In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance
OVERALL: WORSE: While Hyatt remains focused on managing their business for the long term, the weak margins on owned and leased, and sluggish international results were a little disappointing
2013 OUTLOOK
- SAME: Hyatt feels the US will have a good year while some international markets like Baku, India, and select Chinese cities will continue to be under pressure due to supply absorption, renovations, and macro issues. Overall, there will be more volatility in the 1st half of 2013. Hyatt does believe that the current lodging cycle will last another several several years
- PREVIOUSLY: "In the coming quarter and then into early 2013, we're likely to see a carryover of the same type of issues that we saw in the third quarter... We do think that there are some signs of a more modest overall growth trajectory. Longer term, we continue to feel very confident about the strength of our brands and about the prospects for the industry."
RENOVATIONS
- SAME: Large hotels in Washington, DC and San Diego, and large Grand Hyatt hotels in Asia will comprise the major renovations in 2013.
- PREVIOUSLY: “Fee growth will be negatively affected in the short-term by ongoing renovations at large managed hotels, notably in the fourth quarter we expect the Grand Hyatt, San Diego, the Grand Hyatt and Hyatt Regency hotels in Washington, D.C., and the Hyatt Regency Dallas to be under renovation. As we look to next year, several of our large Grand Hyatt hotels in gateway cities in the Asia-Pacific region are planning renovations. These renovations are great for our brand presence and for our guests and for the owners over the long term, but do lead to short-term impact on RevPAR and fees."
HYATT REGENCY MEXICO CITY
- BETTER: Hotel Nikko earned over $10MM in adjusted EBITDA from May-December, ahead of its $8-10MM guidance. Hyatt expects +$20MM in adjusted EBITDA in 2013.
- PREVIOUSLY: "The Hotel Nikko acquisition in Mexico City which we acquired and rebranded as the Hyatt Regency in Mexico City this past May is performing well. We're on track to begin renovations to this property next year."
SHARE BUYBACK
- BETTER: During 4Q, Hyatt approximately $101MM of stock, which is more than they've repurchased all year.
- PREVIOUSLY: “We've approximately $131 million remaining under our authorization. We remained committed to a balanced strategy of investing in growth and also returning cash to shareholders when appropriate."
SG&A
- SAME: SG&A guidance of $305MM for 2013 is close to adjusted 2012 SG&A of $303MM.
- PREVIOUSLY: "We expect the realignment savings to continue into 2013, partially offset by wage and other cost inflation, and the selected increase in resources as we allocate some resources towards growth initiatives. Overall, we expect the net impact to result in sort of a flattish SG&A growth in 2013."
GROUP BOOKINGS
- BETTER: Up 4% in 2013 (half rate/half occup), compared with 'very low single-digit' growth in 3Q. Technology, retail, and manufacturing were the strongest groups. December bookings were the best they've seen since 2007 and January momentum was also good.
- PREVIOUSLY: "In the third quarter and heading into fourth quarter, definitely a slowdown in the rate of growth in group bookings for corporate customers. And I think a lot of that has to do with uncertainty due to the fiscal cliff, the election and the like. Government business was particularly weak, it was down in the third quarter for us significantly, so if you look at our third quarter results we had a slight decline in room nights for group bookings for the quarter. More than a 100% of that decline was derived from government business. Part of that is demand and part of it was yield-management decisions that we undertook to actually trade away from some of that business, so some unusual short-term impacts from the government side."
BOOKING WINDOW
- SAME: Beginning to lengthen, but still seeing a barbell booking pattern between short term corporate bookings in a 90 day window and association business out a year or 2.
- PREVIOUSLY: "We have a bit of a barbell going on in the sense of very different dynamics, short term among corporate groups and longer term among associations."
CHINA
- LITTLE WORSE: Despite a solid January, oversupply and austerity measures will pressure China performance. They anticipate that some of this will ease as the year progresses
- PREVIOUSLY: "RevPAR performance is expected to be weaker in China given the political changes. In addition, Beijing has seen a drop in corporate business which has been postponed until after the elections. We've seen a tightening of government spending, particularly in the south of China. Once the election is over, we anticipate corporate demand will return to more normalized levels."
INDIA
- SAME: Continued weakness seen in various India markets.
- PREVIOUSLY: "India RevPAR was also weak due to additional supply and the decrease in demand as a result of slowing economic growth. Most markets are not expected to see a rate increase as a result of the increased supply, near term, such as Mumbai and Delhi."
