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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 15, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or 1.10% downside to 1546 and 0.37% upside to 1569. 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.77 from 1.77
  • VIX  closed at 11.30 1 day percent change of -4.48%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, March, est. 10.00 (prior 10.04)
  • 8:30am: Consumer Price Index M/m, Feb., est. 0.5% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: CPI Ex Food & Energy M/m, Feb., est. 0.2%
  • 8:30am: CPI Y/y, Feb., est. 1.9% (prior 1.6%)
  • 8:30am: CPI Ex Food & Energy Y/y, Feb., est. 2.0% (prior 1.9%)
  • 8:30am: CPI Core Index SA, Feb.,, est. 232.482 (prior 232.108)
  • 8:30am: CPI NSA, Feb., est. 232.102 (prior 230.280)
  • 9am: Total Net TIC Flows, Jan. (prior $25.2b)
  • 9am: Net Long-Term TIC Flows, est. $37.5b (prior $64.2b)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, Feb., est. 0.4% (prior -0.1%)
  • 9:15am:Capacity Utilization, Feb., est. 79.4% (prior 79.1%)
  • 9:15am:Manufacturing Production, Feb., est. 0.5% (prior -0.4%)
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Fisher speaks on banking in National Harbor, Md.
  • 9:55am: U of Mich., March prelim., est. 78 (prior 77.6)
  • 11:00am: Fed to buy $4.75b-$5.75b notes in 2017-2018 sector
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • 9:45am: Sen. Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs panel hears from former JPMorgan CIO Ina Drew, Comptroller of Currency Thomas Curry on JPMorgan whale trades
    • 1pm: Rep. Mike Thompson, D-Calif., chair of Congressional Gun Violence Prevention Task Force, holds hearing on need for background checks.

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Fed rejects Ally, BB&T capital plans; GS, JPM conditional OK
  • Banks disclose capital plans for divs, buyback
  • JPMorgan hid trades banned by Volcker, Senate probe finds
  • Former JPM CIO Ina Drew testifies today
  • Citigroup, others report monthly charge-offs, delinquencies
  • Obama presses China President Xi on computer attacks
  • Amgen, Novartis said to show interest in Hikma unit
  • Molycorp loss wider than est. amid rare-earth mine delays
  • BYD said to plan sale of up to 20% of Hong Kong stock
  • China bad bank said to plan $3b IPO in Hong Kong
  • CNPC to buy stake in Eni Mozambique assets for $4.2b
  • FOMC, Obama in Israel, U.K. Budget, HP: Wk Ahead March 16-23

EARNINGS:

    • Hibbett Sports (HIBB) 7am, $0.71
    • Carnival (CCL) 9:15am, $0.03

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Top Robusta Grower Vietnam Seen Poised for Lowest Crop Since ‘06
  • Copper Bulls Retreat on Signs Chinese Demand Weaker: Commodities
  • WTI Crude Heads for Weekly Gain to Narrow Discount Versus Brent
  • Industrial Metals Head for Second Weekly Advance on U.S. Rebound
  • Gold Set for Weekly Gain Amid Signs of Physical Demand, Recovery
  • Soybeans Advance for First Time in Four Days as U.S. Sales Gain
  • Japan Aluminum Buyers to Pay Near-Record Fee on Recovery
  • Arabica Coffee Seen Extending Slump on Ample Brazilian Supplies
  • Silver Heads for $40 on China Solar-Power Push: Chart of the Day
  • Patriot Coal Asks Court to Modify Wages, Benefits
  • SHFE Copper, Aluminum Stockpiles Advance to Highest in a Decade
  • Japan May Open Beef in TPP Trade Talks, Former Adviser Says
  • Worst New Zealand Drought in 30 Years Weighs on Economic Growth
  • Oil May Fall as Rising Output Boosts Inventories, Survey Shows

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS

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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team