TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 7, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or 1.33% downside to 1492 and 0.32% upside to 1517.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
BRAZIL – the Bovespa has joined the KOSPI confirming TRADE and TREND duration breakdowns – this, combined with European Indices breaking their immediate-term TRADE lines almost across the board, is new. We respect new.
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.73 from 1.71
- VIX closed at 13.41 1 day percent change of -2.26%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: BoE announces interest rates
- 7:45am: ECB announces interest rates
- 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi holds news conference
- 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, 4Q P, est. -1.4% (prior 2.9%)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Feb. 2 est. 360k (prior 368k)
- 9:30am: Fed’s Stein speaks on financial stability in St. Louis
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Feb. 3 (prior -37.5)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b debt in 2036-2042 sector
- 3pm: Consumer Credit, Dec., est. $14b (prior $16.045b)
GOVERNMENT:
- NTSB Chairman Deborah Hersman provides update of investigation into Jan. 7 fire that occurred on Japan Airlines Boeing 787 at Logan Intl Airport in Boston, 11am
- Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., holds news conference on legislation to stop corporations from sheltering income in Cayman Islands, other tax havens, 10:30am
- N. Anthony Coles, CEO of Onyx Pharmaceuticals, attends Senate briefing with FDA Commissioner targaret Hamburg, 12pm
- ITC votes on dumping of frozen, warm-water shrimp from China, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam
- FAA, DOT hold mtg on performance standards for collision avoidance systems, 8:30am
- USPS Board of Governors hold closed mtg, 10am
WHAT TO WATCH
- Euro strengthens against the dollar before ECB policy decision
- BOE will likely maintain benchmark interest rate at 0.5%
- January retail sales likely helped by clearance
- China injects record $138b into financial system
- Barclays said to dismiss traders amid 275 job cuts in New York
- U.S. Airways talks with AMR said to intensify as deadline looms
- McGraw-Hill defense seen as diversion against U.S. fraud claims
- Deep-water safety defect threatens global offshore oil drilling
- Libor accords leave banks facing states with massive claims
- JPMorgan overtakes Wells Fargo as most valuable bank in U.S.
- Yahoo links up with Google to put ads on finance, news sites
- BofA said to shift U.S. Trust bonuses in push for more clients
- Dell sets Nov. 5 deadline to complete $24.4b LBO deal
- Teck Resources earnings beat est; sees 2013 coal input of 25mt
- U.K. manufacturing rises most since July on machinery, chemicals
- Spain sells EU4.6b bonds vs maximum target EU4.5b
EARNINGS:
- Cigna (CI) 6am, $1.48
- Cognizant (CTSH) 6am, $0.91
- Manulife Financial (MFC CN) 6am, C$0.32 - Preview
- ON Semiconductor (ONNN) 6am, $0.07
- Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) 6am, $0.29
- Starwood Hotels (HOT) 6am, $0.65
- Air Canada (AC/A CN) 6am, C$(0.23)
- Bunge (BG) 6:30am, $2.32
- Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) 6:30am, $0.44
- Flowers Foods (FLO) 6:30am, $0.25
- Hasbro (HAS) 6:30am, $1.16
- International Flavors (IFF) 6:40am, $0.84
- Ingredion (INGR) 6:45am, $1.42
- Teradata (TDC) 6:55am, $0.74
- Philip Morris (PM) 6:59am, $1.22 - Preview
- BCE (BCE CN) 7am, C$0.66
- Fortis (FTS CN) 7am, C$0.50
- Lazard (LAZ) 7am, $0.33
- Sally Beauty (SBH) 7am, $0.34
- Scripps Networks (SNI) 7am, $0.92
- Sprint Nextel (S) 7am, $(0.44) - Preview
- Xylem (XYL) 7am, $0.46
- Noble Energy (NBL) 7:28am, $1.13
- FLIR Systems (FLIR) 7:30am, $0.50
- MSCI (MSCI) 7:30am, $0.53
- Och-Ziff (OZM) 7:30am, $0.72
- Monster Worldwide (MWW) 7:30am, $0.07
- Exelon (EXC) 7:30am, $0.65
- Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) 7:30am, $0.08
- KKR & Co (KKR) 7:55am, $0.21
- Arrow Electronics (ARW) 8am, $1.08
- Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP-U CN) 8am, $0.01
- Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) 8am, $0.95
- Shoppers Drug Mart (SC CN) 8:21am, C$0.84
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) 8:30am, $0.75
- New York Times (NYT) 8:30am, $0.31
- Medical Properties Trust (MPW) 8:30am, $0.26
- Great-West Lifeco (GWO CN) 10:49am, $0.53 - Preview
- NCR (NCR) 4pm, $0.70
- Coinstar (CSTR) 4:01pm, $0.76
- Genpact Ltd (G) 4:01pm, $0.24
- Nuance Communications (NUAN) 4:01pm, $0.36
- XL Group (XL ) 4:01pm, $(0.36)
- American Capital Agency (AGNC) 4:01pm, $0.95
- Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) 4:01pm, $0.20
- CareFusion (CFN) 4:02pm, $0.52
- Prospect Capital (PSEC) 4:02pm, $0.42
- Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:05pm, $0.72
- Republic Services (RSG) 4:05pm, $0.43
- SunPower (SPWR) 4:05pm, $0.14
- Riverbed Technology (RVBD) 4:05pm, $0.29
- DCT Industrial Trust (DCT) 4:10pm, $0.10
- Apartment Investment & Management Co (AIV) 4:11pm, $0.50
- LinkedIn (LNKD) 4:15pm, $0.19
- Microchip Technology (MCHP) 4:15pm, $0.39
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – huge headwind developing for global consumption #GrowthStabilizing with Brent Oil signaling higher-highs and higher lows on our intermediate-term TREND duration. If you need a reason to start selling some stocks and covering Treasury shorts, that’s it.
- Brent Crude Rises to Four-Month High, Extends Premium Over WTI
- U.S. Soy Supply at 48-Year Low as Brazil Ships Held: Commodities
- World Food Prices Were Stable in January, According to UN Index
- Zinc Falls for Third Day as Euro-Area Economies Keep Struggling
- Corn Drops on Speculation USDA May Raise U.S. Stockpile Outlook
- Platinum Rally Stalls on Speculation Miners May Boost Selling
- Offshore Drilling Halted by U.S. on Wells With Flawed Bolts
- Rebar Advances to Nine-Month High as Iron Ore Rallies on Demand
- Cooking Oil Imports by India Seen Climbing to Record to Beat Tax
- China Buys Gas at Record as Crude Imports Capped: Energy Markets
- Copper Seen in ‘Struggle’ to Exceed $8,422: Technical Analysis
- Olam Second-Quarter Profit Jumps 20% on Grains, Nut Volumes
- Astra Agro Sells 11,000 Tons of Palm Oil in Auction (Table)
- Nickel Seen by Deutsche Bank Rebounding After Chinese New Year
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
EUROPE – what would be really interesting is if we saw the EuroStoxx50 snap its intermediate-term TREND line of 2615 support; its hanging on, barely, this morning – but we need to give this one some time. Waiting/watching for headfakes has been key.
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team