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Simpletons & Dunderheads

This note was originally published at 8am on January 14, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Our affairs are not conducted entirely by simpletons and dunderheads.”

-Winston Churchill

 

Per the Urban Dictionary, a “dunderhead” is, amongst other things, an idiot, dunce, numskull, or bonehead. With public opinion of him falling in early 1942, Churchill was irritated. Losing the war was one thing; being chastised by Ivory Tower academics was entirely another.

 

Singapore fell on February 15 (1942). It was death foretold – too few defenses, a weak commanding general, a demoralized garrison, and too savvy an enemy … Churchill had no need to resort to hyperbole… he informed Roosevelt that the fall of Singapore was the greatest disaster in our history.” (The Last Lion, page 484-485)

 

While the 113th United States Congress has yet to prove that it is the worst in free-market history (the 112th is a tough compare), it still has time. I’m just elated that these economic dunderheads of the #PoliticalClass have been out of this market’s way for the last few weeks. Geithner leaving and Congress being out of the way definitely helped the Russell2000 close last week at an all-time high.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

This is the first Global Macro morning that I can remember where the names Boehner and Reid aren’t in the Bloomberg’s “Most Read.” Today it’s all about Chinese growth (acceleration) and Japanese currency (debauchery).

 

Neither of those macro stories are new. That’s the point about consensus macro – by the time it becomes this newsy, the big moves in the related markets have already occurred.

 

From their intermediate-term troughs/peaks in November 2012 (as global growth stopped slowing):

  1. Chinese stocks (Shanghai Composite) are up +18%
  2. Japanese Yen (vs the US Dollar) is down -11%

Especially in the context of the SP500 and US Dollar Index being +8.7% and -2.1% from their respective November 2012 lows/highs, respectively, those are massive moves in Asian markets.

 

The move in Japanese Equities has been even more powerful than China’s. Since November 13th, the Nikkei225 is +25%! Krugman/Bernanke Playbook 101: burn your currency at the stake, admit nothing about it publicly, and point at the daily closing price of stocks.

 

How will what Jim Rickards coined the Currency War end? I don’t know. But it probably won’t end well. So, as you ride the bull of higher-lows and higher-highs in stocks out there, just keep that in mind. Remember, in Chaos Theory, our daily objective is to embrace uncertainty.

 

CONSENSUS WATCH: On Friday I highlighted the massive shift from bearish to bullish we have seen in US Equity market sentiment in the last two months. Today, it’s worth reminding you that the sentiment in Commodities has done almost the exact opposite.

 

Last week’s CFTC (futures and options) net long commodities figures revealed the following realities:

  1. Total net long positions down another -5.4% wk-over-wk to 654,443 contracts (down -51% from all-time highs in SEP 2012)
  2. Gold’s net long position dropped another -13% wk-over-wk to 92,115 (lowest level since August 2012)
  3. Corn’s net long positioned dropped another -15% wk-over-wk to 115,113 (lowest since June 2012)

In other words, when it comes to risk managing the Commodities Bubble, you are best served doing the exact opposite of what the hedge fund community is doing. This may be the most glaring intermediate-term example of BUY HIGH, SELL LOW I have seen in a decade.

 

Both Gold and Corn prices went up on that last week. What better bull case do you need other than consensus dunderheads who call themselves “smart” getting bearish? While we have deflated the inflation in commodity prices (CRB Index -8% from its SEP 2012 lower long-term high) for the last 3 months, that certainly doesn’t mean they can’t re-flate.

 

With the US Dollar Down hard last week (-1.2%), here’s where the beta-juice was to Down Dollar:

  1. Platinum +4.8%
  2. Corn +4.2%
  3. Coffee +4.1% 

At the same time, we saw some of the widest global equity market divergences (by geographic region) that we have seen in some time. Europe saw Germany down -0.8% on the week, but Italy was +3.2%. In Asia, Vietnam was +8.6% versus Indonesia -2.4%.

