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JAPAN’S INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT

Takeaway: The latest confirmations of governor and deputy governors of the BOJ is structurally bearish for the yen.

This note was originally published March 15, 2013 at 16:20 in Macro

SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS:

 

  • The confirmation of Haruhiko Kuroda, Hiroshi Nakaso and Kikuo Iwata as governor and deputy governors of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)is structurally bearish for the Japanese yen. Much like consensus had become numb to high inflation and economic volatility in the US during the 1970s, consensus has become equally as numb to deflation and no growth in Japan over the past approximately 20 years. Former Fed chief Paul Volcker’s aggressive hawkishness changed the US’s circumstances in the early 80s; we expect Kuroda & Co. to attempt to do the same in Japan (only via aggressive dovishness) in the months and quarters to come.
  • All told, we remain the bears on the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the US dollar and expect further material depreciation over the intermediate-term TREND and long-term TAIL. Much like the Chavez’s Venezuela and the Weimar Republic before it, we also expect Japan’s currency-debasing Policies To Inflate to continue inflating the Japanese equity market as well.
  • And if the dollar-yen trade has indeed run its course (the dollar-yen cross is up nearly 24% since we authored this thesis on September 27 of last year) and we’re just totally wrong on the yen from here because the BOJ likely disappoints what are admittedly elevated market expectations, then there’s over -31% downside from today’s closing price to the November lows in both the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices – markets that have become stapled to ski lifts on int’l flows and policy hopium. It should be duly noted that the broad balance of Japanese high-frequency economic data and growth expectations remain squarely in the dog house.

 

ABE SCORES!

After weeks of media speculation, parliamentary deliberation and general consternation, the candidacies of Haruhiko Kuroda (Governor), Hiroshi Nakaso (Deputy Governor) and Kikuo Iwata (Deputy Governor) were approved by Japanese parliament and are poised to officially take over the BOJ on March 20. NOTE: Kuroda will have to reappear in front of the Diet again in early APR to secure “official” approval for his five-year term as a result of Shirakawa’s early exit; he’s got the highest parliamentary approval rating of all three, so we expect little-to-no hiccups there.

 

JAPAN’S “INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT”

As long as the LDP has its heart set on taking the Upper House via election in late July and “5% monetary math” (+2% inflation and +3% nominal growth) at the core of the Abe administration’s economic agenda, it would be a fool’s folly to sit here and expect that BOJ isn’t poised to “do whatever it takes” (per Draghi and, now, Kuroda) to achieve those goals – at least the latter of the two.

 

Much like consensus had become numb to high inflation and economic volatility in the US during the 1970s, consensus has become equally as numb to deflation and no growth in Japan over the past ~20 years. Paul Volcker’s aggressive hawkishness changed the US’s circumstances in the early 80s; we expect Kuroda & Co. to attempt to do the same in Japan (only via aggressive dovishness) in the months and quarters to come.

 

The following chart shows just how much of an economic phase change the Abe administration is trying to perpetuate in Japan. He’ll need – or, more importantly, he thinks he’ll need – a lot of “CTRL+P” from the BOJ to get there.

 

JAPAN’S INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT - 1

 

To the extent they do not make material progress in working towards those targets, however, we expect to see a marked acceleration of both external and self-imposed political pressure upon the holdovers on BOJ board to step up and embrace change – with the threat of a reduction in the central bank’s autonomy currently imposed by the 1998 BOJ Act always hanging in the background.

 

CONSENSUS STILL DOESN’T GET IT

In a research note on Monday, we detailed exactly why we think consensus among the buy side, the sell side and Japanese corporations is not even in the area code of being bearish enough on the Japanese yen. In that vein, this morning, former MOF official Eisuke Sakakibara (known as "Mr. Yen" during his tenure) was out making the case that the USD/JPY cross won’t breach 100 – despite the aforementioned phase change in Japanese monetary policy.

 

What people like Mr. Sakakibara are missing is that the BOJ now has the baton as it relates to being the most aggressive DM central bank. Currencies crosses are inherently relative, so as Japan accelerates its easing measures, keep in mind that the US will be doing the exact opposite – both fiscally and monetarily – as #GrowthStabilizes in the good ol’ U-S-of-A.

