I don't wake up every morning to wash the laundry. I wake up to make calls. I'll be right, and I'll be wrong. This is my job as a risk manager.
This call I have been making on US Employment Turning (see 4/3/09 note - "This Is BIG: US Employment Is Turning")... has been one of the top 3 calls that I have been getting pushback on (albeit now at a lesser rate). Given that the facts have forced the Bears to agree with me on this, that is probably no surprise. Facts are stubborn little critters to deal with. This we all know.
While the Depressionistas will quickly point out that this week's jobless # was higher than last week's, I will be the first to agree with that fact. But will they, in turn, agree with that this morning's claims report was:
1. A lower high versus the peak we saw 5 weeks ago (see chart)
2. Below the 4-week moving average
3. Better than what you'd expect to see in a Great Depression
I have claimed the conch on this debate and would like to know where the squeezed Bears wash out on this. What's the bear case from here?
I'm not trying to be bullish - I'm just trying to be right.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer