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Not a great quarter out of WYNN when "luck" is taken out of the equation.  However, in this market with the momentum surrounding the sector, no quarter is a bad quarter.  We were not impressed, however, and WYNN may face a more difficult Q2 than some of the other players.  Here are some preliminary thoughts.

  • WYNN did better in Las Vegas than we thought but still below the Street. Slot hold % was higher than normal. Table hold percentage of 18% appears low, but in this environment 18-20% is probably normal, not 21-24%. If we give them credit at a table hold of 20% and normalize the slot hold %, LV EBITDA would've been $53 million instead of the actual of $44 million
  • Macau was strong but the hold % was pretty high on both the Rolling Chip and Mass Market business. EBITDA of $114 million would've been $20-25 million lower assuming a normalized hold percentage, below the Street at $103 million.
  • In LV, WYNN is very reliant on room rates and his have farther to fall than the rest of the Strip.
  • In Macau, WYNN maintains large exposure to the Rolling Chip business which is the segment most under pressure.
  • We are assuming the discussion surrounding Las Vegas will center around a "less bad" thesis, similar to MGM.
  • WYNN lost 3-4 percentage points of market share in Macau in April. It will be interesting to see how this is addressed on the call