MACAU: MARCH DETAIL

Here is our more detailed review of March Macau gaming revenues

As we wrote about this morning, Macau had an outstanding month although not quite as good as the +25% headline.  If hold is normalized across both YoY periods, growth would have been 16%. Here is the detail.

Y-O-Y TABLE OBSERVATIONS

Total table revenues grew 26%, the highest growth since Jan 2012.  Mass revenue growth remain strong at 30%, in-line with its 6-month trailing average.  VIP revenues grew 25% while Junket RC volume grew 10% in March, its best monthly performance since April 2012.

LVS

Table revenues grew 61% YoY.  Sands China led the market in terms of mass revenue, VIP revenue, and VIP RC growth.  We estimate that Sands China held at 3.15% vs 2.85% last year, adjusted for direct play of 16%.

  • Sands grew 4% YoY, snapping 4 month losing streak  
    • Mass grew 9%
    • VIP was flat, reversing 4 months of declines.  We estimate that Sands held at 3.6% compared to 3.0% in the same period last year.  We assume 10% direct play in March vs 11% in March 2012
    • Junket RC fell 17%
  • Venetian grew 23% YoY 
    • Mass increased 21%
    • VIP grew 25%
    • Junket VIP RC fell 5%, its 13th decline in the past 14 months
    • Assuming 28% direct play, hold was 3.45% compared to 2.61% in March 2012, assuming 27% direct play 
  • Four Seasons dropped 19% YoY, marking the 3rd consecutive month of declines
    • Mass revenues soared 100%, a month after falling 19%
    • VIP tumbled 32% but Junket VIP RC grew 3% as hold in March (assuming 14% direct play) was 2.16% vs 3.03% in March 2012 when direct play was 16%
  • Sands Cotai Central produced $260MM in revs March, a new record
    • Mass and VIP hit new monthly records, $77MM and $184MM, respectively 
    • Junket RC volume of $4.8BN, up 17% MoM and a new high
    • If we assume that direct play was 11%, hold would have been 3.42% 

WYNN

Wynn table revenues grew 16% in March

  • Mass was up 20%, the best growth since Jan 2012 
  • VIP grew 14% while junket RC fell 22%.  
    • Aside from a 1% gain in November, 10 of the last 11 consecutive months have been in the red
  • Assuming 11% of total VIP play was direct, we estimate that hold was 3.37% compared to 2.34% last year (assuming 10% direct play).

MPEL

MPEL table revenue grew 21%.  Hold was low at 2.73% vs 3.09% last year.

  • Altira revenues grew 1%, with a 6% decrease in Mass and a 2% increase in VIP revenue
    • VIP RC grew 16%
    •  We estimate that hold was 2.90%, compared to 3.37% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenues grew 30% YoY
    • Mass popped 43%, continuing its impressive streak of strong double-digit gains since inception
    • RC grew 36%, the biggest growth since Nov 2011
    • Assuming a 18% direct play level, hold was 2.64% in March compared to 2.93% last year (assuming 16% direct play)

SJM

Table revenue grew 28%, SJM's strongest performance since Sept 2011

  • Mass revenue eked out a 1% gain, the lowest of the 6 concessionaires for the 2nd consecutive month
  • VIP grew 41% and junket RC gained 6%
  • Hold was 3.54%, compared with 2.66% last March

GALAXY

Galaxy table revenues grew 13%.  Mass rose 39%, its slowest growth since Jan 2011, while VIP gained 7%. Across its two owned properties, Galaxy held at 3.37% vs. 3.00% in March 2012.

  • StarWorld table revenues gained 2%
    • Mass rocketed 69% higher
    • VIP fell 4%.  VIP revenues fell in 8 of the last 9 months
    • Junket RC fell 7%, marking the 10th month of consecutive declines
    • Hold was normal at 3.11% vs 2.97% last March
  • Galaxy Macau's table revenues grew 24%
    • Mass grew 31%
    • VIP grew 21%, while RC gained 1%. RC volume growth has been hovering around zero for the last 8 months
    • Hold was high in March at 3.61% vs. 3.02% last year

MGM

MGM table revenue grew 14% in March

  • Mass revenue grew 34%
  • VIP revenue grew 8%, on 38% RC growth
  • If direct play was 9%, then March hold was 2.31% compared to 3.00% last year

SEQUENTIAL MARKET SHARE

LVS

LVS’s MoM share fell 0.5% to 20.9% in March, in-line with its 6-month average and better than the 2012 average share of 19.0%.

