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Takeaway: As this chart shows, as the US dollar is getting stronger, and commodities prices are falling. That's good news for the US consumer.

The strong dollar has been the fulcrum point for our bullish case. As the US dollar goes up, commodities prices go down in kind.

In the chart below, you'll that the US dollar index has had six up weeks in the last seven while the CRB Index has been down six of those seven weeks in that same time period. Lower commodities prices serve to keep the Fed on hold, and they act as a de facto tax cut for the US consumer. 

The US Dollar and Commodities - dxy.crb