TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 5, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or 0.45% downside to 1489 and 1.16% upside to 1513.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.74 from 1.71
- VIX closed at 14.67 1 day percent change of 13.72%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 6:30am: ESM to sell as much as EUR2b 91D bills
- 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
- 8:30am: Fed’s Duke speaks on community banks in Duluth, Ga.
- 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, Jan., est. 55.0 (prior 55.7)
- 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Feb. est. 47 (prior 46.5)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b debt in 2036-2042 sector
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell 4W bills, $25b in 1Y bills
GOVERNMENT:
- CBO releases federal budget projections, economic outlook
- Yahoo’s Mayer, Goldman’s Blankfein in Obama immigration session
- CFTC holds public roundtable to discuss agency’s proposed rulemaking, “Enhancing Protections Afforded Customers and Customer Funds Held by Futures Commission Merchants and Derivatives Clearing Organizations,” 9:30am
- SEC holds a roundtable discussion on decimal-based trading, tick sizes for small, medium sized companies, 10am
- CFPB Director Richard Cordray, National Credit Union Administration Board Chairman Debbie Matz hold “town hall webinar” on “Ability-to-Repay” rule, 3pm
- HHS, FDA discuss creation of alternative pathway for expediting approval of drugs needed for unmet medical needs, 9am
- FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski holds field hearings on Hurricane Sandy to consider how nation’s communications networks work during crises, 9am, 2pm.
- FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell and David Gross, former U.S. ambassador for international communications and information policy, testify at hearing on Internet freedom before 3 House subcmtes, 10:30am
WHAT TO WATCH
- Dell board said to meet to vote on $24b leveraged buyout
- Virgin Media in talks with Liberty Global on possible transaction
- Hartford announces buyback, debt repayment plan after Sandy
- Goldman hired by Russia as corporate broker to boost image
- U.K. economy faces risk of a prolonged stagnation, NIESR says
- German push to speed bank bondholder-loss plan gains momentum
- Wells Fargo to target sovereign wealth funds in Dubai expansion
- Buffett gets $1.8b in investment assets from Cigna deal
- Fidelity said to press Endo Health to consider selling itself
- Facebook said to develop location-tracker app for smartphones
- Homes sell in 2 weeks as U.S. spring buyers face low inventory
- MF Global customer funds rules will get another hearing at CFTC
- UBS 4Q loss narrower than est. after Libor fine, job cuts
- Hemispherx fails to win U.S. approval for chronic fatigue drug
- IBM adds cheaper power servers to expand in emerging markets
- Boeing asks U.S. FAA to permit test flights with Dreamliner
- J.C. Penney asks judge to bar claim retailer defaulted on bonds
- Consumer Reports says Ford, GM turbo engine benefits overstated
- Shirakawa plans to exit as Bank of Japan governor on March 19
EARNINGS:
- Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6am, $1.23
- Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6am, $1.09
- Centene (CNC) 6am, $0.36
- Emerson Electric (EMR) 6:30am, $0.62
- Spectra Energy (SE) 6:30am, $0.31
- Eaton (ETN) 6:30am, $0.93
- Littelfuse (LFUS) 6:30am, $0.84
- Church & Dwight (CHD) 7am, $0.57
- Cardinal Health (CAH) 7am, $0.86
- Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) 7am, $0.02
- Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) 7am, $0.59
- Delphi Automotive (DLPH) 7am, $0.87
- OneBeacon Insurance Group (OB) 7am, $0.12
- Techne (TECH) 7am, $0.77
- Aecom Technology (ACM) 7am, $0.30
- HCA Holdings (HCA) 7:03am, $0.83
- Alliant Techsystems (ATK) 7:30am, $1.71
- Teco Energy (TE) 7:30am, $0.21
- Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $1.05
- Automatic Data Processing (ADP) 7:30am, $0.71
- Vishay (VSH) 7:30am, $0.08
- Arch Coal (ACI) 7:45am, $(0.15)
