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Takeaway: Month/Quarter end will get real interesting now. I might come right back and buy SPY at 1535-1539 again. We’ll see.

POSITION: 10 LONGS, 7 SHORTS @Hedgeye

They took a good run at the YTD closing high into yesterday’s close, then backed off – and then failed this morning on what I thought was very good US economic data (Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales/Inventory – see our Macro Team’s notes on both).

Problem is, of course, that everything eventually gets discounted. I don’t think it has been yet, but there was enough to think about here today to get out of the way (sold my SPY) while I think it through some more.

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1565 (all-time closing high)
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1539 (where we said buy this wk)
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1485

In other words, the market is still bullish TRADE and TREND, but it’s not perfect. Perfect is as perfect does, and that would have been hitting a fresh YTD high this morning on US economic data that supported it.

Month/Quarter end will get real interesting now. I might come right back and buy SPY at 1 again. We’ll see.

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Not Perfect: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX