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As reported last week, Gross Gaming Revenues (“GGR”) grew 13.2% YoY in April to HK$27.5MM, a little better than our last forecast.  While this month benefited from higher than normal hold, the hold percentage was comparable to last April’s so there was minimal impact on YoY growth.  We estimate that including direct play, VIP hold was 3.02% versus a normalized 2.96% and 3.03% in April of 2012. Had VIP hold been normal this April, YoY growth in GGR would’ve grown 11.7%.  With normal VIP hold in both periods, GGR growth would have been 13.4% (similar to what was reported).  We expect GGR growth to pick up in the month of May and are currently projecting high teens growth.

Here’s the detail behind the print:

YOY TABLE OBSERVATIONS

Total table revenue grew 14% YoY.  Mass market growth continued to chug along at its fast pace, up 29% YoY, consistent with the last 11 months.  VIP volume growth was solid at 8% and VIP win grew 8%.

LVS

LVS took the top spot for table revenue growth at 41% for the 3rd consecutive month.  The company had the highest mass revenue growth at 55% and the highest RC VIP growth at 32%.  We estimate that LVS held high across its portfolio at 3.2% compared to 3.0% last April, assuming direct play of 15% vs. 20% last year.  Venetian and FS played lucky.  SCC and Sands Macau played unlucky.

  • Sands grew 7% YoY, the property's best growth in 7 months  
    • Mass grew 4%
    • VIP increased 9%.  
    • Sands held low but had a very easy comp.  We estimate that Sands held at 2.8% compared to 2.2% in the same period last year.  We assume 11% direct play in April vs 9% in April 2012.
    • Junket RC fell 14%
  • Venetian grew 32% YoY, the property's best growth in 15 months
    • Mass increased 35%
    • VIP grew 29%
    • Junket VIP RC fell 5%, its 14th decline in the past 15 months
    • Assuming 27% direct play, hold was 3.7% compared to 2.8% in April 2012, assuming 28% direct play 
  • Four Seasons dropped 13% YoY, marking the 4th consecutive month of declines
    • Mass revenues increased 42%
    • VIP tumbled 18% but Junket VIP RC eked out 1% growth on the back of a very difficult hold comp. April hold (assuming 11% direct play) was 3.5% vs 4.1% in April 2012 when direct play was 16%.
  • Sands Cotai Central produced $204MM in table revenues 
    • Mass a hit new monthly record of $79MM 
    • VIP revenues were $126MM
    • Junket RC volume of $4.1BN, down 13% MoM but the 2nd best month on record for the property
    • If we assume that direct play was 11%, hold would have been 2.7% 

MPEL

MPEL had a solid month, lobbing in the 2nd best table growth of 38%.  Mass grew 21% while VIP growth took the top market spot with 44% growth.  We estimate that MPEL held well at 3.37% vs. 3.05% last April.  Estimated direct play was 12.9% vs. 10.5% last year.

  • Altira revenues grew 30%, the property's best growth rate in 19 months.  Mass fell 2% while VIP saw a 34% YoY increase.
    • VIP RC grew 28%
    • We estimate that hold was 2.9%, compared to 2.7% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenues grew 41% YoY
    • Mass increased 24%, continuing its impressive streak of strong YoY double-digit gains since the property opened
    • VIP win grew 48% and RC grew 29%
    • Assuming a 17.5% direct play level, hold was 3.6% in April compared to 3.2% last year (assuming 14.7% direct play)

WYNN

Wynn had a rough month in April with table revenues falling 18% (worst of 6 concessionaires).

  • VIP revenues fell 25% - also taking the spot for worst performance, while VIP RC declined of 9.3% (2nd worst performer)
  • Wynn suffered from low hold of 2.4% vs 3.0% last year 
  • Mass revenues increased 13%

MGM

MGM had anemic table revenue growth of 4% in April on the back of another month of low hold, although not quite as miserable as the hold they experienced in March

  • We estimate that hold was 2.6% adjusted for direct play of 6% vs hold of 3.2% last year assuming 9% direct play
  • VIP RC growth was strong at 23%
  • Mass growth was above average at 36%

GALAXY

Aside from WYNN, Galaxy was the only other concessionaire who experienced a decline in table revenue this month.  VIP RC had the worst market performance, falling 10%.  On the bright spot, Mass growth was very strong at 54%.  Hold was normal across the portfolio but down YoY; 3.03% in April 2013 vs. 3.27% last year.