 

What do we simpletons do with all of this? We stay with the research and risk management process; we do our best to incorporate all of the real-time economic data and price changes (across multiple factors and durations) in our models;  and we keep moving.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), Copper, US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST10yr Yield, and the SP500 are now $1642-1671, $109.98-111.48, 3.64-3.75, $79.39-79.98, $1.31-1.33, 1.84-1.97%, and 1459-1485, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Simpletons & Dunderheads - Chart of the Day

 

Simpletons & Dunderheads - Virtual Portfolio


A Look at Performance to Start the Year

Our experience is that consumer staples generally lag a "risk on" market such as we have seen since January 1st.  This has not been the case to start 2013 - staples have outperformed the broader market (+6.5% including agricultural services and protein, +5.5% core staples vs. the S&P +5.4%) since January 1st.  Admittedly, the world doesn't change when the calendar rolls over, but let's run with it.

 

A Look at Performance to Start the Year - Sector performance YTD

 

Outside of the agricultural service names and protein - likely investors getting positioned for the new crop year, which is consistent with our views - the best performing sectors have been household and personal care (+7.5%, 2.4% of which came from PG's performance on Friday) and packaged food (+6.4% to start the year).  We are a bit surprised by packaged food's performance - a highly defensive sector.  Part of it may be that people are looking at 2012 laggards and part of it may be investors looking at the possibility of lower input costs (again, consistent with our initiation call back in December).

 

Also somewhat surprisingly, investors have broken the pattern of the last two years and not put risk on within the staples sector to start the year.  Generally, we see higher beta names outperform lower beta within consumer staples when the calendar turns.  That has not been the case thus far in 2013.

 

A Look at Performance to Start the Year - High Beta vs. Low Beta

 

This year to date performance, accomplished absent any significant upward EPS revisions, has left the valuation of the consumer staples sector somewhat stretched versus recent history.

 

A Look at Performance to Start the Year - Consumer Staples PE

 

The consumer staples sector performance has been somewhat confounding for another reason - the sector has become increasingly sensitive to changes in yields on government securities in recent years, a theme we discussed at length on our initiation.

 

A Look at Performance to Start the Year - XLP vs. 10 year

 

In fact, the spread between the yield on the 10 year and the yield of the XLP has decreased 44 bps (from -139 to -95 bps) in just a few weeks.  This represents a combination of the price performance of the XLP and the fact that yields have crept higher.

 

A Look at Performance to Start the Year - Yield spread

 

We are left with the relative out-performance of the sector in the face of two potential headwinds - a "risk on" market and a relatively less attractive yield profile.  So, we went searching for an answer and tested a few possibilities.

 

Our first though was short covering.  Short covering has been a powerful theme to start the year - just ask the shorts in NFLX.  We looked at the short interest ratio for individual stocks as of December 31st and the associated absolute performance to start the year.  No dice - R2 of 0.0052.

 

A Look at Performance to Start the Year - Short interest vs. YTD performance

 

Next, we looked at names that lagged in 2012, anticipating investors positioning for some regression to the mean in the sector.  Again, no luck, as you can see below.

 

A Look at Performance to Start the Year - 2012 Performance vs. 2013 YTD

 

We then asked the question "what if investors simply don't believe this move up in the market?"  In that case, the go to move would be to try and participate in as safe a way as possible, with limited downside should the economy stall or negative news flow surrounding the debt ceiling debate increase in intensity.  The consumer staples sector makes sense in that context.  In fact, we have heard some investors suggest that they were waiting for a better entry point, anticipating broad weakness as the debt ceiling debate looms.

 

We examined this possibility by looking at the performance of the XLP versus the performance of the Citi Economic Surprise Index (an index that purports to measure the gap between expectations and reality with respect to multiple economic data points).  When the index is rising, data is better than expectations, and consumer staples generally lag.  When the index is falling (as it is currently), the XLP tends to perform well as expectations are not being met by the reported data.  Imperfect, indeed, but directionally and intuitively compelling.

