Jobless claims ticked down slightly by 5000 to 366,000 week-over-week, which was basically a non-event. Looking at the numbers on a seasonally-adjusted basis, however, it appears the labor market could be taking a turn for the worse. The 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -1.5k week-over-week to 350,500. The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -0.9% lower year-over-year, which is a sequential deterioration versus the previous week's year-over-year change of -4.7%. The payroll tax hike could in fact be having a negative effect on employment.