THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

02/05/13 07:35AM EST

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 5, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or 0.45% downside to 1489 and 1.16% upside to 1513.             

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.74 from 1.71
  • VIX  closed at 14.67 1 day percent change of 13.72%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 6:30am: ESM to sell as much as EUR2b 91D bills
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 8:30am: Fed’s Duke speaks on community banks in Duluth, Ga.
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, Jan., est. 55.0 (prior 55.7)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Feb. est. 47 (prior 46.5)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b debt in 2036-2042 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell 4W bills, $25b in 1Y bills

GOVERNMENT:

    • CBO releases federal budget projections, economic outlook
    • Yahoo’s Mayer, Goldman’s Blankfein in Obama immigration session
    • CFTC holds public roundtable to discuss agency’s proposed rulemaking, “Enhancing Protections Afforded Customers and Customer Funds Held by Futures Commission Merchants and Derivatives Clearing Organizations,” 9:30am
    • SEC holds a roundtable discussion on decimal-based trading, tick sizes for small, medium sized companies, 10am
    • CFPB Director Richard Cordray, National Credit Union Administration Board Chairman Debbie Matz hold “town hall webinar” on “Ability-to-Repay” rule, 3pm
    • HHS, FDA discuss creation of alternative pathway for expediting approval of drugs needed for unmet medical needs, 9am
    • FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski holds field hearings on Hurricane Sandy to consider how nation’s communications networks work during crises, 9am, 2pm.
    • FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell and David Gross, former U.S. ambassador for international communications and information policy, testify at hearing on Internet freedom before 3 House subcmtes, 10:30am

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Dell board said to meet to vote on $24b leveraged buyout
  • Virgin Media in talks with Liberty Global on possible transaction
  • Hartford announces buyback, debt repayment plan after Sandy
  • Goldman hired by Russia as corporate broker to boost image
  • U.K. economy faces risk of a prolonged stagnation, NIESR says
  • German push to speed bank bondholder-loss plan gains momentum
  • Wells Fargo to target sovereign wealth funds in Dubai expansion
  • Buffett gets $1.8b in investment assets from Cigna deal
  • Fidelity said to press Endo Health to consider selling itself
  • Facebook said to develop location-tracker app for smartphones
  • Homes sell in 2 weeks as U.S. spring buyers face low inventory
  • MF Global customer funds rules will get another hearing at CFTC
  • UBS 4Q loss narrower than est. after Libor fine, job cuts
  • Hemispherx fails to win U.S. approval for chronic fatigue drug
  • IBM adds cheaper power servers to expand in emerging markets
  • Boeing asks U.S. FAA to permit test flights with Dreamliner
  • J.C. Penney asks judge to bar claim retailer defaulted on bonds
  • Consumer Reports says Ford, GM turbo engine benefits overstated
  • Shirakawa plans to exit as Bank of Japan governor on March 19

EARNINGS:

  • Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6am, $1.23
  • Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6am, $1.09
  • Centene (CNC) 6am, $0.36
  • Emerson Electric (EMR) 6:30am, $0.62
  • Spectra Energy (SE) 6:30am, $0.31
  • Eaton (ETN) 6:30am, $0.93
  • Littelfuse (LFUS) 6:30am, $0.84
  • Church & Dwight (CHD) 7am, $0.57
  • Cardinal Health (CAH) 7am, $0.86
  • Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) 7am, $0.02
  • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) 7am, $0.59
  • Delphi Automotive (DLPH) 7am, $0.87
  • OneBeacon Insurance Group (OB) 7am, $0.12
  • Techne (TECH) 7am, $0.77
  • Aecom Technology (ACM) 7am, $0.30
  • HCA Holdings (HCA) 7:03am, $0.83
  • Alliant Techsystems (ATK) 7:30am, $1.71
  • Teco Energy (TE) 7:30am, $0.21
  • Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $1.05
  • Automatic Data Processing (ADP) 7:30am, $0.71
  • Vishay (VSH) 7:30am, $0.08
  • Arch Coal (ACI) 7:45am, $(0.15)
  • Inergy Midstream (NRGM) 7:45am, $0.16
  • Inergy (NRGY) 7:46am, $0.08
  • SunCoke Energy (SXC) 7:59am, $0.34
  • Magellan Midstream (MMP) 8am, $0.65
  • Spectra Energy (SEP) 8am, $0.37
  • Computer Sciences (CSC) 8am, $0.65
  • Kellogg Co (K) 8am, $0.66 - Preview
  • UDR (UDR) 8am, $0.34
  • Agco (AGCO) 8am, $0.98
  • Liberty Property Trust (LRY) 8am, $0.63
  • Lennox International (LII) 8am, $0.55
  • Allergan (AGN) 9am, $1.18 - Preview
  • Bell Aliant (BA CN) Pre-Mkt, C$0.41
  • Unum Group (UNM) 4pm, $0.77
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 4pm, $1.95
  • Expedia (EXPE) 4pm, $0.65
  • Ultimate Software (ULTI) 4pm, $0.39
  • Universal (UVV) 4pm, NA
  • Panera Bread Co (PNRA) 4pm, $1.74
  • CBL & Associates Properties (CBL) 4pm, $0.57
  • Kimco Realty (KIM) 4:01pm, $0.31
  • Cerner (CERN) 4:01pm, $0.64
  • Fiserv (FISV) 4:01pm, $1.40
  • CME Group (CME) 4:01pm, $0.64
  • NeuStar (NSR) 4:01pm, $0.72
  • Hanesbrands (HBI) 4:01pm, $1.04
  • Team Health (TMH) 4:01pm, $0.35
  • Shutterfly (SFLY) 4:02pm, $1.39
  • Thoratec (THOR) 4:02pm, $0.37
  • Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) 4:05pm, $0.55
  • Zynga (ZNGA) 4:05pm, $(0.03)
  • Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) 4:05pm, $0.50
  • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) 4:05pm, $0.38
  • Alterra Capital Holdings (ALTE) 4:05pm, $(0.44)
  • Trimble Navigation (TRMB) 4:05pm, $0.55
  • Aflac (AFL) 4:07pm, $1.48
  • Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) 4:10pm, $0.69
  • Genworth Financial (GNW) 4:10pm, $0.27
  • KKR Financial Holdings (KFN) 4:12pm, $0.39
  • Walt Disney (DIS) 4:15pm, $0.77
  • CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) 4:15pm, $0.70
  • Equity Residential (EQR) 4:25pm, $0.76
  • Genworth MI Canada (MIC CN) 4:30pm, C$0.78
  • Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) 5pm, $0.28
  • HNI (HNI) 5:30pm, $0.43
  • Suncor Energy (SU CN) 10pm, C$0.74
  • BioMed Realty Trust (BMR) Post-Mkt, $0.34
  • MDU Resources Group (MDU) Post-Mkt, $0.39

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

CRB Index – Commodities failing at our long-term TAIL risk line for the CRB Index (306) was a big reason why we got longer of Asian/US stocks into yesterday’s close; CRB Index (peaked in 2011) = long-term bubble that is popping as the US Dollar continues to make a series of long-term higher lows; Oil is overbought up here, but we need to see that drop back below $113 (Brent).

  • Iron Ore Seen Poised for Bear Market by Smirk as Supply Expands
  • Platinum Supply Falls to 13-Year Low as Mines Close: Commodities
  • Oil Rises From One-Week Low as Recovery Signs Counter Supplies
  • Platinum Trades Near 17-Week High on Concern Supplies Will Fall
  • Nickel Drops Most in Three Weeks as Investors Seek to Curb Risk
  • Soybeans Rise for Third Session as Brazil Rain May Slow Harvest
  • Coffee Gains as Vietnam Growers Hold Supplies; Sugar Advances
  • Oil Supplies Rise in Survey on Seaway Disruption: Energy Markets
  • Gasoline at U.S. Pumps Jumps Most in Two Years on Crude Rally
  • Mongolia Should Get More Control of Rio Mine, President Says
  • ADM Profit Beats Estimates After Soybean-Processing Margins Gain
  • Niger in Talks With Areva for Uranium Mines to Give More Funds
  • Record China Flour Cost Spurring Wheat Imports: Chart of the Day
  • Anglo American CEO Carroll Says Platinum Industry Is ‘in Crisis’

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CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – didn’t take much to freak people out in European Equities – Socialist Quote of The Day “the Euro shouldn’t fluctuate as the market sees fit” (Hollande), as France reports a bomb of a Services PMI print for JAN at 43.6 (vs 45.2 last month); UK and Germany both had very solid PMI reports – both equity markets look very bullish compared to France, Italy, and Spain.

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ASIAN MARKETS


KOSPI – continues to be a stealth leading indicator (broke TRADE and TREND supports in the last 3 weeks) and confirmed that bearish TREND overnight, down another -0.8% to 1938 (TREND resistance = 1959); China, Singapore, and Hong Kong look nothing like the KOSPI (so buy those); Shanghai Comp closed up +0.2% last night, despite the European freak-out.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

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