 

JAPAN’S INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT - 2

 

And if the dollar-yen trade has indeed run its course  and we’re just totally wrong on the yen from here because the BOJ likely disappoints what are admittedly elevated market expectations, then there’s over -31% downside from today’s closing price to the NOV lows in both the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices – markets that have become stapled to ski lifts on int’l flows and policy hopium. It should be duly noted that the broad balance of Japanese high-frequency economic data and growth expectations remain squarely in the dog house.

 

JAPAN’S INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT - 3

 

JAPAN’S INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT - 4

 

JAPAN’S INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT - 5

 

JAPAN’S INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT - 6

 

All told, we remain the bears on the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the USD and expect further material depreciation over the intermediate-term TREND and long-term TAIL. Much like the Chavez’s Venezuela and the Weimar Republic before it, we also expect Japan’s currency-debasing Policies To Inflate to continue inflating the Japanese equity market as well.

 


THE WEEK AHEAD

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 18th of March through the 22nd of March is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD - WeekAhead


JAPAN’S “INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT” IS UPON US

Takeaway: The confirmation of H. Kuroda, H. Nakaso and K. Iwata as governor and deputy governors of the BOJ is structurally bearish for the yen.

SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS:

 

  • The confirmation of Haruhiko Kuroda, Hiroshi Nakaso and Kikuo Iwata as governor and deputy governors of the BOJ is structurally bearish for the Japanese yen. Much like consensus had become numb to high inflation and economic volatility in the US during the 1970s, consensus has become equally as numb to deflation and no growth in Japan over the past ~20 years. Paul Volcker’s aggressive hawkishness changed the US’s circumstances in the early 80s; we expect Kuroda & Co. to attempt to do the same in Japan (only via aggressive dovishness) in the months and quarters to come.
  • All told, we remain the bears on the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the USD and expect further material depreciation over the intermediate-term TREND and long-term TAIL. Much like the Chavez’s Venezuela and the Weimar Republic before it, we also expect Japan’s currency-debasing Policies To Inflate to continue inflating the Japanese equity market as well.
  • And if the dollar-yen trade has indeed run its course (the USD/JPY cross is up nearly +24% since we authored the thesis back on 9/27/12) and we’re just totally wrong on the yen from here because the BOJ likely disappoints what are admittedly elevated market expectations, then there’s over -31% downside from today’s closing price to the NOV lows in both the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices – markets that have become stapled to ski lifts on int’l flows and policy hopium. It should be duly noted that the broad balance of Japanese high-frequency economic data and growth expectations remain squarely in the dog house.

 

ABE SCORES!

After weeks of media speculation, parliamentary deliberation and general consternation, the candidacies of Haruhiko Kuroda (Governor), Hiroshi Nakaso (Deputy Governor) and Kikuo Iwata (Deputy Governor) were approved by Japanese parliament and are poised to officially take over the BOJ on MAR 20. NOTE: Kuroda will have to reappear in front of the Diet again in early APR to secure “official” approval for his 5Y term as a result of Shirakawa’s early exit; he’s got the highest parliamentary approval rating of all three, so we expect little-to-no hiccups there.

 

JAPAN’S “INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT”

As long as the LDP has its heart set on taking the Upper House via election in late JUL and “5% monetary math” (+2% inflation and +3% nominal growth) at the core of the Abe administration’s economic agenda, it would be a fool’s folly to sit here and expect that BOJ isn’t poised to “do whatever it takes” (per Draghi and, now, Kuroda) to achieve those goals – at least the latter of the two.

 

Much like consensus had become numb to high inflation and economic volatility in the US during the 1970s, consensus has become equally as numb to deflation and no growth in Japan over the past ~20 years. Paul Volcker’s aggressive hawkishness changed the US’s circumstances in the early 80s; we expect Kuroda & Co. to attempt to do the same in Japan (only via aggressive dovishness) in the months and quarters to come.

