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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 19, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or 0.84% downside to 1539 and 0.90% upside to 1566.      

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.71
  • VIX  closed at 13.36 1 day percent change of 18.23%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • Federal Reserve’s FOMC starts two-day meeting
  • Lagarde, Weidmann, Schaeuble speak at Frankfurt Finance Summit
  • ESM to sell as much as EU2b 182D bills
  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Feb., est. 915k (prior 890k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts M/m, Feb., est. 2.8% (prior -8.5%)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, Feb., est. 925k (prior 904k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits M/m, Feb., est. 2.3%  (prior 1.8%)
  • 8:55am: Johnson/Redbook weekly sales
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.50b notes in 2020-2023 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell 4W bills
  • 4:30pm: API Energy Inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama departs on trip to Israel, Middle East
    • VP Biden in Rome to attend installation of Pope Francis
    • Senate Armed Svcs Cmte hearing on authorization requests for FY2014, Future Years Defense Program, 9:30am
    • US Airways CEO Douglas Parker, AMR CEO Thomas Horton, Consumers Union consultant Diana Moss testify on US Airways-American Airlines merger at Senate Judiciary Cmte panel, 10am
    • House Ways and Means Cmte holds hearing on tax laws, provisions affecting state, local govts, 10am
    • House Financial Svcs Cmte hears from Fed Housing Finance Agency on GSE conservatorships, 10am
    • Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte votes on Cordray for CFPB, White for SEC, 10am
    • Treasury’s Lew in China for talks w/ President Xi Jinping
    • Senate Finance Cmte holds hearing on President Obama’s trade agenda, 10:30am
    • DOJ’s Elana Tyrangiel, Google’s Richard Salgado testify before House Judiciary hearing on Electronic Communications Privacy Act, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Blackstone said to mull outbidding Silver Lake for Dell LBO
  • Samsung preparing wristwatch as it races Apple for new market
  • Ryanair places $15.6b order for 175 Boeing 737-800 planes
  • BlackRock to cut ~300 jobs as Fink extends reorganization
  • JPMorgan Chase won’t face revived suit over silver manipulation
  • Citigroup to pay $730m in crisis bond-lawsuit settlement
  • Home construction starts in U.S. probably climbed in Feb.
  • BofA said to cut head of equities role in Australia
  • Affymax fires 75% of workforce; considers sale, bankruptcy
  • European Feb. car sales decline 10% on deepening recession
  • BMW forecasts unchanged 2013 pretax profit on Europe mkt drop
  • Boeing avoids strike threat; technical workers accept contract
  • Weight Watchers said to set rate on $2.4b bank financing
  • NPS buys back global Gattex rights from Takeda for $50m
  • Corvex asks judge to halt arbitration in CommonWealth suit
  • NFL, Providence plan to have ~$300m to invest in start-ups: WSJ

EARNINGS:

    • DSW (DSW) 7am, $0.72
    • Rentech Nitrogen Partners (RNF) 7am, $0.55
    • FactSet Research Systems (FDS) 7am, $1.24
    • Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD/B CN) 11am, $0.89
    • Francesca’s Holdings (FRAN) 4:01pm, $0.30
    • Adobe Systems (ADBE) 4:03pm, $0.31
    • Williams-Sonoma (WSM) 4:05pm, $1.29
    • Cintas (CTAS) 4:15pm, $0.62
    • Tourmaline Oil (TOU CN) 5pm, C$0.06
    • Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) Aft-mkt, $0.34
    • Element Financial (EFN CN) Aft-mkt, C$0.07

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Brent Crude Falls to Shrink Premium to WTI Before Cyprus Vote
  • Wheat Crop Seen Near Record as U.S. Drought Recedes: Commodities
  • Indonesia, Third-Biggest Cocoa Grower, Poised to Turn Net Buyer
  • Copper Swings Between Gains and Drops Before U.S. Housing Data
  • Soybeans Advance on Speculation U.S. Farmers to Withhold Crops
  • Gold Falls After Three-Day Gain as Stronger Dollar Curbs Demand
  • Robusta Coffee Falls as Vietnam Crop Concern May Be ‘Premature’
  • Rio Tinto Sees Supply Weighing on Iron Ore Prices in Second Half
  • Top Rubber Producers Must Control Output, Indonesian Group Says
  • Consumers to Pay $13 Billion Price as Ethanol Upends Refiners
  • SPDR Gold Trust Holdings Decline to Lowest Level Since July 2011
  • Billionaire Fredriksen Almost Doubles Ship Orders Amid Glut
  • Crude Inventories Climb a Ninth Week in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Thailand to Propose Extending Rubber Export Cut Another Year

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS

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ASIAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team