- Inergy Midstream (NRGM) 7:45am, $0.16
- Inergy (NRGY) 7:46am, $0.08
- SunCoke Energy (SXC) 7:59am, $0.34
- Magellan Midstream (MMP) 8am, $0.65
- Spectra Energy (SEP) 8am, $0.37
- Computer Sciences (CSC) 8am, $0.65
- Kellogg Co (K) 8am, $0.66 - Preview
- UDR (UDR) 8am, $0.34
- Agco (AGCO) 8am, $0.98
- Liberty Property Trust (LRY) 8am, $0.63
- Lennox International (LII) 8am, $0.55
- Allergan (AGN) 9am, $1.18 - Preview
- Bell Aliant (BA CN) Pre-Mkt, C$0.41
- Unum Group (UNM) 4pm, $0.77
- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 4pm, $1.95
- Expedia (EXPE) 4pm, $0.65
- Ultimate Software (ULTI) 4pm, $0.39
- Universal (UVV) 4pm, NA
- Panera Bread Co (PNRA) 4pm, $1.74
- CBL & Associates Properties (CBL) 4pm, $0.57
- Kimco Realty (KIM) 4:01pm, $0.31
- Cerner (CERN) 4:01pm, $0.64
- Fiserv (FISV) 4:01pm, $1.40
- CME Group (CME) 4:01pm, $0.64
- NeuStar (NSR) 4:01pm, $0.72
- Hanesbrands (HBI) 4:01pm, $1.04
- Team Health (TMH) 4:01pm, $0.35
- Shutterfly (SFLY) 4:02pm, $1.39
- Thoratec (THOR) 4:02pm, $0.37
- Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) 4:05pm, $0.55
- Zynga (ZNGA) 4:05pm, $(0.03)
- Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) 4:05pm, $0.50
- Myriad Genetics (MYGN) 4:05pm, $0.38
- Alterra Capital Holdings (ALTE) 4:05pm, $(0.44)
- Trimble Navigation (TRMB) 4:05pm, $0.55
- Aflac (AFL) 4:07pm, $1.48
- Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) 4:10pm, $0.69
- Genworth Financial (GNW) 4:10pm, $0.27
- KKR Financial Holdings (KFN) 4:12pm, $0.39
- Walt Disney (DIS) 4:15pm, $0.77
- CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) 4:15pm, $0.70
- Equity Residential (EQR) 4:25pm, $0.76
- Genworth MI Canada (MIC CN) 4:30pm, C$0.78
- Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) 5pm, $0.28
- HNI (HNI) 5:30pm, $0.43
- Suncor Energy (SU CN) 10pm, C$0.74
- BioMed Realty Trust (BMR) Post-Mkt, $0.34
- MDU Resources Group (MDU) Post-Mkt, $0.39
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
CRB Index – Commodities failing at our long-term TAIL risk line for the CRB Index (306) was a big reason why we got longer of Asian/US stocks into yesterday’s close; CRB Index (peaked in 2011) = long-term bubble that is popping as the US Dollar continues to make a series of long-term higher lows; Oil is overbought up here, but we need to see that drop back below $113 (Brent).
- Iron Ore Seen Poised for Bear Market by Smirk as Supply Expands
- Platinum Supply Falls to 13-Year Low as Mines Close: Commodities
- Oil Rises From One-Week Low as Recovery Signs Counter Supplies
- Platinum Trades Near 17-Week High on Concern Supplies Will Fall
- Nickel Drops Most in Three Weeks as Investors Seek to Curb Risk
- Soybeans Rise for Third Session as Brazil Rain May Slow Harvest
- Coffee Gains as Vietnam Growers Hold Supplies; Sugar Advances
- Oil Supplies Rise in Survey on Seaway Disruption: Energy Markets
- Gasoline at U.S. Pumps Jumps Most in Two Years on Crude Rally
- Mongolia Should Get More Control of Rio Mine, President Says
- ADM Profit Beats Estimates After Soybean-Processing Margins Gain
- Niger in Talks With Areva for Uranium Mines to Give More Funds
- Record China Flour Cost Spurring Wheat Imports: Chart of the Day
- Anglo American CEO Carroll Says Platinum Industry Is ‘in Crisis’
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
EUROPE – didn’t take much to freak people out in European Equities – Socialist Quote of The Day “the Euro shouldn’t fluctuate as the market sees fit” (Hollande), as France reports a bomb of a Services PMI print for JAN at 43.6 (vs 45.2 last month); UK and Germany both had very solid PMI reports – both equity markets look very bullish compared to France, Italy, and Spain.
ASIAN MARKETS
KOSPI – continues to be a stealth leading indicator (broke TRADE and TREND supports in the last 3 weeks) and confirmed that bearish TREND overnight, down another -0.8% to 1938 (TREND resistance = 1959); China, Singapore, and Hong Kong look nothing like the KOSPI (so buy those); Shanghai Comp closed up +0.2% last night, despite the European freak-out.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team