Below you'll see a chart that shows the yield of the US Treasury since November, when Hedgeye made its growth call, and a rolling four-week average of the rate of decline of non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) jobless claims. (Note that we have inverted the 10-year yield curve to show the relationship between yields and NSA claims more clearly.)
What the chart shows is that as 10-year yields rise, the rate at which NSA claims decline also rises. In other words, improving jobless claims numbers and a rising 10-year yield are moving at similar rates and directions, which indicates overall economic growth.
