DUELING “BIG CAPS”

WYNN is a great company but at least for Q1, LVS may shine the brighter light in an otherwise dark economic quarter.  As we wrote about in our 4/14/09 note, "LVS:  Q1 SHOULD LOOK BETTER THAN WYNN", LVS should benefit from its convention exposure, easier comparisons, market share gains in Macau, and faster and deeper cost cutting. 

WYNN, on the other hand, is probably most susceptible to room rate cuts on the Strip since its Las Vegas properties generate a higher percentage of its profits from the hotel.  Moreover, the company was hurt by Encore cannibalization of Wynn Las Vegas and the drastic rate cuts designed to attract visitors to the added hotel supply.  In Macau, Wynn Macau maintains more exposure to the softer Rolling Chip segment which is facing very difficult, liquidity-driven comparisons.

WYNN will report EPS tomorrow morning while LVS is reporting after the close tomorrow.  The chart below details the year-over-year projected Q1 growth as implied by our models.  Clearly, LVS should have a much better ("less bad") quarter than WYNN, maybe even better than our projections.

DUELING “BIG CAPS” - LVS and WYNN comp q1