• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Takeaway: Here's a very telling chart that looks at the relationship between the yield on the 10-year Treasury and weekly jobless claims.

Below you'll see a chart that shows the yield of the US Treasury since November, when Hedgeye made its growth call, and a rolling four-week average of the rate of decline of non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) jobless claims. (Note that we have inverted the 10-year yield curve to show the relationship between yields and NSA claims more clearly.)

What the chart shows is that as 10-year yields rise, the rate at which NSA claims decline also rises. In other words, improving jobless claims numbers and a rising 10-year yield are moving at similar rates and directions, which indicates overall economic growth.

A Telling Chart - 10Y vs NSA Claims  2