MACAU: STRENGTH RESUMES

Ave daily table revenues (ADTR) increased sequentially from HK$847 million the prior week to HK$924 million this past week, up 18% YoY.  Our full month GGR forecast is HK$27.0-28.0 billion which would represent YoY growth of 11-15%.

 

Our contacts in Macau indicate that the Mass floors are still busy and no impact from the Bird Flu scare despite the media hype and more strict controls at the borders.  While Q1 GDP in China was softer than expected, housing has been better.  We are researching the following story regarding new controls on junkets limiting them to 10 or few patrons.  We are skeptical that the article has teeth but we will back with you asap if we learn anything new.

 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-04/12/content_16397866.htm

 

Looking at market share, MPEL (our favorite name in the group) and LVS are tracking well above recent trend.  We already think MPEL will beat Q1 expectations, and even more so on a hold-adjusted basis, and now Q2 is off to a great start.  We fully expect LVS to be on a northwardly trajectory all year long in terms of market share and while the April jump may be due in part to hold (particularly in week 1), the trend is encouraging.  The other operators are all tracking below recent trend.

 

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