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MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET?

Takeaway: Neither Italy nor sequestration seem to be having much impact on U.S. Financials. Systemic interbank risk measures remains low for now.

Key Takeaways:

 

* European Financial CDS - Italian banks are wider on the political uncertainty with increases ranging from +19 to +34 bps. On a MoM basis, Italian banks are up 31 to 52 bps. Spanish banks are not far behind. Interestingly, while sovereign swaps in Germany and France were little changed, German and French bank swaps were notably wider WoW. Swaps widened by a median of 8 bps WoW among EU Financials, while equities were down by 3%. The MoM change in EU Financials is up to +13 bps. 

 

* Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bps to 14 bps. While individual swaps are rising, the sentiment around systemic risk remains low, as evidenced by the very modest uptick in the Euribor-OIS spread.

 

* ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – Likewise, ECB Liquity Deposits fell by 13 billion euros last week. 

 

* U.S. Financial CDS -  Mortgage insurers MGIC and Radian continued to tighten, improving 319 and 135 bps, respectively WoW, signaling that sentiment around the ongoing housing recovery is intact. The global U.S. banks were modestly wider WoW on rising concerns around Italy. 

 

* 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread tightened to 164 bps, 12 bps tighter than a week ago. 

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary

 • Short-term(WoW): Negative / 3 of 12 improved / 6 out of 12 worsened / 4 of 12 unchanged

 • Intermediate-term(WoW): Positive / 6 of 12 improved / 3 out of 12 worsened / 4 of 12 unchanged

 • Long-term(WoW): Positive / 9 of 12 improved / 1 out of 12 worsened / 3 of 12 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 15 rm

 

1. U.S. Financial CDS -  Mortgage insurers MGIC and Radian continued to tighten, improving 319 and 135 bps, respectively WoW, signaling that sentiment around the ongoing housing recovery is intact. The global U.S. banks were modestly wider WoW on rising concerns around Italy. 


Tightened the most WoW: MTG, RDN, AGO

Widened the most WoW: MBI, MS, JPM

Tightened the most WoW: RDN, MTG, MET

Widened the most MoM: AON, MMC, BAC

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 1 rm

 

2. European Financial CDS - Swaps widened by a median of 8 bps WoW among EU Financials, while equities were down by 3%. The MoM change in EU Financials is up to +13 bps. Italian banks were wider on the political uncertainty with increases ranging from +19 to +34 bps. On a MoM basis, Italian banks are up 31 to 52 bps. Spanish banks are not far behind. Interestingly, while sovereign swaps in Germany and France were little changed, bank swaps among German and French banks were notably wider WoW.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 2 rm

 

3. Asian Financial CDS - India widened while China tightened. Japan was mixed. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 17 rm

 

4. Sovereign CDS – Italian sovereign swaps widened sharply last week on Italian political uncertainty. Italy's swaps widened 36 bps WoW to 286 bps. Spain and Portugal were narrowly wider by 11 bps on sympathy. The rest of the world, however, moved little, with the U.S., Germany, France, Ireland and Japan all flat or narrowly tighter.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 18 rm

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 3 rm

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 4 rm

 

5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell 10.5 bps last week, ending the week at 5.98% versus 6.08% the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 5 rm

 

6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 0.6 points last week, ending at 1771.9.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 6 rm

 

7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread rose 1.6 basis points last week, ending the week at 18 bps versus last week’s print of 16.4 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 7 rm

 

8. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – The JOC index fell 0.8 points, ending the week at 9.08 versus 9.9 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 8 rm

 

9. Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bps to 14 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 9 rm

 

10. ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – Deposits fell by 13 billion euros last week. The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 10 rm

 

11. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – Last week spreads widened by 1 bp, ending the week at 93 bps versus 92 bps the prior week. The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 16-V1. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 11 rm

 

12. Chinese Steel – Steel prices in China fell 2.0% last week, or 76 yuan/ton, to 3790 yuan/ton. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity, and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 12 rm

 

13. 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread tightened to 164 bps, 12 bps tighter than a week ago. We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 13 rm

 

14. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 1.9% upside to TRADE resistance and 1.5% downside to TRADE support.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: ARE ITALY'S WOES HITTING U.S. FINANCIALS YET? - 14 rm

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA



THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 4, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or 1.07% downside to 1502 and 1.04% upside to 1534.            

                                                                                                                   

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.62 from 1.61
  • VIX  closed at 15.36 1 day percent change of -0.97%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8am: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, Feb. (prior 56.7)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 2036-2043 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $35b 3-mo. bills, $30b 6-mo. bills
  • 11:45am: Former Fed Chairman Volcker speaks in Washington
  • 1:15pm: Fed’s Powell speaks in Washington
  • U.S. Rates Weekly Agenda

GOVERNMENT:

    • This week, agencies implement automatic budget cuts, House may take up continuing resolution to keep govt funded
    • IAEA board convenes in Vienna to discuss Iran
    • Institute of International Bankers conference; speakers include Under Sec. of Treasury Mary J. Miller, Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, Comptroller of the Currency Thomas Curry, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg
    • Washington Week Ahead 

