In preparation for WYN's F1Q 2013 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.




  • As we grow internationally, specifically in countries such as China, there will be a dilutive impact on global RevPAR.
  • [Wyndham Exchange and Rentals] Excluding FX movements and acquisitions, adjusted EBITDA would be up slightly for the  year reflecting the weak economic conditions in Europe and the continued challenges in the broader timeshare industry
  • WVO will have difficult year-over-year comparisons in the first quarter based on an exceptionally strong quarter one in 2012 and the timing of some expenses on the sales side.
  • In the Rental business, the four tuck-in acquisitions we completed since August 2012 will add to our growth and represent new markets for the organic growth of this business. We see some macro challenges in Europe during 2013 in the Rental business, but we believe we have  budgeted and planned for these challenges appropriately in our guidance.
  • The deal pipeline is about the same as it was last year. It was pretty strong last year. We got a couple of deals done. We're not looking at anything that is much different from what we've done in the past.  But when we talk about tuck-ins, tuck-ins can be larger than $80 million or $30 million or $20 million
  • We haven't changed our capital allocation policy… We will keep our leverage ratio around 3.2 the way that the agencies calculate it, or 3.3, and that will allow us to add on more debt as we increase our EBITDA, which we said we would do because we don't look to improve that rating, but we want to stay where we are right now in investment grade

2013 guidance

  • Revenues of $4.925 - $5.100 billion
  • EBITDA of $1.140 - $1.165 billion
  • EPS of $3.57 - $3.70
  • Weighted average diluted shares of 140 million

Two Formations

Client Talking Points

Bullish Formation

There's a lot to get bullish on these days. The US dollar is certainly worth getting behind as commodities get destroyed across the board. You've saw what can happen to gold and copper is getting a beatdown that's even more severe. US equities are another market in bullish formation, and we like the S&P 500, Consumer Discretionary (XLY), US Consumer Staples (XLP), US Healthcare (XLV) and individual stocks by the way of Nike (NKE) and Starbucks (SBUX).

Bearish Formation

Now, it may seem obvious at this point but commodities are in bearish formation. We've been bearish on commodities for some time now as one of our big global macro themes. Particularly, we like shorting gold (GLD) and gold miners (GDX). We're also bearish on individual names like Freeport (FCX). And then we have Japan, where the Yen (FXY) has been in bearish formation for sometime thanks to the Bank of Japan's planning. Russia and Brazil are also in bearish formation due to their correlation with the commodity markets.

Asset Allocation


Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration

Decent earnings visibility, stabilized market share, and aggressive share repurchases should keep a floor on the stock.  Near-term earnings, potentially big orders from Oregon and South Dakota, and news of proliferating gaming domestically could provide near term catalysts for a stock that trades at only 11x EPS.  We believe that multiple is unsustainably low – and management likely agrees given the buyback – for a company with the balance sheet and strong cash flow as IGT.  Given private equity’s interest in WMS (they lost out to SGMS) – a company similar to IGT that unlike IGT generates little free cash – we wouldn’t rule out a privatizing transaction to realize the inherent value in this company. 


With FedEx Express margins at a 30+ year low and 4-7 percentage points behind competitors, the opportunity for effective cost reductions appears significant. FedEx Ground is using its structural advantages to take market share from UPS. FDX competes in a highly consolidated industry with rational pricing. Both the Ground and Express divisions could be separately worth more than FDX’s current market value, in our view. 


HOLX remains one of our favorite longer-term fundamental growth companies given growing penetration of its 3D Tomo platform and high leverage to the 2014 Insurance Expansion from the Affordable Care Act.

Three for the Road


"We do not want you to buy $CAT" -@KeithMcCullough


"Defining and analyzing humor is a pastime of humorless people." -Robert Benchly


Netflix shares rally 25% after earnings beat expectations.

Commodity Deflation

This note was originally published at 8am on April 09, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“We can’t afford to risk a downturn, no matter how much inflation.”

-Richard Nixon


Nixon’s legacy is Watergate. Trivial Pursuit presidential history doesn’t yet appreciate how horrendous he was for the US economy. On matters of economic policy, this guy was easily the most conflicted, conniving, and compromised president in the post WWII period.


If you’d like to re-educate yourself on the what, when and why (Nixon’s economic policies), chapter 4 “Gamble” of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence is a beauty. The aforementioned quote came from Nixon during his 1972 re-election campaign.


Prior to that (1971), Nixon had already abandoned the Gold Standard and explicitly devalued the US Dollar. On the fiscal policy side, he hired a Democrat from Texas who polled well (John Connolly) to be Treasury Secretary. Connolly wrote later, “I was not an economist; I had really never studied monetary affairs. My experience with fiscal issues was limited largely to a familiarity with Congress…” (Volcker, pg 74)


Back to the Global Macro Grind


Why do we care about the context of politicized currency devaluations (and the local inflations they drive) this morning? Well, because the only opportunity the US economy has to grow (on a real inflation adjusted basis) is through pervasive Commodity Deflation. It’s a Tax Cut.