  • Sands' share gained 70bps to 3.6%.  For comparison purposes, 2012 share was 3.9% and 6M trailing average share was 3.6%.
    • Mass share ticked up 40bps to 5.5%
    • VIP rev share rose 90bps to 2.9%
    • RC share was 2.3%, down 50 bps and a hit an all time low for the property
  • Venetian’s share fell 180bps to 7.4%.  2012 share was 7.9% and 6 month trailing share was 8.2%.
    • Mass share declined 140bps to 13.8%
    • VIP share fell 170bps to 5.0%
    • Junket RC share dropped 50bps to 3.5%, only 30bps above the properties' all time low
  • FS gained 50bps to 2.6%.  This compares to 2012 share of 3.7% and 6M trailing average share of 3.0%.
    • VIP gained 50bps to 2.8%
    • Mass share rose 70bps to 2.2%
    • Junket RC lost 40bps to 3.8%
  • Sands Cotai Central's table market share gained 10bps to 6.9%, a new high, and compares to the 6M trailing average share of 5.8%.
    • Mass share declined 0.5% to 7.4%.
    • VIP share gained 0.3% to 6.7%
    • Junket RC share gained 0.1% to 5.9%

WYNN


Wynn lost 60bps to 11.2% share in March.  Wynn’s 2012 share averaged 11.9% and their 6-month trailing share averaged 11.1%.  

  • Mass share was unchanged at 8.4%
  • VIP share of 12.1%, 1.1% lower
  • Junket RC share decreased 150bps to 10.8%, only 20bps above the Wynn's all time low

MPEL

MPEL’s gained 80bps of share to 13.6%, in-line with their 6 month trailing share of 13.7% and their 2012 share of 13.5%.  

  • Altira’s share rose 40bps to 3.7%, below its 6M trailing share of 3.9% and below its 12-month share of 3.9%
    • Mass share slipped 0.3% to 1.1%
    • VIP gained 60bps to 4.7%
    • VIP RC share rose 50bps to 5.3%
  • CoD’s share gained 40bps to 9.7%.  March’s share was a little above the property’s 2012 and 6M trailing share of 9.4% and 9.6%, respectively.
    • Mass market share was unchanged at 12.1%
    • VIP share rose 0.6% to 8.7%
    • Junket share declined 30bps to 9.3%

SJM

SJM was the biggest share gainer, rising 1.5% to 26.9% due to hold.  March's share compares to their 2012 average of 26.7% and its 6M trailing average of 26.5%.

  • Mass market share fell 2.1% to 25%, an all-time company low
  • VIP share rose 280bps to 28.6%
  • Junket RC share lost 0.4% to 27.3%

GALAXY


Galaxy's share of 18.4% was unchanged MoM, below its 2012 average share of 19.0% but above its 6-month average of 18.2%

  • Galaxy Macau share declined 0.5% to 10.3%
    • Mass share gained 20bps to 9.7%
    • VIP share decreased 0.8% to 10.5%
    • RC share gained 10bps to 9.9%
  • Starworld share gained 40bps to 7.2%
    • Mass share gained 80bps to 3.8%
    • VIP share rose 30bps to 8.6%
    • RC share rocketed 120bps higher to 9.3%

MGM

MGM was the biggest share loser, giving up 120bps of share due all to hold. Its March share of 8.9% is below their 6M average of 9.6% and above their 2012 share of 9.9%

  • Mass share exploded 210bps higher to 8.2%
  • VIP share fell 220bps to 9.0%
  • Junket RC rose 170bps to 11.9%

Slot Revenue

Slot revenue grew only 7% YoY to $147MM in March.

  • Galaxy had the best growth at 31% to $20MM
  • LVS grew of 30% to $44MM
  • MPEL grew 6% YoY to $27MM
  • WYNN fell 2% to $21MM
  • MGM dropped 11% to $21MM
  • SJM had the worst YoY slot performance, losing 20% to $15MM

MACAU: MARCH DETAIL - table2

MACAU: MARCH DETAIL - mass1

MACAU: MARCH DETAIL - rc3