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In preparation for HOT's 4Q earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.

HOT YOUTUBE - HOT2

STARWOOD HOTELS COMPLETES SALE OF ALOFT AND ELEMENT LEXINGTON FOR $36 MILLION (01/31/13)

STARWOOD TO REDEEM ITS 7.875% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2014 (~$179MM OUTSTANDING) ON DECEMBER 24 (12/14/12)

STARWOOD PRICES $350 MILLION OF 3.125% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2023 (12/5/12)

YOUTUBE FROM Q3 CONFERENCE CALL

  • "We control property and corporate costs."
  • "We see mixed signals in North America and China. But the case can be made that the current deceleration is a temporary pause in growth."
  • "Corporate transient travel, for example, continues to be robust with occupancies up versus last year. That said, some group bookings are on hold as customers wait to see how their business will perform next year. A more positive sign in lodging, as with autos and housing, is that pent-up demand for new hotel construction might soon contribute to growth. We're beginning to see more interest among owners to initiate projects than at any time since before the crisis."
  • [China] "Starting with credit tightening, we have yet to see an existing hotel project stopped for lack of financing. And year-to- date, we've signed more new deals and opened more hotels than last year; the bulk of our development has moved from Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities....So, overall, despite tighter credit we see an active development community that's bullish on hotels and has confidence in Starwood."
  • "The euro situation remains volatile and far from over. Now that we're in the travel off-season there, it may be a while before we see where that market is headed."
  • "Going forward, we can now expect our earnings to be 65% fee generated. That compares with less than 20% prior to our host transaction in 2006."
  • "After New York, Dubai has more Starwood Hotels than any other city in the world; and not to mention seven more hotels in nearby Abu Dhabi and Sharjah. And despite our hotel count, our occupancies there are running over 83% this year."
  • [NA REVPAR]  "Corporate America is cautious ahead of the elections and fiscal cliff discussions, so it's unlikely that we'll see any up tick in the fourth quarter. On the positive front, Canada is improving sequentially and will have REVPAR growth in Q4."
  • "Systemwide occupancies in North America are now above the prior peak set in 2006. Rate is still 5% below prior peaks. In Q3, rate accounted for 80% of the REVPAR gain. The business in the U.S. is well positioned to benefit from meaningful rate improvement should demand trends pickup."
  • "We remain of the view that corporate rate negotiations should result at least in the high single-digit increase for 2013. We will describe the group business as steady, but not robust. The large group segment is an area of weakness. We expect that North America REVPAR growth in Q4 will be in the upper half of our 4% to 6% guidance range."
  • "Despite the issues in Europe, our company-operated hotels are almost at peak REVPAR levels in constant dollars. We are experiencing a fair amount of volatility from week to week in Europe, but no meaningful change in trend... Europe REVPAR growth will be at the low end of our guidance range."
  • "With a leadership change now slated for November 8, we do not expect any improvement in China for the rest of the year. In fact, the trend may get worse before it gets better. As our business in China has grown to over 100 hotels, with more and more in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, we are very much a local company with two-thirds of our business coming from Chinese travelers. Our team on the ground is convinced that China will get back to business after the transition but probably not till early next year. We expect Asia REVPAR growth to be in the middle of our guidance range or lower...  we are optimistic at this point that growth in Asia will pick up as we enter the new year."
  • "In Africa and the Middle East, Saudi and the Gulf states continue to do well. Across the rest of the Middle East our business reflects what you read in the papers. Things are not improving in Egypt. Except for Algeria, the rest of North Africa remains unstable. Sub-Saharan Africa is doing well with Nigeria and South Africa leading the way. Easy comparisons helped report our results in this region in Q3, comparisons and are more normal as we enter Q4 and we expect REVPAR growth in the middle of our range."
  • "We expect Argentina to remain a significant drag for our Latin American business and the most significant crisis linked to a currency devaluation cannot be ruled out."
  • "Canada is recovering, but New York and Phoenix are weaker than we expected."
  • [Bal Harbour]  "We expect to deliver another $10 million in EBITDA in Q4, bringing the full year total to $135 million.  By year end, we expect to have closed over 70% of the residential units available for sale. Demand for units remain strong and we continue to raise prices. We are on track to achieve our goal of $1 billion from condo sales revenue at sellout."
  • "Asset sales completed to date impacted EBITDA by $2.5 million in Q3 and will reduce Q4 EBITDA by another $8 million....As a result of the hotel sales completed to date, our 2013 EBITDA will be negatively impacted by approximately $20 million versus 2012, a total of $30 million on an annualized basis."
  • "We intend to maintain a leverage ratio as defined by the rating agencies of 2 to 2.5 times, so that we can retain an investment-grade rating through the hotel cycle."
  • [2013 REVPAR guidance]  "Our general sense is that at current trends, we're in the lower half of the range. We do think there could be an uptick post the leadership transition in China and in the U.S., which would put us in the upper half of the range."
  • [Potential portfolio sale] "There still isn't yet the kind of volume and depth in the market to create the appetite for that. That could very well change as we get into 2013. We'll certainly keep an eye on it."
  • [Capital spend outlook]  "I think you should assume that next year, we'll be at or slightly above where this year was because of some of those things being pushed into next year. And then after that, we should start to see it moderating."