TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 30, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or 1.05% downside to 1492 and 0.34% upside to 1513.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.73 from 1.72
- VIX closed at 13.31 1 day percent change of -1.92%
- 10YR – what a rip! 10yr yields finally grab the 2% line and swallow it, 2.03% this morning and signaling immediate-term TRADE overbought (yields); asset allocators have to be very defensive now that we have a full month of stocks crushing gold/bonds.
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications (prior 7.0%)
- 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, Jan., est. 165k (prior 215k)
- 8:30am: GDP QoQ (annualized), 4Q, est. 1.1% (prior 3.1%)
- 8:30am: Personal Consumption 4Q, est. 2.1% (prior 1.6%)
- 8:30am: Core PCE QoQ 4Q, est. 0.25% (prior 0.25%)
- 10:30am: DoE Energy Inventories
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes
- 2:15pm: FOMC Rate Decision
GOVERNMENT:
- Senate in session, House not in session
- Senate Judiciary Cmte holds hearing on gun control, with witness including Mark Kelly, husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords; Wayne LaPierre, executive VP of NRA
- World Bank President Jim Yong Kim addresses conference on anti-corruption, global development, 9am
WHAT TO WATCH
- Price, timing to be in focus at BlackBerry 10 event
- U.S. economy probably slowed as spending gain drained stockpiles
- Pfizer will evaluate whether to divide drug units, CEO says
- Asian stocks rise to 17-mo high as euro rallies to strongest since 2011
- Chesapeake CEO McClendon to leave after Icahn, Southeastern push
- Dell founder said to seek majority control using personal funds
- Apple fails in bid to increase $1b patent verdict against Samsung
- Facebook seen reporting faster sales growth on mobile-ad demand
- Boeing probe seeks data on battery failures before fire
- Kinder Morgan buys Copano for $3.2b to add gas assets
- Amazon rises after margin improvement
- TARP watchdog spars with Treasury on Ally Financial exit plan
- Morgan Stanley cross-asset strategist Gregory Peters exits firm
- Ipsen may seek U.S. acquisitions and partnerships, CEO says
- Toyota recalls almost 1.3m vehicles globally on airbags, wipers
- Spain’s recession deepens more than forecast as cuts in budget curb demand
- Oil service companies plunge in Europe as Saipem cuts earning forecast
- Beijing smog prompts Apple, JPMorgan to distribute face masks to employees
EARNINGS:
- ADT (ADT) 6am, $0.42
- Evercore Partners (EVR) 6am, $0.52
- CGI Group (GIB/A CN) 6:30am, C$0.45
- MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) 6:30am, $0.36
- Northrop Grumman (NOC) 7am, $1.74
- L-3 Communications (LLL) 7am, $2.12
- Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 7am, $0.37
- Bank of Hawaii (BOH) 7am, $0.90
- Rockwell Automation (ROK) 7am, $1.26
- Valley National Bancorp (VLY) 7am, $0.19
- Wisconsin Energy (WEC) 7am, $0.41
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 7:03am, $2.10
- MeadWestvaco (MWV) 7:25am, $0.18
- Hess (HES) 7:30am, $1.21
- Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) 7:30am, $0.58
- Southern (SO) 7:30am, $0.40
- Manpower (MAN) 7:30am, $0.77
- Boeing (BA) 7:30am, $1.18 - Preview
- CommVault Systems (CVLT) 7:40am, $0.32
- New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) 8am, $0.30
- Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) 8am, $0.12
- Phillips 66 (PSX) 8am, $1.69
- BOK Financial (BOKF) 8am, $1.26
- Haemonetics (HAE) 8am, $0.54
- TCF Financial (TCB) 8am, $0.18
- Health Net (HNT) 8:15am, $0.38
- Avery Dennison (AVY) 8:30am, $0.49
- SEI Investments Co (SEIC) 8:30am, $0.32
- Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) 9am, $0.93
- ConocoPhillips (COP) 4pm, $1.42 - Preview
- Qualcomm (QCOM) 4pm, $1.12
- TFS Financial (TFSL) 4pm, $0.02
- Align Technology (ALGN) 4pm, $0.22
- Knight Transportation (KNX) 4pm, $0.22
- AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 4:01pm, $1.39
- Electronic Arts (EA) 4:01pm, $0.56
- Amdocs (DOX) 4:01pm, $0.70
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 4:01pm, $0.60
- Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) 4:01pm, $1.03
- Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT) 4:01pm, $0.70
- ServiceNow (NOW) 4:02pm, $(0.04)
- Facebook (FB) 4:05pm, $0.15
- JDS Uniphase (JDSU) 4:05pm, $0.14
- Citrix Systems (CTXS) 4:05pm, $0.84
- CACI International (CACI) 4:05pm, $1.63
- Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) 4:05pm, $0.19
- Cabot (CBT) 4:05pm, $0.76
- Acxiom (ACXM) 4:05pm, $0.16
- Fair Isaac (FICO) 4:05pm, $0.73
- Tetra Tech (TTEK) 4:05pm, $0.40
- Intersil (ISIL) 4:05pm, $0.05
- Fusion-io (FIO) 4:05pm, $0.08
- Ameriprise Financial (AMP) 4:05pm, $1.47
- Capstead Mortgage (CMO) 4:10pm, $0.33
- Duke Realty (DRE) 4:11pm, $0.27
- Fortinet (FTNT) 4:15pm, $0.15
- Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) 4:30pm, $0.54
- Concur Technologies (CNQR) 4:30pm, $0.30
- MKS Instruments (MKSI) 4:30pm, $(0.00)
- ST Microelectronics (STM IM) 4:34pm, $(0.07)
- Murphy Oil (MUR) 5pm, $1.36
- Triumph Group (TGI) 5pm, $1.42
- EverBank Financial (EVER) 5pm, $0.31
- Crown Holdings (CCK) 5:02pm, $0.54
- Atwood Oceanics (ATW) 5:05pm, $0.92
- Vanguard Health Systems (VHS) 5:05pm, $0.17
- Regency Centers (REG) 5:15pm, $0.58
- SL Green Realty (SLG) 6pm, $1.15
- Kirby (KEX) 6pm, $0.85
- MPLX (MPLX) NA, $0.22
- Owens-Illinois (OI) Post-Mkt, $0.37
- Methanex (MX CN) Post-Mkt, $0.55
- Kilroy Realty (KRC) Post-Mkt, $0.62
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – our model says Brent Oil > $115/barrel is a new problem for Global Consumption, and the market is testing that level today; Consumer Discretionary stocks (XLY) were the only red sector in the US yesterday; our growth expectations start to see headwinds w/ Oil +7.5% higher vs where we started making the #GrowthStabilizing call in Nov-Dec.
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – when it gets almost as good as it can get (in the moment) it looks like Asia did last night: Japan +2.3% to overbought (+28.3% Nikkei since Nov13!), Shanghai Comp +1% (+21.6% since Dec3!), and the KOSPI recovered TREND line support (1959) closing +0.43% at 1964. Headlines getting frothy right on time.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
