THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 30, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or 1.05% downside to 1492 and 0.34% upside to 1513. 

                                                                                                                              

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.73 from 1.72
  • VIX  closed at 13.31 1 day percent change of -1.92%
  • 10YR – what a rip! 10yr yields finally grab the 2% line and swallow it, 2.03% this morning and signaling immediate-term TRADE overbought (yields); asset allocators have to be very defensive now that we have a full month of stocks crushing gold/bonds.

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications (prior 7.0%)
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, Jan., est. 165k (prior 215k)
  • 8:30am: GDP QoQ (annualized), 4Q, est. 1.1% (prior 3.1%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption 4Q, est. 2.1% (prior 1.6%)
  • 8:30am: Core PCE QoQ 4Q, est. 0.25% (prior 0.25%)
  • 10:30am: DoE Energy Inventories
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes
  • 2:15pm: FOMC Rate Decision

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate in session, House not in session
    • Senate Judiciary Cmte holds hearing on gun control, with witness including Mark Kelly, husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords; Wayne LaPierre, executive VP of NRA
    • World Bank President Jim Yong Kim addresses conference on anti-corruption, global development, 9am

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Price, timing to be in focus at BlackBerry 10 event
  • U.S. economy probably slowed as spending gain drained stockpiles
  • Pfizer will evaluate whether to divide drug units, CEO says
  • Asian stocks rise to 17-mo high as euro rallies to strongest since 2011
  • Chesapeake CEO McClendon to leave after Icahn, Southeastern push
  • Dell founder said to seek majority control using personal funds
  • Apple fails in bid to increase $1b patent verdict against Samsung
  • Facebook seen reporting faster sales growth on mobile-ad demand
  • Boeing probe seeks data on battery failures before fire
  • Kinder Morgan buys Copano for $3.2b to add gas assets
  • Amazon rises after margin improvement
  • TARP watchdog spars with Treasury on Ally Financial exit plan
  • Morgan Stanley cross-asset strategist Gregory Peters exits firm
  • Ipsen may seek U.S. acquisitions and partnerships, CEO says
  • Toyota recalls almost 1.3m vehicles globally on airbags, wipers
  • Spain’s recession deepens more than forecast as cuts in budget curb demand
  • Oil service companies plunge in Europe as Saipem cuts earning forecast
  • Beijing smog prompts Apple, JPMorgan to distribute face masks to employees

EARNINGS:

    • ADT (ADT) 6am, $0.42
    • Evercore Partners (EVR) 6am, $0.52
    • CGI Group (GIB/A CN) 6:30am, C$0.45
    • MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) 6:30am, $0.36
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) 7am, $1.74
    • L-3 Communications (LLL) 7am, $2.12
    • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 7am, $0.37
    • Bank of Hawaii (BOH) 7am, $0.90
    • Rockwell Automation (ROK) 7am, $1.26
    • Valley National Bancorp (VLY) 7am, $0.19
    • Wisconsin Energy (WEC) 7am, $0.41
    • Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 7:03am, $2.10
    • MeadWestvaco (MWV) 7:25am, $0.18
    • Hess (HES) 7:30am, $1.21
    • Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) 7:30am, $0.58
    • Southern (SO) 7:30am, $0.40
    • Manpower (MAN) 7:30am, $0.77
    • Boeing (BA) 7:30am, $1.18 - Preview
    • CommVault Systems (CVLT) 7:40am, $0.32
    • New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) 8am, $0.30
    • Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) 8am, $0.12
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) 8am, $1.69
    • BOK Financial (BOKF) 8am, $1.26
    • Haemonetics (HAE) 8am, $0.54
    • TCF Financial (TCB) 8am, $0.18
    • Health Net (HNT) 8:15am, $0.38
    • Avery Dennison (AVY) 8:30am, $0.49
    • SEI Investments Co (SEIC) 8:30am, $0.32
    • Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) 9am, $0.93
    • ConocoPhillips (COP) 4pm, $1.42 - Preview
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) 4pm, $1.12
    • TFS Financial (TFSL) 4pm, $0.02
    • Align Technology (ALGN) 4pm, $0.22
    • Knight Transportation (KNX) 4pm, $0.22
    • AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 4:01pm, $1.39
    • Electronic Arts (EA) 4:01pm, $0.56
    • Amdocs (DOX) 4:01pm, $0.70
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 4:01pm, $0.60
    • Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) 4:01pm, $1.03
    • Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT) 4:01pm, $0.70
    • ServiceNow (NOW) 4:02pm, $(0.04)
    • Facebook (FB) 4:05pm, $0.15
    • JDS Uniphase (JDSU) 4:05pm, $0.14
    • Citrix Systems (CTXS) 4:05pm, $0.84
    • CACI International (CACI) 4:05pm, $1.63
    • Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) 4:05pm, $0.19
    • Cabot (CBT) 4:05pm, $0.76
    • Acxiom (ACXM) 4:05pm, $0.16
    • Fair Isaac (FICO) 4:05pm, $0.73
    • Tetra Tech (TTEK) 4:05pm, $0.40
    • Intersil (ISIL) 4:05pm, $0.05
    • Fusion-io (FIO) 4:05pm, $0.08
    • Ameriprise Financial (AMP) 4:05pm, $1.47
    • Capstead Mortgage (CMO) 4:10pm, $0.33
    • Duke Realty (DRE) 4:11pm, $0.27
    • Fortinet (FTNT) 4:15pm, $0.15
    • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) 4:30pm, $0.54
    • Concur Technologies (CNQR) 4:30pm, $0.30
    • MKS Instruments (MKSI) 4:30pm, $(0.00)
    • ST Microelectronics (STM IM) 4:34pm, $(0.07)
    • Murphy Oil (MUR) 5pm, $1.36
    • Triumph Group (TGI) 5pm, $1.42
    • EverBank Financial (EVER) 5pm, $0.31
    • Crown Holdings (CCK) 5:02pm, $0.54
    • Atwood Oceanics (ATW) 5:05pm, $0.92
    • Vanguard Health Systems (VHS) 5:05pm, $0.17
    • Regency Centers (REG) 5:15pm, $0.58
    • SL Green Realty (SLG) 6pm, $1.15
    • Kirby (KEX) 6pm, $0.85
    • MPLX (MPLX) NA, $0.22
    • Owens-Illinois (OI) Post-Mkt, $0.37
    • Methanex (MX CN) Post-Mkt, $0.55
    • Kilroy Realty (KRC) Post-Mkt, $0.62

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


OIL – our model says Brent Oil > $115/barrel is a new problem for Global Consumption, and the market is testing that level today; Consumer Discretionary stocks (XLY) were the only red sector in the US yesterday; our growth expectations start to see headwinds w/ Oil +7.5% higher vs where we started making the #GrowthStabilizing call in Nov-Dec.

 

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CURRENCIES

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – when it gets almost as good as it can get (in the moment) it looks like Asia did last night: Japan +2.3% to overbought (+28.3% Nikkei since Nov13!), Shanghai Comp +1% (+21.6% since Dec3!), and the KOSPI recovered TREND line support (1959) closing +0.43% at 1964. Headlines getting frothy right on time.

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team