Labor Gains

Takeaway: Not only are overall employment trends improving, today's jobless claims report shows that conditions are improving at an accelerating rate.

Domestic labor market trends continue to improve. In fact, not only are trends improving, they are showing accelerating improvement. 

 

The four-week rolling average in non-seasonally adjusted claims, our preferred judge of trend with respect to underlying conditions in the labor market, improved 95 basis points week-over-week with the year-over-year change in four-week rolling claims improving to -9.4% year-on-year from -8.4% year-on-year the week prior, and -5.9% two weeks prior (note that with respect to jobless claims a negative number is positive as it indicates a decline in job loss).  

 

The current, positive trend in jobless claims continues to overwhelm both the negative seasonal distortion currently present in the data and any negative sequestration related drag.  Note also, the Nonfarm and Private payroll numbers reported by the the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics are net numbers, thus the decline in jobless claims carries a positive read through for the monthly employment figures for May.  

 

Check out the chart below.

 

Labor Gains - 10Y vs NSA Claims 050913

 


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