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JCP: Top Line Roadmap. Keeping The Debate Alive

Takeaway: Let's keep the debate alive on the root of a key issue and map out the timing/impact of shop-in-shops. Like JCP or not, let's do some math.

Bulls and bears don’t agree on much with JCP, but they probably would agree that the trajectory of the company’s top line is the base-line of success or failure.  Even bears focused on (a compelling) liquidity case need to agree that liquidity is not an issue if top line shows up to the party.

 

That said, we find it surprising that in most discussions we have on JCP (both bulls and bears) the comp assumptions people use are often seemingly pulled out of thin air.

 

We concur that no one has a crystal ball on comp trends, including us. But the reality with JCP is that we have enough pieces of the puzzle to come up with an algorithm for how aggregate sales per square foot should change simply as higher-productivity shops are layered in over the legacy layout.

 

When we go through the math, our model suggests the following results:

JCP: Top Line Roadmap. Keeping The Debate Alive - summaryjcp

 

 

There are some important modeling variables:

1)      JCP end this year with 9 shops, adds 30 next year, and then evenly weights the remainder through the end of 2015.

2)      JCP touches 75,000 square feet, or about 69% of JCP’s total.

3)      Out of the 100 shops, there are a) 3 ‘Stores’ which measure 2,000 feet, b) 85 ‘Shops’ at 750 feet, c) 12 ‘Boutiques’ at 300 feet, and d) a town square at 2,000 feet.

4)      Shop additions are timed by month such that JCP maximizes its floor space during peak times of year. For example, during September and October 3-5% of the stores will be under construction, but only 1-2% will be renovated during holiday periods.

5)      As it relates to productivity, we assume that…

  1. For the full quarter stores under construction, that productivity get cut by 75%. While the space is being worked on, there is actually zero productivity, but on the flip side it is not usually closed down for a full quarter.
  2. Square footage that is altered gets a 15% comp lift. Remember that out of the eight shops opened thus far, there’s been just over a 30% lift. But this is far from uniform. One space went from $69/ft to $207/ft. Another went from $93 to $160/ft. But you don’t need to be a genius to figure out that to have this kind of productivity change and average out at only 32% in aggregate, there had to be a couple of stinkers bringing down the average.   Fortunately, those are the JCP branded shops and Arizona – two incumbents at JCP where the company mis-executed on fashion. From our perspective, we’re not too concerned here. We’re more excited to see the impact of shops from brands that will do the merchandising along with JCP – brands such as Nike, Giggle, Carter’s, Joe Fresh, Martha Stewart, Tourneau, and Bodum. We don’t think it’s too great of a stretch by any means for us to model a 15% lift with concentrated efforts by brands like this coming on.
  3. Unaltered square footage comps at zero, BUT…
  4. We add a ‘dysfunctional pricing’ quotient, which allows us to adjust the comp down for a good part of the next year while the company figures out its pricing strategy. Note that our model assumes that the negative impact that we’ve seen – and should continue to see in 2013 – ultimately goes away, but never reverses course and helps the model on the positive side.

6)      We know that this might seem like a completely ridiculous exercise today given that the topic du-jour is how the company can prevent using its credit line, defaulting on debt and continue store roll outs while it is comping down 35%. Bears will immediately come back and say that if sales trends persist, then store rollouts need to slow, or halt -- which is a game changer. But if the company can pull through, fund its expansion, and execute on its shop-in-shop strategy as outlined in this model, the math tells us that we could be looking at positive comps in mid-2013, mid-single digit comps throughout 2014, and low-double digit numbers by the end of the rollout.

 

Again, we appreciate the heated debate on this name, and concur that that there’s a lot that could go wrong (remembering that we were bearish with the stock in the $30s). But regardless as to where you stand on this one, let’s continue to flush out the facts, and keep the debate alive.

 

Call with any questions.

Brian

 

 Here’s the math behind our ‘shop-in-shop’ accretion analysis.

JCP: Top Line Roadmap. Keeping The Debate Alive - table2012

JCP: Top Line Roadmap. Keeping The Debate Alive - 13table

JCP: Top Line Roadmap. Keeping The Debate Alive - table2014

JCP: Top Line Roadmap. Keeping The Debate Alive - table2015

JCP: Top Line Roadmap. Keeping The Debate Alive - jcpstorescomplete


TRADE OF THE DAY: GPOR

Today we shorted Gulfport Energy (GPOR) at $41.57 a share at 9:44 AM EDT in our Real-Time Alerts. We'll get a better price than the CFO did selling stock. Shorting high on green in Hedgeye Energy Sector Head Kevin Kaiser's Best Idea (short side). Ask sales at Hedgeye dot com for our bearish slide deck from yesterday's Kaiser call. 

 

TRADE OF THE DAY: GPOR - TOTD


The Key To Recovery

 

Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell Exchange today to discuss the markets and the direction the US economy is headed in. Daryl lays out our thesis on what’s driving the economic recovery, including the housing market and how it drives consumption. You can watch the full video clip above.

 


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

RETAIL: Straight Out Of Comping

The recent trend with retailers is that many of the big boys haven’t increased guidance in a meaningful way. Despite double digit comps at Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS) and Nordstrom (JWS), guidance was hardly raised as the aforementioned players head into Q4 earnings in late February. 

 

 

RETAIL: Straight Out Of Comping - GBB

 

 

We think the lack of earnings power is due in part by promotional activity. Big discounts after the holidays, combined with gift card redemptions are the likely catalyst for companies commenting that the first part of the month was stronger than the second. Still, this is a much better than having bloated inventories heading into the Spring season, where comps will be tough. The chart below illustrates performance by price point. This month is the first time in three years that ‘Good, Better, Best’ has been inverted such that Kohl’s came in on top, then Macy’s, then JWN. 


S&P 500: Crushing Commodities

Over the last three months, the S&P 500 (SPY) is up +7.85% while the CRB Commodities Index, a broad index that measures 19 different commodities, is up a mere +2.8%. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP) is down -1.04% during the same time period. The catalyst for the upside in stocks and downside in commodities? Growth. As growth continues to stabilize, we’ll continue to see commodity prices fall and stocks rise. 

 

S&P 500: Crushing Commodities - CRBINDEX


BG – Big Miss On Risk Management, Still Prefer ADM

This was one of those quarters where BG’s risk management process “didn’t get it exactly right”.  This goes directly to one of the more consistent comments that we hear from investors regarding the company – that the company’s risk management activities can make an entire quarter’s earnings go away.  That appears to have been the case this morning as the company reported EPS of $0.57 per share versus consensus of $2.36.



While these quarter do tend to pop up every once awhile with BG, we think that the company is likely positioned for a solid 2013 and we continue to like the theme of global agricultural processing – getting the crop from where it’s grown to where it’s needed.



In the short-term however, we continue to believe that ADM represents the superior way to play that theme, for a few reasons:

  1. More leverage to the US crop and the potential for higher yields and increased acreage relative to ‘12
  2. Name still remains under owned
  3. Valuation support on a price/book basis

BG – Big Miss On Risk Management, Still Prefer ADM - ADM price to book

 

Longer-term, we have concerns about the size of the capital investment that ADM has made in corn ethanol, a business that we believe may have long-term structural issues, preferring in this instance BG’s exposure to sugar ethanol.  However, in the wake of a very disappointing earnings result at BG versus a modestly positive result (admittedly against very low expectations) at ADM, we think ADM makes more sense in the near-term (1-3 months).

 

Call with questions,

 

Rob


Robert  Campagnino

Managing Director

HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT, LLC

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Matt Hedrick

Senior Analyst






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