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Obama calls lawmakers to seek ways to recast budget cuts
  • Euro leaders demand austerity; Italy moves closer to vote
  • Las Vegas Sands says it probably violated FCPA
  • Buffett plans acceleration of Berkshire capital spending
  • Buffett plans to boost stake in IBM; says yr was subpar
  • Transocean board seeks $2.24/shr div; Icahn wanted >$4
  • Kuroda pledges bolder action as BoJ governor
  • Samsung to seek further review as Apple damages cut ~45%
  • Genting to buy unfinished Las Vegas Echelon resort from Boyd
  • China monetary tightening pressure eases as rebound slows
  • ‘Giant Slayer’ is wknd’s top film w/ $28m in NA sales
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Media/Ent, Real Estate, Transports
  • North American M&A Agenda
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • U.S. Jobs, ECB Rate Meeting, Kenya Votes: Wk Ahead March 4-9

EARNINGS:

    • Yingli Green Energy (YGE) Pre-mkt, $(0.57)
    • Tech Data (TECD) 6am, $1.76
    • Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) 7am, $(0.05)
    • Stratasys Ltd (SSYS) 7am, $0.38
    • Vermilion Energy (VET CN) 7am, C$0.53
    • Shuffle Entertainment (SHFL) 4pm, $0.12
    • Cninsure (CISG) 4pm, NA
    • Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) 4:02pm, $0.23
    • Santarus (SNTS) 4:05pm, $0.01
    • ABM Industries (ABM) 5pm, $0.22

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Oil Futures Decline for Third Day to Trade Near $90 a Barrel
  • Investors Least Bullish in Four Years Pulling Funds: Commodities
  • Gold Swings as Investors Weigh Economic Stimulus Against Dollar
  • Cocoa Falls to 10-Month Low on Ivory Coast Rainfall; Sugar Rises
  • Palm Oil Climbs as Worst Losing Streak Since 2006 Spurs Demand
  • Indonesian Palm Reserves Seen Declining by Bangun on Demand
  • Lead and Zinc Decline as China Property Curbs Could Damp Demand
  • Vietnam 2013 Rice Exports Reach 744,408 Tons as of Feb. 28: VFA
  • Angola to Start Cargo Rail Line From Luanda Port This Month
  • Keystone Report Spurs Opponents to Vow Stiffer Fight on Pipeline
  • Marathon Said to Join Oil CEO Search as Bid War Looms: Energy
  • U.S. Soybean Reserve Seen Lower in Survey; Grain Supply May Rise
  • Joblessness Down as Bernanke View of Cyclical U.S. Weakness Wins
  • Rubber Drops to Two-Month Low as China to Cool Property Prices

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 


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Company Commodity Commentary

In light of the recent earnings results from the restaurant space, we thought it would be useful to take stock of the commentary on commodity price trends from some of the management teams that, to-date, have reported 4QCY12 results.

 

DNKN: Franchisees seeing the benefit of lower coffee costs but higher wheat costs persist and could stick around for 2013.

 

CMG: Company is optimistic that food inflation will be relatively modest over next few quarters.  Made no decision on pricing as of 2/5, but said that inflation during the year up to that date made it likely that price would be taken in 2013. Beef and dairy prices were headwinds in the latter months of 2012.  Food costs increased faster than expected in the fourth quarter but leveled off in December.

 

PNRA: Management said on 2/6 that wheat is locked 90% a year in advance.  The company is expecting 2-3% inflation.  We believe that, on the pricing side of things, achieving significant mix growth (implied in guidance) will be a stretch versus last year’s comparisons.

 

BWLD: The company is hoping that moderating wing prices will allow it to keep menu price increases to a minimum. 

 

BKW:  Commodity inflation is not a crucial issue for this heavily-franchised business model, but the company is expecting 3% inflation in food and paper driven primarily by beef.  There were some concerns that elevated beef prices may pressure franchisee profitability, coming alongside some significant capital investment from the franchisee community.  The horsemeat scandal has brought beef prices down but, to the extent that the scandal hurts demand in the US, that would be negative for BKW. 

 

BLMN: Bloomin’s management team is expecting FY13 beef inflation in the range of 10-12%, which should be offset, in part, by favorable pricing on seafood.  The company is contracted for 72% of its buy for 2013, as of 2/22.

 

TXRH:  Management is expecting beef costs to be up by 15% this year but has 80% of its needs locked in.  On the earnings call, continuing tight cattle supplies and the high percentage of corn being used in ethanol production were highlighted as continuing tailwinds for beef prices.

 

JACK: Management is expecting beef and corn to be up roughly 4% for the year, with chicken up 6%.  The company’s overall basket is expected to be up 2-3% for the fiscal year.   Beef and corn, according to the company, have the potential to be most volatile. 

 

PZZA: Management is expecting overall commodity costs to be up in 2013, with cheese prices expected to increase throughout the year.  Corporate locations tend to hedge on cheese while franchisees tend to be less conservative.

 

WEN: Management is expecting an increase in the cost of its commodity basket in the range of 3-4% with beef (20% of spend) and chicken (20% of spend) driving the increase.

