THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 25, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or 0.90% downside to 1502 and 0.95% upside to 1530.          

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.73 from 1.71
  • VIX  closed at 14.17 1 day percent change of -6.90%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Jan (prior 0.02)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Feb. (prior 5.5)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.50b notes in 2020-2023 sector
  • 11:30am: Treasury to sell $35b 3-mo. bills, $30b 6-mo. bills
  • 1pm: Treasury to sell $35b 2Y notes
  • 7pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on economy in Knoxville, Tenn.

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate may consider $110b plan to delay federal spending cuts, incl. tax increases
    • Cnooc/Nexen deal expected to close this week
    • Bipartisan Policy Center to release proposals for scaling back govt role in mortgage finance
    • Karzai orders U.S. special forces out of key Afghan province
    • EU levy on U.S. bioethanol to curb competition takes effect
    • ITC judge to release findings in Cypress Semiconductor vs GSI Technology patent case
    • WASHINGTON WK AHEAD: Sequestration Cuts Set to Begin March 1

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Sinopec to buy 50% of Chesapeake’s Mississippi asset for $1.02b
  • Knight said to agree to sell debt brokerage to Stifel
  • Barnes & Noble founder said to offer to buy bookstore unit
  • Mozilla boosts partners for Firefox smartphone debut in ’13
  • Takeda, Affymax voluntarily recall anemia treatment Omontys
  • Royalty Pharma offers to buy Elan Corp. for $11/shr
  • Abe preparing to name Kuroda as next Bank of Japan governor
  • Japan to sell $10.3b Japan Tobacco stake
  • U.K. loses Aaa status at Moody’s; Osborne keeps austerity
  • RBS said to plan IPO for U.S. Citizens Financial Group unit
  • BHP says cost cuts a priority as mineral demand growth ebbs
  • China manufacturing expands at slower pace, HSBC PMI shows
  • China prepares for govt shuffle as Zhou stays PBOC chief
  • Italy elects new govt, voting ends at 3pm CET
  • ‘Identity Thief’ is top NA wknd film with $14m in sales
  • ‘Argo’ Wins Best Picture Oscar; ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ Shunned
  • U.S. manufacturing probably grew for third month: Weekly ECO preview
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Media/Ent, Real Estate, Transports
  • North American M&A Agenda
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • Bernanke, China Manuf., Hagel: Wk Ahead Feb. 25-March 1

EARNINGS:

    • Lowe’s (LOW) 6am, $0.23 - Preview
    • Allied Nevada Gold (ANV) 6:30am, $0.19
    • Donaldson Co (DCI) 7am, $0.38
    • Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS) 7am, $0.06
    • Arbitron (ARB) 7am, $0.66
    • CommonWealth REIT (CWH) 7am, $0.86
    • Impax Laboratories (IPXL) 7am, $0.19
    • Cooper Tire & Rubber Co (CTB) 7:30am, $0.85
    • Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) 7:35am, $(0.35)
    • Hecla Mining Co (HL) 8am, $0.03
    • 3D Systems (DDD) 8:15am, $0.39
    • FirstEnergy (FE) 8:24am, $0.79
    • Ship Finance International Ltd (SFL) 8:24am, $0.32
    • Dendreon (DNDN) 8:30am, $(0.54)
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) 4pm, $(1.66)
    • Tower Group (TWGP) 4pm, $(1.24)
    • Amsurg (AMSG) 4pm, $0.51
    • Rosetta Resources (ROSE) 4pm, $0.93
    • Autodesk (ADSK) 4:01pm, $0.49
    • Solar Capital Ltd (SLRC) 4:01pm, $0.60
    • Stone Energy (SGY) 4:03pm, $0.60
    • ONEOK (OKE) 4:05pm, $0.45
    • ONEOK Partners (OKS) 4:05pm, $0.62
    • URS (URS) 4:05pm, $0.97
    • Stifel Financial (SF) 4:05pm, $0.61
    • Dealertrack Technologies (TRAK) 4:05pm, $0.29
    • General Cable (BGC) 4:10pm, $0.28
    • Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) 4:11pm, $0.31
    • Legacy Reserves (LGCY) 4:27pm, $0.37
    • Oasis Petroleum (OAS) 4:30pm, $0.46
    • Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) 4:30pm, $0.03
    • Chemtura (CHMT) 4:36pm, $0.31
    • Titan International (TWI) 4:57pm, $0.47
    • Mindray Medical (MR) 5pm, $0.51
    • Health Care REIT (HCN) 5:01pm, $0.84
    • Vivus (VVUS) 5:15pm, $(0.44)
    • Aqua America (WTR) Post-Mkt, $0.28

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • CME Said to Approach Deutsche Boerse to Consider Talks on Merger
  • Gold Bets Cut by Most Since ’07 as Sugar Bears Grow: Commodities
  • Brent Crude Trades Near Four-Day High Before Iran Nuclear Talks
  • Wheat Falls to Eight-Month Low as Plains Snow May Ease Drought
  • Gold Gains in New York as Central-Bank Buying Counters ETP Drop
  • Aluminum Trades Unchanged at $2,048 a Ton in London, Erases Drop
  • Sugar Reaches Two-Week High on Record Bearish Bets; Coffee Rises
  • Russia, Kazakhstan Expand Gold Reserves for Fourth Month
  • Wilmar Says China Crushers Cut Soy Stocks Before Brazil Harvest
  • U.S. Gasoline Price Rises to $3.795 a Gallon in Lundberg Survey
  • BHP Says Cost Cutting Tops Agenda as Mineral Demand Growth Wanes
  • Rebar Declines to One-Month Low as China Plans Property Controls
  • Silicon Valley Shifting to Power Grid After Solar Sours: Energy
  • Oil May Fall to $91 After Double-Top Breach: Technical Analysis

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS

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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team