 

The following chart shows just how much of an economic phase change the Abe administration is trying to perpetuate in Japan. He’ll need – or, more importantly, he thinks he’ll need – a lot of “CTRL+P” from the BOJ to get there.

 

JAPAN’S “INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT” IS UPON US - 1

 

To the extent they do not make material progress in working towards those targets, however, we expect to see a marked acceleration of both external and self-imposed political pressure upon the holdovers on BOJ board to step up and embrace change – with the threat of a reduction in the central bank’s autonomy currently imposed by the 1998 BOJ Act always hanging in the background.

 

CONSENSUS STILL DOESN’T GET IT

In a research note on Monday, we detailed exactly why we think consensus among the buy side, the sell side and Japanese corporations is not even in the area code of being bearish enough on the Japanese yen. In that vein, this morning, former MOF official Eisuke Sakakibara (known as "Mr. Yen" during his tenure) was out making the case that the USD/JPY cross won’t breach 100 – despite the aforementioned phase change in Japanese monetary policy.

 

What people like Mr. Sakakibara are missing is that the BOJ now has the baton as it relates to being the most aggressive DM central bank. Currencies crosses are inherently relative, so as Japan accelerates its easing measures, keep in mind that the US will be doing the exact opposite – both fiscally and monetarily – as #GrowthStabilizes in the good ol’ U-S-of-A.

 

JAPAN’S “INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT” IS UPON US - 2

 

And if the dollar-yen trade has indeed run its course (the USD/JPY cross is up nearly +24% since we authored the thesis back on 9/27/12) and we’re just totally wrong on the yen from here because the BOJ likely disappoints what are admittedly elevated market expectations, then there’s over -31% downside from today’s closing price to the NOV lows in both the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices – markets that have become stapled to ski lifts on int’l flows and policy hopium. It should be duly noted that the broad balance of Japanese high-frequency economic data and growth expectations remain squarely in the dog house.

 

JAPAN’S “INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT” IS UPON US - 3

 

JAPAN’S “INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT” IS UPON US - 4

 

JAPAN’S “INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT” IS UPON US - 5

 

JAPAN’S “INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT” IS UPON US - 6

 

All told, we remain the bears on the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the USD and expect further material depreciation over the intermediate-term TREND and long-term TAIL. Much like the Chavez’s Venezuela and the Weimar Republic before it, we also expect Japan’s currency-debasing Policies To Inflate to continue inflating the Japanese equity market as well.

 

Have a great weekend,

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst

 

P.S. For those of you who may be relatively new to our thesis or how our team approaches currency market risk in general, we’ve taken the liberty to outline all of our recent work on this subject below. The yen and Japanese equities are obviously hot topics; email us if you’d like to dig in further.

 

9/27: IDEA ALERT: SHORTING THE YEN AS SINO-JAPANESE TENSIONS ESCALATE

Takeaway: We're shorting the Japanese yen here as risk heightens across the Japanese economy and Japanese capital markets.

 

10/26: IDEA ALERT: RE-SHORTING THE YEN, OUR FAVORITE CURRENCY SHORT ACROSS ASIA

Takeaway: We remain bearish on the JPY relative to the USD across our TRADE, TREND and TAIL durations.

 

11/9: THINKING THROUGH A POTENTIAL CURRENCY CRISIS IN JAPAN

Takeaway: We are once again short the yen and remain bearish on the JPY in light of Japan’s deteriorating cyclical and structural GIP outlooks.

 

11/15: HEDGEYE BEST IDEAS CALL

Replay Podcast

Slides

 

12/17: BEST IDEAS UPDATE: IS THE USD/JPY CROSS GOING TO ¥100?

Takeaway: We continue to see risk that Japan experiences a currency crisis (peak-to-trough decline > 20%) over the intermediate term.

 

12/26: JAPAN TO LOOSEN FISCAL POLICY AS WELL

Takeaway: Japan’s fiscal POLICY outlook augurs bearishly for the yen over the intermediate term.

 

1/9: CONTEXT AROUND RECENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS IN JAPAN

Takeaway: Japanese policymakers continue to attack the yen, both rhetorically and with incremental POLICY maneuvers.

