT - CMG ROIIC

 

CMG NOT A SHORT - cmg pod 1

 

 

To sum up, here are some of the more CMG important metrics that suggest that CMG is not a short:

  1. Sell-side sentiment has deteriorated over the past year
  2. Buy-side sentiment is negative as shown by high short interest
  3. New store average unit volumes are rising
  4. ROIIC on a TTM basis has stabilized and rising
  5. EBITDA to Cap Ex is 3.0x
  6. 2013E EPS estimates are rising
  7. SSS comparison get easier for the balance of 2013 (and look to be trending positive in the current quarter)
  8. Food inflation is easing
  9. $500 million in cash and no funded debt on the balance sheet
  10. Valuation is rich, but reasonable given the growth model

CMG NOT A SHORT - cmg sentiment historical index

 

We believe investors shorting CMG here will suffer. CMG is a growth story, with easing inflation pressures, high margins and returns, that has seen sentiment sequentially deteriorate over the last year. We expect earnings expectations to increase over the next six months.

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Senior Analyst

 


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