Hedgeye - THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 1, 2013

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or 1.41% downside to 1575 and 0.78% upside to 1610.

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

YIELD CURVE: 1.46 from 1.46
VIX closed at 13.52 1 day percent change of -1.39%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 26 (prior 0.2%)
8:15am: ADP Employment Change, April, est. 150k (prior 158k)
8:58am: Markit US PMI Final, April, est. 52.0
10am: Construction Spending M/m, March, est. 0.6% (prior 1.2%)
10am: ISM Manufacturing, April, est. 50.6 (prior 51.3)
10am: ISM Prices Paid, April, est. 52.6 (prior 54.5)
10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
2pm: FOMC meeting ends today, est. 0.25% (prior 0.25%)
5pm: Total Vehicle Sales, April, est. 15.30m (prior 15.22m)
5pm: Domestic Vehicle Sales, April, est. 12.00m (prior 12.00m)

GOVERNMENT:

House, Senate not in session
Treasury announces quarterly refunding plans for govt operations, may comment on U.S. debt; Obama in Feb. signed legislation suspending $16.4t debt limit through May 18
FOMC releases policy statement at close of two-day meeting

WHAT TO WATCH

Fed seen slowing stimulus with QE cut to $50b by yr-end
PREVIEW April Auto Sales: SAAR may post 6th month above 15m
U.S. manufacturing probably grew at slower pace in April
Facebook seen reporting sales jump as mobile-ad options expand
T-Mobile USA to debut on NYSE today after MetroPCS combination
ING U.S. unit prepares IPO led by “unsung heroes” of AIG bailout
SEC weighs cross-border swap rules amid calls to restrict reach
BMC Software gets >$6.5b bid from Bain, Golden Gate: Reuters
Schwab sues BofA, other banks over alleged Libor manipulation
China manufacturing expanded at weaker pace in April
Yahoo discussions over Dailymotion stall, French official says
DreamWorks posts surprise 1Q profit aided by “The Croods”

EARNINGS:

