TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 13, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or 0.62% downside to 1510 and 0.43% upside to 1526.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.74 from 1.72
- VIX closed at 12.64 1 day percent change of -2.32%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 8 (prior 3.4%)
- 8:30am: Import Price Index M/m, Jan., est. 0.8% (prior -0.1%)
- 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.5%)
- 10am: Business Inventories, Dec., est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
- 10:30am: DoE Inventory Reports
- 11am: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Arkansas on economy
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2042 sector
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $24b 10Y notes
- 5pm: Fed’s Dudley gives welcoming remarks at “Video Festival Finals” in N.Y.
GOVERNMENT:
- Confirmation hearing for Treasury Sec nominee Jacob Lew
- Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.; Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio; Jack Reed, D-R.I., hold news conference on importance of CFPB, urge confirmation of Richard Cordray as director. 2:30pm
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosts transport infrastructure summit
- Energy Dept., FERC hold meeting on coordination between natural gas, electricity markets. 9am
- House Financial Svcs Cmte hears from FHA Commissioner Carol Galante on agency’s Nov. report to Congress that revealed FHA may need taxpayer bailout. 10am
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds transportation infrastructure summit with Rep, Bill Shuster, R-Pa., Ingram Barge Co. CEO Craig Philip, Nick Atkins, CEO of American Electric Power, representatives from UPS, IBM, Lowes Hotels, JetBlue, 8:30am
- Senate Judiciary Cmte hears from Homeland Security Sec. Janet Napolitano on immigration law. 9:30am
WHAT TO WATCH
- Obama paints wider role for govt. in middle class revival
- Says U.S. will begin trade talks with 27 nations of EU
- Seeks minimum wage boost to bolster economy
- Proposing oil-funded trust to curb gas prices
- Apple said to have team of 100 developing wristwatch computer
- Copper cos. file court challenge to JPMorgan ETF approval
- G-7 roils currency markets with split on concern over yen
- CME’s Gill says would consider joining overseas consolidation
- Legg Mason said to name Joseph Sullivan CEO
- Moody’s authorizes $1b of stock buybacks after price drop
- Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein says he’ll stay for a while
- Morgan Stanley triples Mexico staff
- BlackRock picks Morgan Stanley’s Shedlin as CFO
- Batteries for 787 can’t be shipped on passenger planes: UN
- Brill Building said to sell Allied Partners for $200m
- Novartis’s $67k marrow drug fails to win U.K. agency backing
- Swiss impose capital buffer to calm overheating housing mkt
- MSCI announces quarterly index changes after mkt close
- Citigroup’s bank rating upgraded to stable by Moody’s
EARNINGS:
- Proto Labs (PRLB) 6am, $0.26
- Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) 6am, $0.16
- Calpine (CPN) 6am, $(0.05)
- MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) 6am, $0.02
- Blackbaud (BLKB) 6:30am, $0.24
- Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (CLMT) 6:30am, $0.69
- WellCare Health Plans (WCG) 6:30am, $1.31
- Manitoba Telecom Services (MBT CN) 6:30am, C$0.61
- Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) 7am, $0.55
- Dean Foods Co (DF) 7am, $0.30
- Henry Schein (HSIC) 7am, $1.21
- Deere & Co (DE) 7am, $1.40 - Preview
- Duke Energy (DUK) 7am, $0.64
- Lorillard (LO) 7am, $0.76
- WhiteWave Foods (WWAV) 7:30am, $0.17
- Hyatt Hotels (H) 7:30am, $0.12
- Hospira (HSP) 7:30am, $0.54 - Preview
- Sonoco Products Co (SON) 7:30am, $0.54
- Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW) 7:39am, $1.74
- Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) 8am, $0.85
- Mine Safety Appliances Co (MSA) 8:30am, $0.55
- CAE (CAE CN) 8:30am, $0.16
- Finning International (FTT CN) 9am, C$0.56
- Saputo (SAP CN) 11:58am, C$0.66
- Itron (ITRI) 4pm, $0.64
- ArthroCare (ARTC) 4pm, $0.37
- Mondelez International (MDLZ) 4pm, $0.37
- NVIDIA (NVDA) 4pm, $0.29
- KapStone Paper and Packaging (KS) 4:01pm, $0.27
- Morningstar (MORN) 4:01pm, $0.56
- NetApp (NTAP) 4:01pm, $0.56
- Equinix (EQIX) 4:01pm, $0.59
- TripAdvisor (TRIP) 4:02pm, $0.27
- Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) 4:03pm, $2.00
- Whole Foods Market (WFM) 4:03pm, $0.77
- MetLife (MET) 4:03pm, $1.18
- CenturyLink (CTL) 4:04pm, $0.68
- Sovran Self Storage (SSS) 4:05pm, $0.82
- Rovi (ROVI) 4:05pm, $0.44
- ValueClick (VCLK) 4:05pm, $0.51
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) 4:05pm, $0.48
- Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:05pm, $0.03
- Ingram Micro (IM) 4:05pm, $0.58
- Weight Watchers International (WTW) 4:05pm, $0.87
- Zillow (Z) 4:05pm, $0.00
- Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) 4:10pm, $0.50
- Corrections ofamerica (CXW) 4:10pm, $0.41
- j2 Global (JCOM) 4:15pm, $0.61
- Intrepid Potash (IPI) 4:15pm, $0.25
- Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD) 4:15pm, $0.88
- Oceaneering International (OII) 4:20pm, $0.72
- ION Geophysical (IO) 4:30pm, $0.13
- C&J Energy Services (CJES) 4:30pm, $0.67
- Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) 4:30pm, $0.60
- Washington Real Estate Investment Trust (WRE) 4:42pm, $0.46
- Home Capital Group (HCG CN) 5pm, C$1.68
- Taubman Centers (TCO) 5pm, $0.97
- Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM CN) 5pm, $0.46
- Kinross Gold (K CN) 5pm, $0.21
- TAL International Group (TAL) 5:01pm, $0.95
- EOG Resources (EOG) 5:01pm, $1.35
- Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) 5:10pm, C$0.45
- Calloway REIT (CWTu CN) 5:34pm, C$0.45
- Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) Post-Mkt, $0.47
- Avis Budget Group (CAR) Post-Mkt, $(0.07)
- Boardwalk REIT (BEIu CN) Post-Mkt, C$0.74
- Liberty Global (LBTYA) Post-Mkt, $(0.07)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
GOLD – being long Gold as US employment and housing continue to stabilize (ITB Housing ETF +3.8% yesterday in the US) doesn’t work. Finally getting an immediate-term TRADE oversold signal at $1641/oz, but Gold remains in a Bearish Formation.
- Corn Slides as Wheat Reaches Seven-Month Low on Rain Speculation
- Cameco Sees Japan Uranium Recovery After Fukushima: Commodities
- Platinum’s Premium to Gold Widens to 17-Month High on Zimbabwe
- Lead Rises a Second Day on Speculation China Will Resume Buying
- Oil Trades Near One-Week High; IEA Trims Global Demand Forecast
- Palm Oil Inventories in Malaysia Miss Estimates, Futures Slump
- Cocoa Seen Gaining in London as Manufacturers May Build Reserves
- Oil May Head to $100 With Two-Year Support: Technical Analysis
- Blackstone to OSG Win Record Tanker Rates on Export Ban: Freight
- Copper Companies File Court Challenge to JPMorgan ETF Approval
- Record Gulf Coast Exports Fuel Terminal Logjam: Energy Markets
- Astra Agro Sells 7,000 Tons of Crude Palm Oil in Auction (Table)
- Preview: Rio Tinto Earnings to Focus on $5b Cost-Savings Plan
- Palm Oil Drops as Stockpiles in Malaysia Hold Near Record Level
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
FRANCE – broke our TRADE line 3 weeks ago and continues to flash another negative divergence versus squeeze tapes (Greece and Spain) this morn; if you are hunting for shorts, hunt in France – the economic data sucks relative to USA/Germany.
ASIAN MARKETS
KOSPI – re-captures our intermediate-term TREND line of 1961 (post the NKorea headline noise); so that fixes 1 major equity market risk (for now); Bovespa and Sensex continue to signal bearish however.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
