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Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

* Systemic Risk vs. Local Risk. The most interesting callout in this week's risk monitor is the divergence between Euribor-OIS and EU bank swaps. Euribor-OIS was tighter week-over-week, moving from 12.70 bps to 12.20 bps. Meanwhile, bank swaps across Europe were meaningfully wider. This speaks to Cyprus not being a systemic risk to the banking system in spite of the media's best efforts at making it one, or at least the markets didn't see it that way. 

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If you’d like to discuss recent developments in Europe, from the political to financial to social, please let me know and we can set up a call.

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

 

European Financials CDS Monitor – Not surprisingly, EU bank swaps widened sharply last week. French banks were among the hardest hit with BNP wider by 26 bps, Credit Agricole wider by 35 bps and Soc Gen wider by 39 bps. German, Italian and Spanish banks followed suit.

European Banking Monitor: Cyprus Doesn’t Shake Systemic Confidence - xx. banks

Sovereign CDS – Despite the turmoil, global sovereign swaps were only modestly wider last week. Portugal was the worst performer, widening by 18 bps WoW.

European Banking Monitor: Cyprus Doesn’t Shake Systemic Confidence - xx. sover 

Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 12 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

European Banking Monitor: Cyprus Doesn’t Shake Systemic Confidence - xx. euribor

ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – In spite of the turmoil in Cyprus, ECB overnight deposits were unchanged last week. The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

European Banking Monitor: Cyprus Doesn’t Shake Systemic Confidence - xx. facility