 

 

Company Commodity Commentary - commod table

 

Company Commodity Commentary - correl

 

Company Commodity Commentary - crb foodstuff

 

Company Commodity Commentary - corn

 

Company Commodity Commentary - wheat

 

Company Commodity Commentary - soybeans

 

Company Commodity Commentary - rough rice

 

Company Commodity Commentary - live cattle

 

Company Commodity Commentary - chicken whole breast

 

Company Commodity Commentary - chicken wings

 

Company Commodity Commentary - coffe

 

Company Commodity Commentary - mil

 

Company Commodity Commentary - cheese

 

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Senior Analyst

 



Commodity Gap

“Icy with anger, warm with satisfaction, sharp with concern”

-Emmet Hughes

 

Allegedly, that’s how President Eisenhower reacted to Russian intelligence briefings in July of 1956. While he didn’t sign off on the depth of the American U2 spy plane mission to begin with, “the President’s skepticism (about Russia) had been confirmed by just five days of aerial reconnaissance. The Bomber Gap was a myth.” (Ike’s Bluff, pg 215) The Russians didn’t have anything real.

 

Like the “missile gap” concerns that came thereafter, the Bomber Gap was part of the political fear-mongering that kept the American People on edge, building home bunkers, and buying canned foods – essentially preparing to be attacked. But freaking people out with a false story that’s based on logical premise isn’t new in this country. That’s how the #PoliticalClass gets paid.

 

Ultimately, knowing the truth (but keeping it to himself) became Dwight Eisenhower’s advantage in a world that was perpetually on the brink of war. When I see the emerging advantages of sequestration (Strong Dollar born out of fiscal spending sobriety), but hear politicians trying to scare people (when they should just get out of the way), I think about leadership. I also think about Ike.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Does President Obama get what a Strong Dollar does for the US Economy? Did George Bush? Nixon and Carter didn’t. Reagan and Clinton did. A pervasively Strong Dollar gave the US Down Oil prices in the two most impressive growth decades since Eisenhower.

 

Last week, the US Dollar Index was up another full +1%. That was the 4th consecutive up week for the US Dollar. At the same time (and not ironically), Commodities (19 component CRB Index) were down for the 4th straight week. Commodity Deflation has been absolute (CRB Index -4.9% in 4 weeks), and now prices are finally scaring expectations.

 

To expect or not to expect Commodity Inflation, remains the question. Let’s look at last week’s CFTC futures and options net long positioning (hedge funds speculating on money printing, Bernanke Policies to Inflate, etc.) for some clues:

 

  1. The net long position in all of commodities collapsed another -16% last wk to 447,106 contracts
  2. Oil’s net long position dropped another -16% wk-over-wk to 175,211 contracts
  3. Farm Goods (think food) net long position crashed (again) another -24% to 145,564 contracts

 

Oh yeah, baby. Strong Dollar – we people who put gas in car, and food in mouth – we love you long time. But what, in this manic market, is a long time?

 

  1. March 2009? Yep. This is the lowest speculative net long position in CFTC contracts (commodity inflation) since 2009
  2. Corn contracts (down -20% last wk) are perpetuating the lowest food inflation expectations since, again, March 2009

 

For those of you still long the consumption related assets you bought after the March 2009 lows (we bought Starbucks, SBUX, at $11.52 in April of 2009, and still have it on #RealTimeAlerts; not a typo!), you are probably quite happy.

 

Freaking-out about the Commodity Gap now isn’t much different than freaking out about it then. I remember then almost like it was yesterday. People were pinging me with live quotes of “Dr. Copper crashing” saying the world was going to end. It didn’t. People who were long of Copper did.

 

Since the #PoliticalClass always asks for “solutions.” Why not try something no US President (under their Keynesian Economics regimes) has tried since the 1990s.  Why doesn’t the President of the United States hold a press conference today saying something like:

 

“Today, folks, is a great day in America. We finally cut spending and we are about to get this Bernanke character out the way on your savings accounts. Your currency is strengthening and your purchasing power is being restored. God Bless a free-market America.”

 

Anyone think that might happen? Bueller? Or does he really get this (and he’s just keeping it to himself)?

In the meantime, all I can tell you is this:

 

  1. WTIC Oil prices snapped our TREND line of $93.41/barrel support last week (-7% in the last month)
  2. Russian Stocks (which trade off oil expectations) snapped TREND of 1566 on the RTSI (-8% in the last month)
  3. Our immediate-term TRADE correlation between WTIC Oil and the US Dollar is now -0.99!

 

Enough of the #ClassWarfare speeches already. Mr. President, if you really want to help people who drive to work every day, tell the truth about Strong Dollar (+4% in the last month) and all its benefits as a real-time Tax Cut! Long live the Commodity Gap (down).

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (WTIC), Copper, US Dollar, USD/YEN, UST10yr Yield, VIX, Russell2000, and the SP500 are now $1, $89.72-92.93, $3.48-3.57, $81.44-82.65, 91.85-94.68, 1.81-1.94%, 11.96-17.18, 901-930, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Commodity Gap - Chart of the Day

 

Commodity Gap - Virtual Portfolio


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