2013 EARLY WAVE SEASON PRICING

Our pricing survey shows a mixed picture

 

 

Wave Season has officially begun and there seems to be much optimism in 2013, particularly on a stronger pricing recovery in Europe.  While we’re seeing solid gains in Costa and the premium brands—Celebrity, Azamara, and Princess—in European pricing, the mass brands are discounting pretty heavily.  Investor optimism may go partially unfulfilled. 

 

Our proprietary pricing database tracks over 12,000 itineraries across six major geographic regions.  We analyze YoY trends as well as relative trends, determined by pricing relative to those seen near the last earnings date for a cruise operator.  Here are some highlights we’re seeing:

 

RCL

 

Caribbean:  Overall, the trend is improving in the 1st month of Wave Season.  F1Q 2013 will be down YoY due to strong Caribbean performance in F1Q 2012. Celebrity (premium) pricing is outperforming RC (mass) by a wide margin. 

 

Europe:  Europe just cannot get a firm footing on pricing. The relatively stronger Celebrity and Azamara brands are offsetting substantially weaker RC pricing.  The RC brand represents roughly 50% of RCL's European capacity in F2Q and F3Q.

 

Alaska:  With the Celebrity brand holding twice as much capacity as the RC brand, it is discouraging to see prices move significantly lower.  We estimate 2013 Alaska overall capacity to be unchanged from 2012 capacity.

 

Asia:  Solid pricing  

 

2013 EARLY WAVE SEASON PRICING - rcl234

 

CCL

 

Caribbean:  Not much movement in trend in January.  Similar to RCL, F1Q 2013 will be tough for CCL.  We’re seeing moderately higher pricing in the latter half of 2013.

 

Europe:  As expected, Costa is doing well, particularly in 2H 2013.  We’re seeing price increases of +20-30%.  Princess is also seeing nicely higher YoY price gains.  Cunard pricing continues to lag, a carryover from 2012.  However, while YoY pricing remains healthy, the overall price momentum since last Q has been decelerating, which doesn’t bode well for Wave Season.

 

Mexico:  Pricing has been pretty healthy.

 

Alaska:  Holland and Princess pricing has been trending lower in F3Q.  CCL guided to 24% of its capacity in Alaska in F3Q.

 

Asia/South America:  There is some pressure in the Asia/Australia itineraries in F2Q.  South America has held up relatively well. 

 

2013 EARLY WAVE SEASON PRICING - ccl345


UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more