BYD: NICE!

Preliminary thoughts:

  • EPS of $0.15 beat our Street high estimate of $0.13 and the Street at $0.08
  • Solid top line and bottom line beat
  • Exceeded our EBITDA estimate at every property and region, except LV locals which was in-line
  • Numbers like this take the covenant issue out of play (BYD could still de-lever by buying back discounted bonds if they need to)
  • Forward commentary corroborates "less bad" thesis
  • "In our Las Vegas Locals region, we are beginning to see signs of stabilization" - cracks the last pole of the short thesis tent
  • Our FCF projection per share projection of $2.90 may go higher
  • Despite the huge run, a FCF yield of 25% suggests BYD's stock could still double from here