Haemonetics (HAE) 6am, $0.46
Iron Mountain (IRM) 6am, $0.27
ADT (ADT) 6am, $0.43
Humana (HUM) 6am, $1.80
Knight Capital Group (KCG) 6am, $0.04
Genesee & Wyoming (GWR) 6am, $0.89
Coventry Health Care (CVH) 6:30am, $0.81
Blackbaud (BLKB) 6:30am, $0.20
Progressive Waste Solutions (BIN CN) 6:30am, $0.20
Loblaw (L CN) 6:30am, C$0.47
SPX (SPW) 6:30am, $0.26
CVS Caremark (CVS) 7am, $0.79 - Preview
Merck (MRK) 7am, $0.79 - Preview
Time Warner (TWX) 7am, $0.74 - Preview
Radian (RDN) 7am, $(0.09)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) 7am, $0.25 - Preview
WEX (WEX) 7am, $0.96
Amtrust Financial (AFSI) 7am, $0.73
Jean Coutu Group (PJC/A CN) 7am, C$0.26
American Tower (AMT) 7am, $0.82
Jones Group (JNY) 7am, $0.15
Comcast (CMCSA) 7am, $0.51 - Preview
El Paso Electric (EE) 7am, $0.12
Viacom (VIAB) 7am, $0.95 - Preview
AllianceBernstein (AB) 7:02am, $0.36
Avista (AVA) 7:05am, $0.69
ViroPharma (VPHM) 7:30am, $0.17
Hyatt Hotels (H) 7:30am, $0.08
Energizer (ENR) 7:30am, $1.28
Hospira (HSP) 7:30am, $0.44 - Preview
Sealed Air (SEE) 7:30am, $0.18
Exelon (EXC) 7:30am, $0.68
Clean Harbors (CLH) 7:30am, $0.33
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) 7:30am, $1.97
MSCI (MSCI) 7:30am, $0.54
Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) 8am, $0.19
Cott (BCB CN) 8am, $0.09
Devon Energy (DVN) 8am, $0.55 - Preview
Mastercard (MA) 8am, $6.17
Phillips 66 (PSX) 8am, $1.89 - Preview
Arrow Electronics (ARW) 8am, $0.88
IPG Photonics (IPGP) 8am, $0.70
KKR Financial (KFN) 8:20am, $0.35
Clorox (CLX) 8:30am, $1.05
Rowan (RDC) 8:30am, $0.52
PDC Energy (PDCE) 8:30am, $0.16
MFA Financial (MFA) 8:30am, $0.21
Allergan (AGN) 9am, $0.96
Expeditors Intl of Washington (EXPD) 9am, $0.39
Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) Bef-mkt, $0.17
Cameco (CCO CN) Bef-mkt, C$0.08
Unum Group (UNM) 4pm, $0.78
Covance (CVD) 4pm, $0.72
MedAssets (MDAS) 4pm, $0.29
Walter Energy (WLT) 4pm, $(0.90) - Preview
Equity One (EQY) 4pm, $0.29
Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) 4pm, $0.20
Genpact (G) 4pm, $0.22
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) 4pm, $(1.46)
Kimco Realty (KIM) 4:01pm, $0.32
CBS (CBS) 4:01pm, $0.68 - Preview
New Gold (NGD CN) 4:01pm, $0.10
Impax Laboratories (IPXL) 4:01pm, $0.20
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) 4:01pm, $0.97
Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD) 4:01pm, $(0.08)
Synchronoss Technologies (SNCR) 4:01pm, $0.28
DexCom (DXCM) 4:01pm, $(0.17)
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 4:01pm, $0.67 - Preview
Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) 4:02pm, $0.32
Shutterfly (SFLY) 4:02pm, $(0.14)
Pharmacyclics (PCYC) 4:02pm, $0.21
MetLife (MET) 4:03pm, $1.30
CACI International (CACI) 4:05pm, $1.65
Allstate (ALL) 4:05pm, $1.30
Con-way (CNW) 4:05pm, $0.27
Atmel (ATML) 4:05pm, $0.03
Hanger (HGR) 4:05pm, $0.26
Tetra Tech (TTEK) 4:05pm, $0.40
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) 4:05pm, $0.11
Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) 4:05pm, $1.19
Sovran Self Storage (SSS) 4:05pm, $0.83
Corporate Executive Board (CEB) 4:05pm, $0.63
Endurance Specialty (ENH) 4:05pm, $1.09
ExlService (EXLS) 4:05pm, $0.40
PHH (PHH) 4:05pm, $0.39
Facebook (FB) 4:05pm, $0.13 - Preview
Visa (V) 4:05pm, $1.81
Yelp (YELP) 4:05pm, $(0.06)
Rovi (ROVI) 4:05pm, $0.46
Prudential Financial (PRU) 4:07pm, $1.88
Lincoln National (LNC) 4:10pm, $1.10
Boston Beer (SAM) 4:10pm, $0.62
SS&C Technologies (SSNC) 4:10pm, $0.43
Western Gas Partners (WES) 4:10pm, $0.38
Fidelity National (FNF) 4:15pm, $0.40
Northeast Utilities (NU) 4:15pm, $0.66
Intrepid Potash (IPI) 4:15pm, $0.19
KAR Auction Services (KAR) 4:15pm, $0.32
C&J Energy Services (CJES) 4:20pm, $0.57
Atwood Oceanics (ATW) 4:30pm, $1.22
Essex Property Trust (ESS) 4:30pm, $1.88
Concur Technologies (CNQR) 4:30pm, $0.24
Charles River Laboratories (CRL) 4:30pm, $0.71
Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA) 4:30pm, $0.48
Eagle Rock Energy (EROC) 4:30pm, $0.08
CVR Partners (UAN) 4:30pm, $0.47
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) 4:30pm, $1.12
Tesoro (TSO) 4:31pm, $0.70
Avis Budget (CAR) 4:35pm, $0.02
RenaissanceRe (RNR) 4:45pm, $3.04
BioMed Realty Trust (BMR) 4:45pm, $0.39
Marriott International (MAR) 5pm, $0.40
WGL Holdings (WGL) 5pm, $1.47
Canfor (CFP CN) 5pm, C$0.49
TeleTech Holdings (TTEC) 5pm, $0.31
Triumph Group (TGI) 5pm, $1.60
Orient-Express Hotels (OEH) 5pm, $(0.13)
Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS) 5pm, $0.30
Constellation Software (CSU CN) 5pm, $1.74
Concho Resources (CXO) 5pm, $0.78
Murphy Oil (MUR) 5pm, $0.98
Atmos Energy (ATO) 5:01pm, $1.32
PolyOne (POL) 5:05pm, $0.26
Integrys Energy (TEG) 5:08pm, $1.60
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) 5:12pm, $(0.04)
Vectren (VVC) 5:30pm, $0.67
MDU Resources (MDU) 5:45pm, $0.23
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Aft-mkt, $0.50
Curtiss-Wright (CW) Aft-mkt, $0.41
Pengrowth Energy (PGF CN) Aft-mkt, C$0.01
Macerich (MAC) Aft-mkt, $0.79
Pason Systems (PSI CN) Aft-mkt, C$0.35
CVR Refining (CVRR) Aft-mkt, $1.58
Western Gas Equity Partners (WGP) Aft-mkt, $0.12
HudBay Minerals (HBM CN) Aft-mkt, C$0.02
Bell Aliant (BA CN) Aft-mkt, C$0.40
Realogy Holdings (RLGY) Aft-mkt, $(0.44)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

Gold ETP Holdings Cap Record Drop Wiping $17.9 Billion in Assets
China Affair With Cheap Diamonds Heats Mass Market: Commodities
U.S. Mint Sales of Gold Coins Advance to Highest in Three Years
Brent Crude Declines a Second Day as Global Supplies Increase
Copper Slides on Weaker-Than-Estimated Chinese Manufacturing
Gold Falls as Investors Weigh Fed Meeting With ETP Holdings Drop
Wheat Slides as World Supply Rebound Makes Up for Kansas Losses
Sugar Swings in New York on Delivery Speculation; Cocoa Stable
Cash for Doomed Crops Means U.S. Farmers Avoid Disaster Costs
Biofuel Pioneer Forsakes Renewables to Make Gas-Fed Fuel: Energy
Biggest Brazil Smelter Says Copper Demand Is Exceeding Capacity
WTI Set to Tumble If It Fails to Breach $100: Technical Analysis
Cocoa Deliveries From Brazil’s Bahia Little Changed: Hartmann
Cheapest Europe Naphtha Seen Losing Asian Luster: Energy Markets

CURRENCIES

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

EUROPEAN MARKETS

ASIAN MARKETS

MIDDLE EAST

The Hedgeye Macro Team