 

1/10: EARLY LOOK: JAPAN'S BATTLE OF DIU

Takeaway: And while we continue to view incremental monetary Policies To Inflate and expansionary fiscal POLICY as reflationary for Japanese equities and supportive of regional sentiment in the near term, we continue to flag material risk of Japanese currency and sovereign debt crises borne out of those same policies with respect to the long-term TAIL.

 

1/16: BEST IDEAS UPDATE: RE-SHORTING THE YEN HERE

Takeaway: Just managing immediate-term risk within the construct of our intermediate-to-long-term theme.

 

1/22: #QUADRILL-YEN: NOT YET, AT LEAST

Takeaway: While the BOJ disappointed short-term market expectations, we still think the outlook for Japanese monetary POLICY is decidedly dovish.

 

2/4: #QUADRILL-YEN: IS THIS WHAT TARO ASO REALLY WANTS?

Takeaway: Japanese policymakers’ gross misinterpretation of economic history portends negatively for the ailing yen.

 

2/12: CURRENCY WAR UPDATE: THE G7 BOWS TO JAPAN

Takeaway: The path towards a lower yen is once again clear with the recent mollification of int’l criticism of Japan’s “beggar thy neighbor” policies.

 

2/14: STAY SHORT THE YEN

Takeaway: Japan’s bleak cyclical data remains the perfect handoff to the structural policy changes outlined in our bearish thesis on the yen.

 

2/25: #QUADRILL-YEN: WHO IS HARUHIKO KURODA?

Takeaway: A confirmation of Haruhiko Kuroda as the next BOJ governor is explicitly bearish for the Japanese yen over the intermediate-to-long term.

 

2/27: HEDGEYE BEST IDEAS CALL

Replay Podcast

Slides

 

3/11: BEST IDEAS UPDATE: LONG CHINA; SHORT YEN

Takeaway: On balance, this weekend’s data is unsupportive of our bullish bias on Chinese equities and very supportive of our bearish bias on the yen. 


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CHART DU JOUR: Q4 EARNINGS RECAP

Regional gamers dominate the lower left quadrant

 

CHART DU JOUR: Q4 EARNINGS RECAP - CCLG



REGIONALS NOT TRADING ON FUNDAMENTALS

One would be hard pressed to find a segment of the consumer economy performing worse than regional gaming. The stocks have been a different story.

 

 

Mature regional gaming markets should post a combined gross gaming revenues (GGR) decline of close to 10% in February (still waiting on Louisiana/Mississippi to report).  This ugly performance follows a very disappointing 6% decline in January.  January was even more surprising based on our model which predicts monthly GGR based on sequential trends adjusted for seasonality and other factors such as the calendar, weather, and one-time events.  As can be seen in the following chart, January should’ve been close to flat YoY.

 

REGIONALS NOT TRADING ON FUNDAMENTALS - R1

 

It’s not like the companies can make up for it in margin; costs have already been cut to the bone and the casinos are highly fixed cost businesses.  Combine the operating leverage with very high financial leverage and the stocks should be getting creamed in a declining demand environment, right?  The chart below tells a different story.  Regional gaming stocks have outperformed the market since mid-November.  So what gives?

 

REGIONALS NOT TRADING ON FUNDAMENTALS - R2

 

For the most part, it comes down to corporate finance:

  • PENN announced a conversion to a REIT on 11/16/13.  Through the real estate lens, all regional stocks suddenly looked cheap.
  • PNK announced the agreement to acquire ASCA which boosted both stocks.  Nothing like M&A to get investors excited.
  • BYD reached an agreement to sell the Echelon project to Genting and Jai Lai Dania, allowing the company to de-lever by jettisoning non-EBITDA producing assets.  The transactions lowered the stock’s valuation considerably.

The question is what happens now.  We think the rest of 2013 will mark the return of focus on fundamentals.  This will not be good for the stocks.  Our EBITDA estimates for Q1 and 2013 fall below the Street for each regional company with the surprising exception of BYD.  We’re in-line with BYD probably because everyone hates the company and it was the most recent to announce earnings. 

