This note was originally published March 28, 2013 at 10:59 in Macro
POSITIONS: 14 LONGS, 7 SHORTS @Hedgeye
The all-time closing highs have been elusive, but that just gives Professional Top Callers (PTCs) more company. I can’t count how many people are trying to call the top at this point (and I can count).
The fulcrum point of our bull case on US Growth (#StrongDollar) remains not only intact, but improving by the week. This is the 7th week in the last 8 that the US Dollar Index is up wk-over-wk. And combined with both US employment and housing trends, we think that’s a pro-growth signal.
Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:
- Immediate-term TRADE overbought = 1569
- Immediate-term TRADE support = 1555
- Intermediate-term TREND support = 1494
In other words, both the US Dollar and the US Stock Market remain in what we call Bullish Formations (bullish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL) as our immediate-term Risk Range continues to signal higher-lows and higher-highs for the SP500.
Don’t buy at the overbought line. Buy them when they are red. Embrace crisis – the real crisis appears to be in crisis-calling itself.
Have a Happy Easter Weekend,