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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 7, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or 1.46% downside to 1519 and 0.62% upside to 1551.      

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.69
  • VIX  closed at 13.53 1 day percent change of 0.37%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: BoE interest rates, monetary policy cmte decision
  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, Feb. (prior -24.4%)
  • 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, March (prior 49.5)
  • 7:45am: ECB announces interest rates
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi holds news conference
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Jan., est. -$42.6b (prior -$38.5b)
  • 8:30am: Non-farm Productivity, 4Q F, est. -1.6% (prior -2.0%)
  • 8:30am: Unit Labor Costs, 4Q F, est. 4.3% (prior 4.5%)
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, March 2, est. 355k (prior 344k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, March 3 (prior -32.8)
  • 10am: Fed’s Powell testifies to Congress on Bank Secrecy Act
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: Fed to buy $3.00b-$3.75b notes in 2018-2020 sector
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 4Q (prior $1.722t)
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, Jan., est. $14.7 (prior $14.595b)
  • 4:30pm: Fed releases bank stress test results

GOVERNMENT:

    • 9am: Energy Dept meeting of Natl Coal Council
    • 9am: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on access to China’s financial system
    • 10am: REI CEO Sally Jewell’s confirmation hearing to be Interior secretary before Sen. Energy and Natural Resources Cmte
    • 10am: Sen. Judiciary Cmte considers gun-control legislation including an assault-weapon ban
    • 10am: Sen. Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Cmte hearing on safety in schools
    • 10am: Sen. Banking Cmte hearing on Bank Secrecy Act
    • 11am: National Transportation Safety Board opens public docket for Japan Airlines Boeing 787 lithium-ion battery fire probe
    • 1:55pm: Obama signs Violence Against Women Act into law

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Fed to release preliminary results of bank stress tests
  • ECB, BOE to keep their benchmark interest rates unchanged
  • BOJ rejects earlier asset purchases as Shirakawa exits
  • Trade gap in U.S. probably widened on costlier energy imports
  • Feb. retail sales hurt by tax concerns, cold weather
  • Banks said to weigh disregarding Fed with payout-plan disclosure
  • SEC to consider technology standards to avoid automated trading meltdowns
  • Time Warner will split from magazine unit in 3rd major spinoff
  • Apache said to weigh sale of deep-water assets in Gulf of Mexico
  • Artisan Partners raises $332m pricing IPO above range
  • NGP said to solicit buyers for pipeline operator Teak Midstream
  • MGIC raises $1.1b as investors bet on mortgage insurance
  • Facebook names UCSF Chancellor Desmond-Hellmann to board
  • Keystone pipeline decision may influence oil-sands development

EARNINGS:

    • Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6am, $0.50
    • EPL Oil & Gas (EPL) 6am, $0.50
    • Navistar International (NAV) 6am, $(1.76) - Preview
    • Nationstar Mortgage (NSM) 6:30am, $0.69
    • Ciena (CIEN) 7am, $(0.14)
    • John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8am, $0.83
    • Baytex Energy (BTE CN) 8am, C$0.34
    • Canadian Western Bank (CWB CN) 8am, C$0.60
    • Kroger (KR) 8:15am, $0.70 - Preview
    • Cooper Cos. (COO) 4pm, $1.19
    • Quiksilver (ZQK) 4pm, $(0.07)
    • Finisar (FNSR) 4pm, $0.16
    • H&R Block (HRB) 4:02pm, $(0.03)
    • Pandora Media (P) 4:02pm, $(0.05)
    • Westport Innovations (WPRT) 4:05pm, $(0.44)
    • Main Street Capital (MAIN) 4:05pm, $0.50
    • Workday (WDAY) 4:05pm, $(0.21)
    • Paramount Resources (POU CN) After-mkt, C$(0.30)
    • Boise Cascade (BCC) N/A, N/A

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • BHP Billiton Rebuffs China Claims of Iron-Ore Price Manipulation
  • Oil Crop for McDonald’s Fries Rising Most Since ’08: Commodities
  • WTI Crude Trades Near Lowest in 10 Weeks; Brent Pipeline Resumes
  • Copper Rises as Portuguese Upgrade Eases Euro-Crisis Concern
  • Putin Pipeline to Send 25% of Russia’s Oil East: Energy Markets
  • Corn Advances on Speculation U.S. Will Lower Supply Estimate
  • Paulson Gold Fund Plunges 18% as Metal’s Decline Foils Rebound
  • Sugar Climbs for Fourth Day on Port Congestion; Coffee Advances
  • Rebar Falls to Near Two-Month Low Amid Rising Inventory in China
  • Lumber Futures Double Top Signals Price Chop: Technical Analysis
  • World Wheat Output May Rise 4.3% on Europe, Russia, UN FAO Says
  • Maersk Sees Tanker Slump Persisting Amid Biggest Glut Since 1996
  • Sumitomo Sees Aluminum Surplus at Highest Level in Two Years
  • Gold Swings Between Gains and Losses as Investors Weigh Outlook

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS

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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team