Howard Penney (Restaurants):
Todd Jordan (GLL):
Rob Campagnino (Consumer Staples):
Howard Penney (Restaurants):
Todd Jordan (GLL):
Rob Campagnino (Consumer Staples):
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 1, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or 0.88% downside to 1485 and 0.86% upside to 1511.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
WHAT TO WATCH
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
YEN – getting Taro Aso’d to a fresh new low this morning as the old band (Japan’s Serial Money Printers) buy 10.3% of ESM (Europe) debt in January. Take their word for it, they are burning their currency.
GERMANY – with a manufacturing PMI print of 49.8 in JAN (vs 46 in DEC), there are very few countries in our GIP Model (Growth, Inflation, Policy) that look as good as Germany does right now = Growth Accelerating, Inflation Decelerating. Contrary to popular Keynesian belief, there is big upside to a strong currency – and that is the Euro right now, new high at $1.36 vs USD.
The Hedgeye Macro Team
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"To be a great champion, you must believe you are the best. If you’re not, pretend you are.”
- Muhammad Ali
Last night Big Alberta (aka Daryl Jones) gave me the late look that I was to write this Early Look, so this morning I get to take extra creative liberties and subject you all to thoughts on my sector, Energy.
It’s a difficult space to make money in when oil prices aren’t going straight up, a la 2009 and 2010.
Oil and gas companies – particularly the producers (E&Ps) – are highly promotional, as they have to be, in order to raise capital for what has become an incredibly capital-intensive industry. In 2012, capital expenditures from S&P500 companies in the Energy sector were 39% of the index’s total; in 2000, they were only 12% (see Chart below). Someone’s got to foot that bill, as the companies can’t do it on their own – the free cash flow yield of that same group was 0.0% in 2012, and if you back out a few cash cows like ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, you’ll find that most producers are not self-funding.
Nevertheless, in general, market participants hold the energy sector near-and-dear to their hearts. Investors tend to anchor on recent history, and energy was by far the best performing sector over the last decade (XLE +200%). And the sell-side knows what pays the rent – capital raises – so it’s not too surprising that Energy has the highest percentage of “buy” ratings and lowest percentage of “sell” ratings of all S&P500 sectors.
But is the love deserved? Most E&Ps cannot generate a return greater than their cost of capital (aka “create value”), even with real oil prices near multi-decade highs and interest rates at multi-decade lows. We shudder to think what a serious back up in rates would do to the sector…bankruptcy cycle?
But all is not lost (can’t get too cynical on a Friday)! Among all the wealth destruction so colorfully described by activist investors in recent letters to the shareholders of Chesapeake (Icahn), Sandridge (TPG), Murphy Oil (Loeb), and Hess (Elliott), there are legitimate franchises and investment opportunities in the sector. Over our long-term TAIL duration, we believe that select companies highly-levered to US natural gas prices will generate the best risk-adjusted investment returns in the space.
As we hover around nominal natural gas prices last seen on a consistent basis in the 1990s, it is a non-consensus view, so it needs some defending…
1. Because natural gas is a local commodity, market fundamentals (supply, demand, and inventories) in North America impact prices in North America. It is a remarkably efficient commodity market, and one which we can fundamentally believe in. If we have a warm winter, natural gas prices go down – we get that. We can’t necessarily say the same about global oil markets.
2. In a world characterized by slow growth and tail risk, we think natural gas is a relative safe-haven. If China has a debt crisis or the EU collapses, we will still heat our homes and turn our lights on. US demand for natural gas is inelastic – in 2009 it fell only 1% compared to a 3% drop in US real GDP.
3. Natural gas will continue to take power generation market share away from coal. We estimate the natural gas demand from the power sector was +20% y/y in 2012, largely due to coal-to-gas switching and the retirement of aging coal plants. At least 10% of existing coal-fired capacity is likely to shut down between 2012 – 2015 due to impending emissions regulations.
4. Demand from the industrial sector should grow above GDP as new petrochemical, chemical, fertilizer, and steel plants come take advantage of the energy cost advantage in North America relative to the rest of the world. As one example, Italy’s M&G Group announced last month that it will build the world’s largest single-line PET plant in Corpus Christi, Texas. M&G remarked, “This is the largest PET investment ever in the western world and probably one of the largest investments recently announced in the US in the private sector.”
5. Price is below the marginal cost of dry gas production, which we consider to be $4.50 - $5.00/Mcf, or the price at which producers can generate a positive return on a Haynesville Shale gas well. We do think that we have seen the last of Haynesville Shale production growth.
6. Longer-term, we are optimistic about new sources of natural gas demand: LNG exports and natural gas as legitimate transportation fuel. With the right R&D and policy measures, both are economic and feasible, in our view.
We’re not going to give away the shop here, so if you’d like to discuss ways to invest in the thesis send us an email at . Further, on Wednesday 2/6 we’re going to host a Black Book presentation and conference call for institutional clients on Gulfport Energy Corp. (GPOR). There we have a very non-consensus view. For now, we’ll just say that it’s one of the more promotional companies in the space... Email for details on that call.
Have a great weekend,
The Macau Metro Monitor, February 1, 2013
ONLY 250 NEW TABLES TO BE APPROVED IN 2013: GOVT Macau Business
Secretary Tam said the government would only approve a total of 250 new live gaming tables this year. Of those, 200 have already been granted to Sands China. The remaining 50 will be allocated to Galaxy, said Tam.
“When the first phase of Galaxy Macau was completed, the government allotted a total of 450 gaming tables to the company; 400 tables were approved when it was opened and 50 more gaming tables are to be approved,” he said. Tam stressed the government would not be approving any new gaming tables to existing casinos from other gaming operators. SJM executive director Angela Leong On Kei had said last month that the gaming operator would apply for more tables.
Meanwhile, officials are to focus now on the table allocation for the upcoming projects in Cotai, Tam said. He reaffirmed that the investment in non-gaming facilities would be taken into account by the government. At least six new casino resorts will be built there in the coming years, one per gaming operator. In 2013, with the announced addition of 250 new gaming tables, the annual increase rate in the number of tables will be 4.6%. At the end of last year, Macau had 5,485 tables.
JANUARY GGR DICJ
Macau Gross Gaming Revenues rose 7.3% YoY to 26.864 MOP (26.08 HKD, 3.36 USD) billion.
RESORT WORLD SENTOSA'S CASINO LICENSE RENEWED FOR 3 MORE YEARS Strait Times
RWS's casino licence has been renewed for another three years. The Casino Regulatory Authority of Singapore (CRA) said RWS's new licence will come into effect from Feb 6.
A CRA spokesman said that RWS' compliance record was one of many factors considered with assessing the licence application. She added, "In renewing RWS' casino licence, CRA has imposed additional requirements on RWS to put in place more robust structures and processes aimed at strengthening its overall compliance of our laws and regulations." Just last month, RWS was penalised $100,000 for breaches of the casino regulations.
We thought they beat on revenues but we’ll take the margin beat
BYI delivered another solid quarter on the back of better than expected margins. While revenues missed our estimate, they were in-line with consensus and strong gross margins pushed EPS above even our Street high estimate of 79 cents. The market clearly liked what they saw, as the stock rallied another 2% after hours on top of being up 6% intraday. At $49, the stock trades at 15x FY2014 earnings and throws off a 10% FCF yield, not bad in our opinion, especially given the price tag that SGMS was willing to pay for WMS, which we believe is an inferior business. We have long thought BYI’s system business was way undervalued by investors. With more predictable revenues and consistent growth, valuation of this segment should command its due premium.
So what did we like in the quarter?
What wasn’t so hot?
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.