TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 29, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or 0.81% downside to 1488 and 0.65% upside to 1510.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.68 from 1.69
- VIX closed at 13.57 1 day percent change of 5.28%
- 10YR – higher-highs for Treasury yields again this week despite stocks having their 1st down day in 8 and the futures a tad lower this morning; 2.01% is immediate-term TRADE resistance; no intermediate-term resistance to 2.41%; employment and housing continue to support higher bond yields and fund flows out of Treasuries into stock market chasing.
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- FOMC opens two-day meeting
- 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
- 8:55am: Johnson/Redbook weekly sales
- 9am: S&P/CS 20 City M/m, Nov. est. 0.7% (prior 0.66%)
- 9am:S&P/CS Composite-20 Y/y, Nov., est. 5.5% (prior 4.31%)
- 10am: Consumer Confidence, Jan., est. 64.0 (prior 65.1)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 2020-2022 sector
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell 4W bills
- 1pm: U.S. Treasury to sell $35b 5Y notes
- 4:30pm: API energy inventories
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama to speak on immigration in Nev.
- Senate in session, House returns Feb. 4
- Senate expected to vote on nomination of Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass, to succeed Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State
WHAT TO WATCH
- Bernanke seen buying $1.14t in assets by early 2014
- Goldman raises ~$1b from stake in China’s ICBC
- Yahoo sees 1Q revenue below estimates as 4Q adj. EPS beats
- VMWare sales forecast misses estimates; job cuts planned
- AMR ad hoc bondholder group said to favor merger with US Airways
- BS told by U.S. judge to give IRS data on Wegelin accounts
- U.S. seeks criminal charges in RBS Libor settlement, WSJ says
- Bausch & Lomb’s PE owners may favor IPO after buyers balk: WSJ
- Japan’s govt. proposes 1st spending cut in 7 yrs
- India cuts interest rates to revive growth as inflation cools
- United States Bakery to buy Hostess bread brands for $29m
EARNINGS:
- Tyco International (TYC) 6am, $0.39
- Danaher (DHR) 6am, $0.86
- Ashland (ASH) 6am, $1.36
- Polaris Industries (PII) 6am, $1.23
- Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) 6:30am, $0.79 - Preview
- Harris (HRS) 6:30am, $1.19
- CIT Group (CIT) 6:30am, $0.61
- EMC (EMC) 6:45am, $0.52
- Potlatch (PCH) 6:45am, $0.32
- International Paper (IP) 6:58am, $0.65
- Waddell & Reed (WDR) 6:59am, $0.58
- IDEXX (IDXX) 7am, $0.71
- Corning (GLW) 7am, $0.33
- Pentair (PNR) 7am, $0.44
- Pfizer (PFE) 7am, $0.44 - Preview
- Tupperware Brands (TUP) 7am, $1.68
- DR Horton (DHI) 7am, $0.14 - Preview
- Harley-Davidson (HOG) 7am, $0.31
- Metro (MRU CN) 7am, C$1.11
- Ford Motor Co (F) 7am, $0.26 - Preview
- Boston Scientific (BSX) 7am, $0.11 - Preview
- Lexmark International (LXK) 7am, $0.90
- Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) 7am, $1.34
- Alliance Holdings GP (AHGP) 7am, $0.79
- United States Steel (X) 7:30am, $(0.76) - Preview
- Canadian Pacific Railway (CP CN) 7:30am, $1.28
- Monro Muffler (MNRO) 7:30am, $0.36
- JetBlue Airways (JBLU) 7:30am, $0.02
- T Rowe Price Group (TROW) 7:30am, $0.89
- Anixter International (AXE) 7:30am, $1.32
- BankUnited (BKU) 7:30am, $0.49
- NextEra Energy (NEE) 7:32am, $0.95
- Valero Energy (VLO) 7:40am, $1.20
- United Bankshares (UBSI) 7:50am, $0.44
- Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) 7:55am, $2.43
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW) 8am, $0.91
- Peabody Energy (BTU) 8am, $0.26
- Gentex (GNTX) 8am, $0.26
- Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN) 8:30am, $0.12
- Nucor (NUE) 9am, $0.30 - Preview
- Amazon.com (AMZN) 4pm, $0.27
- Plantronics (PLT) 4pm, $0.68
- Freescale Semiconductor (FSL) 4pm, $(0.17)
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 4pm, $(0.08)
- Hub Group (HUBG) 4pm, $0.50
- Manhattan Associates (MANH) 4pm, $0.67
- Ace (ACE) 4:01pm, $1.28
- Aspen Technology (AZPN) 4:01pm, $0.05
- Wesco Aircraft Holdings (WAIR) 4:01pm, $0.28
- Robert Half International (RHI) 4:02pm, $0.41
- Parexel International (PRXL) 4:02pm, $0.33
- Dolby Laboratories (DLB) 4:05pm, $0.56
- Broadcom (BRCM) 4:05pm, $0.74
- StanCorp Financial Group (SFG) 4:05pm, $0.84
- Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) 4:09pm, $0.38
- Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) 4:15pm, $2.62
- Ryland Group (RYL) 4:15pm, $0.50
- CapitalSource (CSE) 4:15pm, $0.13
- Virtus Investment (VRTS) 4:15pm, $1.52
- Unisys (UIS) 4:30pm, $1.49
- PolyOne (POL) 4:35pm, $0.21
- Silgan Holdings (SLGN) 4:50pm, $0.47
- Boston Properties (BXP) Post-Mkt, $1.24
- MB Financial (MBFI) Post-Mkt, $0.43
- Buckeye Technologies (BKI) Post-Mkt, $0.68
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – biggest headwind to our call on Global Growth remains higher oil prices; with Brent back in a Bullish Formation (long-term TAIL support = $111.48), it’s ok to start shorting favorite consumer ideas (we shorted Macy’s (M) in the US yesterday and still like DRI and KSS short).
- Gold Assets Head for Worst Monthly Drop Since ‘11 on Rebound
- Tin Beating All Metals on Fourth Year of Shortages: Commodities
- Brent Trades Near Three-Month High on Global Economic Confidence
- Gold Climbs From Two-Week Low in London on U.S. Stimulus Outlook
- Canadian Wheat Harvest Seen Gaining as Global Supply Rebounds
- Copper Trades Little Changed at $8,053 a Metric Ton in London
- Cocoa Advances on Speculation of Industry Buying; Sugar Retreats
- Cotton Crop Shrinking Signals Rebound in Price: Chart of the Day
- Rubber Declines as U.S. Home Sales, Chinese Purchases Decrease
- Oil Supplies Rise in Survey as Production Climbs: Energy Markets
- Rebar Ends Near Six-Month High on Chinese Growth Recovery Bets
- Tanker Glut Worsening as OPEC Cuts Most Since Recession: Freight
- Anglo Writes Down $4 Billion on Minas-Rio as Spending Climbs
- Corn Rises for Second Day as Dryness May Reduce Argentine Crop
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – mixed bag of signals overnight as China powers to another immediate-term TRADE overbought signal, +0.5% at 2338 on the Shanghai Comp; India down -0.6% on what we thought was a dumb rate cut (1st Asian major to cut in 2013, which is a lot different than last yrs 10,000 global easings).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team