Still Bullish: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

Takeaway: Embrace crisis – the real crisis appears to be in crisis-calling itself.

This note was originally published March 28, 2013 at 10:59 in Macro

POSITIONS: 14 LONGS, 7 SHORTS @Hedgeye

 

The all-time closing highs have been elusive, but that just gives Professional Top Callers (PTCs) more company. I can’t count how many people are trying to call the top at this point (and I can count).

 

The fulcrum point of our bull case on US Growth (#StrongDollar) remains not only intact, but improving by the week. This is the 7th week in the last 8 that the US Dollar Index is up wk-over-wk. And combined with both US employment and housing trends, we think that’s a pro-growth signal.

 

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE overbought = 1569
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1555
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1494

 

In other words, both the US Dollar and the US Stock Market remain in what we call Bullish Formations (bullish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL) as our immediate-term Risk Range continues to signal higher-lows and higher-highs for the SP500.

 

Don’t buy at the overbought line. Buy them when they are red. Embrace crisis – the real crisis appears to be in crisis-calling itself.

 

Have a Happy Easter Weekend,

Keith

 

 

Still Bullish: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - MyChart