To be balanced, cracker jack economists who have never traded a market in their life (i.e. don’t understand price expectations) want you to believe that currency devaluation will give you the elixir of an exported life. Now that the Japanese Yen is crashing (-24% from where we made the short call in 2012), they’ll have to let us know how that is going for the Japanese consumer who isn’t levered long Nikkeis.


The biggest Global Macro calls for 2013 YTD have been centered squarely on understanding the causal impact central planners have on their domestic currency:

  1. Get the central plan right, you get the currency right
  2. Get the currency right, you get the correlation right
  3. Get the correlation right, you get the money

“Show me the money!” –Tom Cruise


To review, the US Dollar has been strengthening ever since Bernanke tried to promise to print to infinity and beyond (SEP2012):

  1. MONETARY POLICY: Since, on the margin, market expectations for an iQe5 upgrade have been crushed (see Gold chart)
  2. FISCAL POLICY: after plenty of political spending wants, the US actually implemented marginally hawkish spending cuts

Again, if you get policy (monetary and fiscal) right, you’re going to likely get the local currency move right. On the margin is what matters most in macro, and when you combine marginally hawkish domestic policy with relatively dovish competing policy (Japan), ta-dah!


Japan’s currency devaluation is very easy to understand (primarily because Japan’s #PoliticalClass is doing precisely what America’s did):

  1. MONETARY POLICY: hit CTRL+P (print) and step that Japanese debt monetization up to 50 TRILLION more Yens (a year)
  2. FISCAL POLICY: get the LDP to take the Upper House in this summer’s election and implement “spend your brains out 2.0”

In other words, even if we are dead wrong on the USA’s marginal policy shifts in 2013, we could be right on our #StrongDollar via the rate of change in Japanese policy. Layer on some European Marxism onto the Euro, and I have myself quite a Keynesian treat.


Hedgeye Playbook: how do you make money on this?

  1. Long US Dollars vs Short Yens
  2. Short Commodities (they have hyper high inverse correlations to #StrongDollar)
  3. Long Asian and US Consumption Equities

Some of our competitors can pop this in their next report. “Last night the Chinese reported more of the same on this front. #StrongDollar = Down Food Prices (globally) = Down Inflation (for countries that have a US Dollar peg).” Chinese CPI fell from 3.2% in FEB to 2.1% in MAR – and yes, that is better than a bad thing for people who don’t take government car service to work and have to eat.


I shorted Wheat (WEAT) on the bounce yesterday (unlike trying to call tops in the SP500, it’s always easier to short things that have already started going down – Wheat prices are down -8.4% YTD). Corn and soybean prices are down -9.3% and -2.9% YTD, respectively.


Brent Oil is down -5.7% YTD – but seriously? Who cares about these YTD Commodity Deflations when you can look at how epic they’ve been since Wall Street front-running Bernanke on Commodity prices ended (in food prices especially) at their all-time highs of September 2012? On a 6 month basis, Corn and Wheat are down -14.6% and -17.2%, respectively.


Nixon had it wrong – so did Charles de Gaulle, Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush. President Obama, like Clinton, has a choice on monetary and fiscal policy in his second term. Will he risk the Big Auto lobby for a weak currency? Folks, we need a #StrongDollar and Commodity Deflation. Oh yessir – Yes We Can.


Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, USD/YEN, UST 10yr Yield, VIX, and SP500 are now $1544-1585, $103.19-108.02, $82.42-83.39, 95.23-99.31, 1.71-1.83%, 12.21-14.43, and 1551-1573, respectively.


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Commodity Deflation - Chart of the Day


Commodity Deflation - Virtual Portfolio

investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

Context Matters

“Content is often best judged in context.”

-Eric Chaisson


That’s one of my favorite thoughts from a book I have been citing as of late, Cosmic Evolution, by Eric Chaisson. In terms of how I apply it to my market model, research and risk factors are my content - time is my context.


Time and space - so valuable to contextualize, yet so susceptible to error. In this regard, risk managing markets isn’t unlike playing professional sports. As Vince Lombardi said, inches make champions. Timing matters, indeed.


This, of course, is not a unique thought process. It’s effectively the difference between Newton and Darwin. “Unlike events in classical Newtonian physics, which are time-independent, reversible, and ahistorical, in Darwinism the past history of a system contributes to its subsequent properties” (Chaison, pg31). In other words, context matters too.


