TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 7, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or 1.46% downside to 1519 and 0.62% upside to 1551.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.69
- VIX closed at 13.53 1 day percent change of 0.37%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: BoE interest rates, monetary policy cmte decision
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, Feb. (prior -24.4%)
- 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, March (prior 49.5)
- 7:45am: ECB announces interest rates
- 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi holds news conference
- 8:30am: Trade Balance, Jan., est. -$42.6b (prior -$38.5b)
- 8:30am: Non-farm Productivity, 4Q F, est. -1.6% (prior -2.0%)
- 8:30am: Unit Labor Costs, 4Q F, est. 4.3% (prior 4.5%)
- 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, March 2, est. 355k (prior 344k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, March 3 (prior -32.8)
- 10am: Fed’s Powell testifies to Congress on Bank Secrecy Act
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
- 11am: Fed to buy $3.00b-$3.75b notes in 2018-2020 sector
- 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 4Q (prior $1.722t)
- 3pm: Consumer Credit, Jan., est. $14.7 (prior $14.595b)
- 4:30pm: Fed releases bank stress test results
GOVERNMENT:
- 9am: Energy Dept meeting of Natl Coal Council
- 9am: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on access to China’s financial system
- 10am: REI CEO Sally Jewell’s confirmation hearing to be Interior secretary before Sen. Energy and Natural Resources Cmte
- 10am: Sen. Judiciary Cmte considers gun-control legislation including an assault-weapon ban
- 10am: Sen. Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Cmte hearing on safety in schools
- 10am: Sen. Banking Cmte hearing on Bank Secrecy Act
- 11am: National Transportation Safety Board opens public docket for Japan Airlines Boeing 787 lithium-ion battery fire probe
- 1:55pm: Obama signs Violence Against Women Act into law
WHAT TO WATCH
- Fed to release preliminary results of bank stress tests
- ECB, BOE to keep their benchmark interest rates unchanged
- BOJ rejects earlier asset purchases as Shirakawa exits
- Trade gap in U.S. probably widened on costlier energy imports
- Feb. retail sales hurt by tax concerns, cold weather
- Banks said to weigh disregarding Fed with payout-plan disclosure
- SEC to consider technology standards to avoid automated trading meltdowns
- Time Warner will split from magazine unit in 3rd major spinoff
- Apache said to weigh sale of deep-water assets in Gulf of Mexico
- Artisan Partners raises $332m pricing IPO above range
- NGP said to solicit buyers for pipeline operator Teak Midstream
- MGIC raises $1.1b as investors bet on mortgage insurance
- Facebook names UCSF Chancellor Desmond-Hellmann to board
- Keystone pipeline decision may influence oil-sands development
EARNINGS:
- Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6am, $0.50
- EPL Oil & Gas (EPL) 6am, $0.50
- Navistar International (NAV) 6am, $(1.76) - Preview
- Nationstar Mortgage (NSM) 6:30am, $0.69
- Ciena (CIEN) 7am, $(0.14)
- John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8am, $0.83
- Baytex Energy (BTE CN) 8am, C$0.34
- Canadian Western Bank (CWB CN) 8am, C$0.60
- Kroger (KR) 8:15am, $0.70 - Preview
- Cooper Cos. (COO) 4pm, $1.19
- Quiksilver (ZQK) 4pm, $(0.07)
- Finisar (FNSR) 4pm, $0.16
- H&R Block (HRB) 4:02pm, $(0.03)
- Pandora Media (P) 4:02pm, $(0.05)
- Westport Innovations (WPRT) 4:05pm, $(0.44)
- Main Street Capital (MAIN) 4:05pm, $0.50
- Workday (WDAY) 4:05pm, $(0.21)
- Paramount Resources (POU CN) After-mkt, C$(0.30)
- Boise Cascade (BCC) N/A, N/A
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- BHP Billiton Rebuffs China Claims of Iron-Ore Price Manipulation
- Oil Crop for McDonald’s Fries Rising Most Since ’08: Commodities
- WTI Crude Trades Near Lowest in 10 Weeks; Brent Pipeline Resumes
- Copper Rises as Portuguese Upgrade Eases Euro-Crisis Concern
- Putin Pipeline to Send 25% of Russia’s Oil East: Energy Markets
- Corn Advances on Speculation U.S. Will Lower Supply Estimate
- Paulson Gold Fund Plunges 18% as Metal’s Decline Foils Rebound
- Sugar Climbs for Fourth Day on Port Congestion; Coffee Advances
- Rebar Falls to Near Two-Month Low Amid Rising Inventory in China
- Lumber Futures Double Top Signals Price Chop: Technical Analysis
- World Wheat Output May Rise 4.3% on Europe, Russia, UN FAO Says
- Maersk Sees Tanker Slump Persisting Amid Biggest Glut Since 1996
- Sumitomo Sees Aluminum Surplus at Highest Level in Two Years
- Gold Swings Between Gains and Losses as Investors Weigh Outlook
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team