  • StarWorld table revenues fell 23%
    • Mass soared 80%
    • VIP fell 33%.  VIP revenues have seen YoY declines in 9 of the last 10 months.
    • Junket RC fell 14%, marking the 11th month of consecutive declines
    • Hold was low at 2.4% vs 3.1% last year
  • Galaxy Macau's table revenues grew 11%
    • Mass had a great month with 55% growth
    • VIP saw a small decline – the first since opening and RC fell 3%.  RC volume growth has been hovering around -1% for the last 9 months.
    • Hold was high at 3.6% vs. 3.5% last year

SJM

Total table revenue grew 16%, with the worst mass market share growth at just 3% and VIP revenue growth of RC 22% and RC growth of just 5%.  SJM held well at 3.15%.

SEQUENTIAL MARKET SHARE

LVS

Market share grew 90bps to 21.9%, the company’s best since January 2010.  April’s share is above LVS’s 6-month average of 21.1% and better than its 2012 average share of 19.0%. 

  • Sands' share fell 60bps to 3.0%.  For comparison purposes, 2012 share was 3.9% and 6M trailing average share was 3.4%.
    • Mass share fell 90bps to 4.6%, an all-time property low
    • VIP rev share fell 60bps to 2.3%
    • RC share was 2.3%, flat MoM and in-line with the all-time low for the property set in March
  • Venetian’s share increased 120bps to 8.6%.  2012 share was 7.9% and 6 month trailing share was 8.3%.
    • Mass share increased 2.2% to 15.9%- the property's best share since October 2010
    • VIP share improved 50bps to 5.5%
    • Junket RC share was flat at 3.5%, only 30bps above the property's all-time low
  • FS gained 130bps to 3.9%.  This compares to 2012 share of 3.7% and 6M trailing average share of 3.2%.
    • VIP gained 2% to 4.8%
    • Mass share fell 50bps to 1.7%
    • Junket RC gained 20bps to 4.0%
  • Sands Cotai Central's table market share fell 90bps to 6.0%, which compares to the 6M trailing average share of 5.8%.
    • Mass share improved 40bps to 7.8%.
    • VIP share fell 1.4% to 5.3%
    • Junket RC share fell 30bps to 5.6%

MPEL

MPEL took the top spot for market share growth, with a whopping 16.3%- the company’s best share in 2 years and above their 6 month trailing share of 14.0% and their 2012 share of 13.5%.  

  • Altira’s share rose 30bps to 4.0%, above its 6M and 12M trailing share of 3.9%
    • Mass share increased 20bps to 1.3%
    • VIP gained 50bps to 5.2%
    • VIP RC share rose 30bps to 5.6%
  • CoD’s share gained 2.6% to 12.3%- a record high for the property and above the property’s 2012 and 6M trailing share of 9.4% and 10.0%, respectively.
    • Mass market share fell to 11.0%
    • VIP share soared 4.1% to 12.8%, the property's highest share since September 2009
    • Junket share ticked up 20bps to 9.5%

WYNN

Wynn was the largest share donor in April, losing 170bps and dropping to 9.4%, an all-time low in share.  2012 average share was 11.9% and their 6M trailing average share has been 11.0%.

  • Mass share was fell 60bps to 7.8%
  • VIP share plunged 2.3% to 9.8%, an all-time low for WYNN
  • Junket RC share increased 90bps to 11.7%

MGM 

MGM’s market share was flat at 8.9%; below their 6M average of 9.6% and above their 2012 share of 9.9%

  • Mass share fell 80bps to 7.4%
  • VIP share improved 20bps to 9.2%
  • Junket RC fell 90bps to 10.8%

GALAXY

Galaxy's share fell 80bps to 17.6%, below their 2012 average share of 19.0% and their 6-month average of 17.9%

  • Galaxy Macau share improved 0.5% to 10.8%
    • Mass share gained 1.1% to 10.8%, an all-time property high
    • VIP share improved 30bps to 10.8%
    • RC share lost 10bps to 9.8%
  • Starworld share lost 150bps to 5.8%, the property's worst share since May 2008
    • Mass share was flat at 3.8%
    • VIP share fell 2% to 6.6%
    • RC share fell 50bps higher to 8.8%

SJM

SJM was the 2nd largest share donor, losing 110bps MoM to 25.9%, which is below their 2012 average of 26.7% and their 6M trailing average of 26.4%.

  • Mass market share improved 40bps to 25.4%, an all-time company low
  • VIP share fell 150bps to 27.1%
  • Junket RC share increased 50bps to 27.8%

Slot Revenue

Slot revenue grew only 3% YoY to $146MM in April.

  • Galaxy had the best growth at 38% to $20MM
  • LVS grew of 12% to $44MM
  • WYNN lost 2% YoY to $22MM
  • SJM also fell 2% to $14MM
  • MPEL dropped 6% to $25MM
  • MGM had the worst YoY slot performance, losing 18% to $21MM

MACAU APRIL DETAILS - MONTH2

MACAU APRIL DETAILS - MONTH1

MACAU APRIL DETAILS - MONTH3