  • PNK/ASCA – PNK looks the most vulnerable because they are doubling down on regional gaming with added leverage.  The upside of the deal – huge cash flow and EPS accretion – has already been recognized in the stock.  ASCA’s properties were among the best run in the industry so operating upside is limited.  We think investors may be disappointed with corporate cost reductions since ASCA allocated a significant amount of property-related costs to corporate which contributed to industry leading property margins but also industry leading corporate costs as a percent of revenues.  PNK’s valuation of 7.6x next year’s EV/EBITDA doesn’t leave a lot of room for upside.  Investors may be increasingly uncomfortable with post deal leverage of 6.6x in this type of environment.
  • PENN – At this point, we think the stock is fairly valued considering numbers still need to come down and analysts seem to be giving an aggressive multiple of 6-7x EBITDA for OpCo.  Offsetting those two factors is a fairly low cap rate ascribed to the REIT.  We think that the value of the REIT will rise as real estate investors become comfortable with the concept of a gaming REIT.  We’ll stay on the sidelines until the Street reduces estimates. 
  • BYD – With the sale of Dania and the Echelon project factored in, BYD’s EV/EBITDA multiple next year declines to an industry low of 6x.  More importantly, we think the Street actually has the numbers right for Q1 and 2013.  There is no stock in our universe with worse investor sentiment (not even CCL) than BYD.  Sell side ratings are almost universally Holds and Sells.  Assuming we’re right on the numbers, a simple half turn in the multiple represents a 50% move in the stock price.  Just meeting expectations should get BYD there.

Markets From A Different Angle

Takeaway: Here are highlights of a call we hosted with TF Market Advisors' Peter Tchir, an expert on global credit markets.

The Hedgeye Macro team Friday hosted a conference call with Peter Tchir (@TFMkts), founder of TF Market Advisors, an independent provider of macro research and market information.  Peter’s expertise in global credit markets has made him a valued advisor to hedge funds, money managers and asset allocation firms. Peter looks at global markets from a Macro perspective, watching trends in fixed income as they signal upcoming events in other markets, including currencies and equities.

 

In the near term, Peter sees more risk than upside in the US equities market.

 

He believes the emerging awareness of risks from Europe, combined with a bottomless well of QE will soon have investors seeing stock valuations as overextended.  There are high hopes for an LBO boom, which he believes will not materialize, and risk contagion will also spread from weakness in emerging economies, all of which should leave the S&P vulnerable for a pullback to the 1,500 level.

 

Peter believes Spain and Italy will ultimately become buying opportunities for investors who trade global ETFs.  But not until there is a perception that the ECB has the ability to make something happen in recalcitrant economies.

At some point, the Fed will end its QE program. They will not signal it ahead of time, but it will be important to recognize when it does occur. 

 

Among other effects, Peter believes investors will reassess the position of the banks, which he says will do much better under Dodd Frank than most people predict.  Meanwhile the US market, which he sees as mildly overvalued, should retrench, giving patient buyers an opportunity to bargain hunt. 

 

Peter sees a number of major market segments where investor perception is at odds with reality.  “When perception catches up with reality,” he says, “those are always the most interesting moves.”

 

Follow the Money: US Equity Markets and the Fed

Peter says, don’t listen to what the Fed says – look at what the Fed owns. 

 

Bernanke says the Fed will not sell bonds.  Peter says the Fed can’t sell bonds.  They have such a massive position that, should they sell a bond, the market will rush to place enormous pressure on Treasurys. 

 

The Fed owns 40% of all Treasury bonds with maturities in the 5-20 year range, and nearly as much in the 20-30 year.  The Fed no longer participates in this market.  They have become the market.  As we are hearing in this morning’s JP MorganChase senate testimony, when you get too big in a market, you become its prisoner.  Fed Chairman Bernanke is “The Washington Whale.”

 

The Fed wants to maintain momentum in housing.  Since mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury, this is all the more reason why, says Peter, the Fed not only won’t sell bonds – they can’t sell.

