THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 22, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or 1.49% downside to 1532 and 0.82% upside to 1568.       

                                                                                                                        

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.50 from 1.48
  • VIX closed at 14.97 1 day percent change of -14.75%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, March (prior 0.44)
  • 8:30am: Fed’s Dudley speaks at economic conference in New York
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, March, est. 5m (prior 4.98m)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $3b-$3.75b notes in 2019-2020 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3M bills, $28b 6M bills
  • U.S. Weekly Rates Agenda                               

GOVERNMENT:

    • ITC may issue decision in Apple-Google patent dispute
    • Senate Judiciary Cmte holds a hearing on legislation that would set up criteria for those now in U.S. illegally as step toward citizenship
    • Secretary of State John Kerry attends NATO foreign ministers summit in Brussels
    • Martin Dempsey, chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, visits Beijing as U.S. seeks greater Chinese pressure on N. Korea
    • Washington Week Ahead

WHAT TO WATCH

  • IMF talks over wknd included fight over new debt targets
  • S&P early victory in U.S. ratings fraud suit seen as unlikely
  • Dealers say no end to QE in 2013, Hatzius sees ’16 rates rise
  • ABB to buy Power-One for $1b to add solar inverters
  • ANA to finish 787 battery repairs by May after FAA approval
  • Elan board unanimously rejects Royalty Pharma takeover offer
  • Sales of U.S. existing homes probably climbed for 3rd month
  • THQ files bankruptcy plan paying creditors from asset sales
  • Bernanke to miss Jackson Hole symposium on schedule conflict
  • Allstate said to seek offers for Lincoln Benefit business
  • BP may delay development of GoM Mad Dog 2 oil field
  • Netflix seen cracking down on acct sharing to bolster profit
  • Argentina bondholder rejection sets up U.S. court ruling
  • China Premier Li urges focus on rescue as quake toll mounts
  • Mining in region was halted, Xinhua said; Toyota temporarily stopped production at Chengdu plant
  • “Oblivion” is top weekend movie with $38m in NA sales
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Media/Ent, Real Estate, Transports
  • North American M&A Agenda
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • Weekly Eco Preview: Growth in U.S. probably picked up in 1Q
  • GDP, Apple, Exxon, BOJ, Iron Man 3: Wk Ahead April 22-27

EARNINGS:

    • Hasbro (HAS) 6:30am, $0.04 - Preview
    • Bank of Hawaii (BOH) 6am, $0.87
    • Caterpillar (CAT) 7:30am, $1.38 - Preview
    • Halliburton (HAL) 7am, $0.57 - Preview
    • NVR (NVR) 8:50am, $7.86
    • Lennox International (LII) 8am, $0.27
    • Six Flags Entertainment (SIX) 8am, $(1.75)
    • BancorpSouth (BXS) 4pm, $0.21
    • Hexcel (HXL) 4pm, $0.41
    • Swift Transportation (SWFT) 4pm, $0.16
    • United Stationers (USTR) 4pm, $0.55
    • Woodward (WWD) 4pm, $0.60
    • Canadian National Railway (CNR CN) 4:01pm, $1.21 - Preview
    • Ameriprise Financial (AMP) 4:05pm, $1.57
    • Illumina (ILMN) 4:05pm, $0.38
    • Netflix (NFLX) 4:05pm, $0.20 - Preview
    • Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) 4:05pm, C$0.77 - Preview
    • Zions Bancorporation (ZION) 4:10pm, $0.40
    • Rent-A-Center (RCII) 4:15pm, $0.87
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) 4:30pm, $0.30
    • Brookfield Canada Office (BOX-U CN) 5pm, C$0.39
    • Packaging of America (PKG) 5pm, $0.56
    • Crane (CR) 5:15pm, $1.03
    • IDEX (IEX) 5:22pm, $0.71
    • BBCN Bancorp (BBCN) Aft-mkt, $0.27
    • MB Financial (MBFI) Aft-mkt, $0.42
    • Pennsylvania REIT (PEI) Aft-mkt, $0.43

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Advances for Fifth Day in Longest Winning Streak This Year
  • Hedge Fund Gold Wagers Defy Worst Slump in 33 Years: Commodities
  • Brent Below $100 a Fifth Day as U.S. Funds Reduce Bullish Bets
  • Copper Falls as Lower Imports Into China Stoke Demand Concern
  • Sugar Falls as Investor Buying Fails to Spur Rally; Cocoa Gains
  • China Sugar Stockpile Plan to Reduce Need for Imports, Jia Says
  • Corn Slumps to One-Week Low on Demand Concerns for U.S. Grain
  • Thai Sugar Premium Drops as Futures Rise in New York: Green Pool
  • Shanghai Gold Exchange Benchmark Contract Volume Jumps to Record
  • Bullish Crude Wagers Drop the Most in Two Months: Energy Markets
  • Singapore’s SGX Said to Gauge Demand for LNG Futures Trading
  • Tata Faces Crisis as $20 Billion Spent on Water: Corporate India
  • WTI Crude May Rebound in Weekly ‘Triangle’: Technical Analysis
  • N.Z. Set for More Rainfall as Residents Assess Weekend Damage

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7A

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more