Back to the Global Macro Grind


When I say that our Global Macro Risk Management process is multi-factor and multi-duration, this is what I mean. We are a content company that contextualizes risk.


That doesn’t mean we are always right – it just means we tend to be less wrong on big stuff than most others. That’s probably because we start with the timing signal, and reverse commute on the research from there.


One of our core focuses in risk management is what Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger used to champion as Rule #1 – “Don’t Lose Money” – and maybe that’s why they love the insurance business so much. Essentially, we sell insurance too.


Insurance questions: what assets are bullish or bearish on our (TRADE/TREND/TAIL) model?


1.   Bullish Formations (bullish on all 3 of our core durations - TRADE, TREND, and TAIL)

A)     US Dollar (UUP)

B)      SP500 (SPY)

C)      US Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

D)     US Consumer Staples (XLP)

E)      US Healthcare (XLV)

F)      Starbucks (SBUX) and Nike (NKE)


2.   Bearish Formations (bearish on all 3 core risk management durations)

A)     Commodities (CRB Index)

B)      Gold and Gold Miners (GLD and GDX)

C)      Silver and Copper (SLV and JJC)

D)     Japanese Yen (FXY)

E)      Basic Materials and Energy (XLB and XLE)

F)      Russia (RSX) and Brazil (EWZ)


As a result, I think our version of Global Macro Storytelling has been succinct for the last 5-6 months. On both the long and short side, there’s a little bit of everything for everyone here. That helps make it less confusing.


The big thing about big things in macro is that they can last. That’s why the questions I wrestle with throughout my day largely surround what could change what I think is currently both causal and correlated:


1.       What stops the US Dollar from going up?

2.       What stops the Euro and Yen (vs USD) from going down?

3.       What stops Bernanke’s Bubbles (Commodities) from popping?


Again, since I start with the signal and not the research noise, what I really need to do here is be patient. Just wait and watch for any and/or all of these three things from stopping on both my TRADE and TREND durations.


This morning’s signals marry up quite nicely to more of the same on the research content front:

  1. Chinese and German PMI growth data for April slowed sequentially versus March
  2. European #GrowthSlowing (Spain GDP -2% y/y and Swedish unemployment up to 8.4%)
  3. Oil, Copper, and Corn prices fall further on said “demand” slowing, as the USD rises

So, if you can’t put money in Emerging Markets like China (we’ll be hosting our #EmergingOutflows Macro Theme Conference Call at 11AM EST, ping for access), and you aren’t buying European Equities and/or Commodities because they are bearish on both our TRADE and TREND durations, what do you buy?


Markets chase price. Gravity (fund flows), like content and context, matters. The global macro flows continue into US Dollars, US Treasuries, and yes, US Consumption Equities. I’ve tried to fight gravity in markets – it rarely works.


Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), Copper, US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, VIX, and SP500 are now $1, $96.04-101.08, $3.06-3.26, $82.42-83.19, $1.29-1.31, 1.65-1.76%, 14.07-18.76, and 1, respectively.


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Context Matters - Chart of the Day


Context Matters - Virtual Portfolio


The Macau Metro Monitor, April 23, 2013




Visitor arrivals increased slightly by 1.6% YoY to 2,387,281.  Mainland visitors totaled 1,431,810, with 40.7% travelling to Macao under the Individual Visit Scheme.  The average length of stay of visitors stood at 1.0 day.





The cross-party casino group aims to submit a promotional bill to parliament in the autumn, which could be followed by concrete laws within two years, said Takeshi Iwaya, the deputy head of the lobby of more than 100 lawmakers.  The group will introduce Hiroyuki Hosoda, a veteran LDP lawmaker and former chief cabinet secretary, as its new chairman at a meeting on Wednesday.  Hosoda will have the ear of the administration, an important piece of the puzzle that has been lacking in recent years, Iwaya said.  Popular Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has indicated he is open to the idea of casino resorts.



"You need both sides of the equation before things really get moving. We want to make that happen this year," said Iwaya, whose group is proposing an integrated resorts model that incorporates tourism, conventions and entertainment, as well as casino gambling - an approach based in part on the strategy adopted by Singapore when it opened its first casino in 2010.



Yet many analysts remain sceptical there is enough political support.  An attempt to introduce a casino bill last year to help fund rebuilding of the earthquake-hit northeast fizzled in the face of the December poll.  One potential complicating factor is the Japan Restoration Party, formed last year by popular Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, which has said it may introduce a bill on its own even though its lawmakers are members of the cross-party group.  


Casino legislation could be submitted around September after an upper house election expected in July.  At the very least, a bill would face resistance from the Communist and Social Democratic parties, both of which worry about crime and other harmful side effects on society.



Number of Changi passengers rose 7.7% YoY in March.



Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.67%