 

This continues to create a bind in the economy.  The Fed is both buying mortgages, and controlling rates, squeezing others out of the mortgage market.  meanwhile, banks continue buying far more Treasurys than mortgages, meaning they are financing the government instead of the economy.  

 

JPMorgan recently laid off a large number of employees in its mortgage unit – a sign of widespread concern that a true private market for mortgages may never reappear.  Peter says we need to return to the normal scenario of Banks lending money to People and to Businesses.  There will almost certainly be a volatility hiccup on the way, but once the Fed finally steps back from its Quantitative Easing (QE) program, the economy will emerge much stronger.

 

How does this work its way into the stock market?

 

The Fed’s recent stress test scenarios all assumed 10 year rates at around 2%, but they were able to achieve a projected result, in at least one case, of stock prices doubling, coupled with 4% GDP growth.  On the way to a double, stock first declined substantially, but the Fed looks at the positive part of the analysis.  This means the Fed believes they can remain in the driver’s seat for a long time, though it is still not clear what policy measures they foresee in the event their rosy scenario comes true.  After all, even the greatest bull market only lasts until it doesn’t. QE has taken the bounce out of the economy. 

 

Recent gains in employment are not resonating through the equities markets the way they normally would, housing prices are rising, retail activity is picking up, but Peter’s work indicates none of those factors will have the strength they normally would to take equity prices higher.  You can’t fight the Fed, as they say.

 

What About All Those Equity Deals?

There have been a couple of substantial equity deals lately.  Two prominent deals – Dell and Heinz – have investors salivating over a new wave of buyout activity.  Peter cautions that these transactions had unique owners and participants, and that in both cases the owners sought large pieces of secured debt – not your normal private equity of investment bank-led equity deal.  Peter says it is unclear whether there is enough unrealized value for a real LBO wave to take off.  And he points out that credit is not yet exuberant enough to provide the levels of leverage needed for a consistent flow of transactions.

 

Another theme that has equity investors living in hope is the Great Rotation, the notion that investors will dump their bonds and buy stocks.  Peter says this correlation has broken down, largely thanks to the Fed’s relentless buying of $85 billion worth of bonds and mortgages every month.

 

Europe and the ECB

Italy and Spain remain key risks in Europe.  While they are no longer cited as major concerns by most commentators, Peter says the risks have definitely not gone away, noting that yields in both countries’ sovereign debt rose in the past week.  Italy’s election has not been resolved – the front runners are Beppe Grillo, a former clown who may be prevented from assuming office because of a 1980 manslaughter conviction; and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, recently sentenced to one year in jail over a wiretap scandal.

 

Italy’s political disarray is ominous, Peter says, because their economy is big enough to go it alone.  Italy’s continued refusal to cooperate in the ECB’s credit program puts significant pressure on the rest of the ECB system.

 

Spain, while not so colorful, continues to have its share of economic woes, similarly compounded by an ongoing corruption investigation of its own Premier Rajoy.

 

France, largely viewed as part of the core of the “good Europe,” may be showing signs of a new brewing crisis as analysts dig deeper.

 

To manage all this, the ECB instituted the Outright Monetary Transaction program (OMT), where the ECB will buy bonds of countries that enter into a program under conditions established and negotiated by the IMF.  Says Peter, the ECB is not the Fed – it can make recommendations, but without a European central fiscal authority, the OMT relies on the voluntary cooperation of member states. 

 

It also relies on the continued willingness of strong members – particularly Germany – to backstop weaker members’ bond issuance, a willingness that is dwindling by the hour.

 

Italy and Spain have rejected the IMF conditions, possibly because they are holding out for a better deal, and possibly because they believe the pain of going it alone would not be worse than the pain of submitting to the OMT requirements.  If either country gets in fiscal trouble, there is no mechanism to stop the bleeding.  And with no government in place, Italy doesn’t have anyone to negotiate with the IMF, much less the ability to reach a consensus to reach out to the OMT.  Peter says the risks posed by Italy are not priced into the European credit markets, creating the possibility of a severe bump in an already rocky road.

 

 

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
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