 

A Look at Performance to Start the Year - XLP and Economic Surprises

 

Where does that leave us?  A quick summary:

 

  1. Very good performance to start the year across consumer staples

  2. The trend of risk on within staples to start the year has been broken
  3. Valuations have become somewhat stretched
  4. Not seeing short-covering or chasing laggards
  5. Investors may be playing "offensive defense" by buying staples in the face of a rising market they might not necessarily believe in

If this move up in the market is "real", and to the extent that more investors start to believe that, money should flow from staples.  Alternatively, if those investors that are on the sideline are correct, staples will decline, albeit not as significantly as the broader market.  So, it follows that we are getting more cautious across the sector.  Our preferred shorts remain TAP, KMB, PM and either GIS or CPB in packaged food.  We are sticking with our preferred longs:

 

  1. STZ - event stock with near-term catalyst
  2. CAG - valuation remains compelling
  3. PG - positive bias to EPS estimates (versus KMB short)
  4. ADM - most compelling way to play new crop year (though no clear view on upcoming EPS)

One more thought - for those investors that can, options are broadly inexpensive and stock replacement strategies might make sense particularly as we are getting more and more cautious on the group given the dynamics outlined in this note.  Finally, the upcoming earnings season will be revealing in terms of business momentum and the likely direction of EPS revisions.  We prefer to pick our spots (like we did with PG) where we either see risk or opportunity in single stock ideas.

 

 

Have a good week,

 

Rob

 

Robert  Campagnino

Managing Director

HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT, LLC

E: 

P: 

 

Matt Hedrick

Senior Analyst 

 


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TRADE OF THE DAY: STZ

Today we bought Constellation Brands (STZ) at $37.83 a share at 10:20 AM EDT in our Real-Time Alerts. We're coming back to one of Hedgeye Consumer Staples Sector Head Rob Campagnino's best ideas on the long side after a controlled correction. 

 

TRADE OF THE DAY: STZ - TOTD


THE WEEK AHEAD

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 28th of January through the 1st February is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD - week


WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM?

Takeaway: Global CPI readings should trend higher in the short-term, but to low absolute levels before resuming their current disinflationary trend.

SUMMARY BULLETS:

 

  • After several meetings on the road with clients and prospective clients this week, it became clear to our team that a noteworthy competitor of ours is making noise about a demonstrable pickup in inflationary pressures that will slow inflation-adjusted GDP growth across the globe.
  • While we would agree that CPI readings are going to, on balance, trend higher here in 1Q and perhaps through 2Q as well, we completely disagree with the premise and conclusion of the aforementioned view.
  • Broadly speaking, we think reported CPI readings are poised to continue their rocky path lower over the next several quarters, fully equipped with a transient bounce(s) to demonstrably lower cycle peaks relative to their 2008 and 2011 highs.
  • Our call for reported inflation to broadly continue making a series of lower-highs is backed by our call for the DXY continue making a series of higher-lows while the global commodities basket (via CRB Index) continues to make a series of lower-highs.

 

At Hedgeye, we have developed a proprietary modeling process that allows us to front-run both consensus estimates of and the actual reported growth and inflation readings of any country, region or economic bloc (such as the world, on a GDP-weighted basis). In the note below, we walk through what this rigorous analytical process is signaling to us right now.

 

STEP #1: QUANTITATIVE SIGNAL(S)

Unlike many researchers who impose their theses and theories upon the market – usually the “smartest guys in the room” types – our research process remains grounded in uncertainty. We use a proven, three-factor quantitative overlay to consistently guide us to the most appropriate places to “fish”.

 

Right now, those signals are suggesting the US Dollar Index is poised to continue making a series of higher-lows over the intermediate-to-long term. That view is underpinned by our uber-bullish bias on US housing, our street-leading expectations for US employment growth and our call for a currency crisis in Japan.

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - 1

 

We have been vocal about our call for the domestic housing market and the yen in recent weeks/months, as culminated in our 1Q13 Macro Themes of #HousingsHammer and #Quadrill-yen. Our updated thoughts on the domestic labor market can be found in the notes below:

 

 

Moving along, we anticipate that the confluence of the domestic factors highlighted above will result in the FX market pulling forward its expectations of the culmination of QE (which, on the margin, would likely be functionally equivalent to a rate hike).

 

That’s explicitly bullish for America’s currency and bearish for commodities and international inflation hedges – which are broadly priced in and settled in US dollars internationally.

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - 2

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - 3

 

At least for now, domestic interest rates are confirming this view:

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - 4

 

STEP #2: GIP MODEL

Now that we know where to look from a quantitative perspective, we turn to our predictive tracking algorithms to guide us to hard numbers on the economic data front. With respect to Bloomberg’s GDP-weighted world CPI YoY index specifically, our algorithm backtests with an r² of 0.76 on the median estimate.

 

For background, the model is purposefully designed to produce a high, mid and low estimate and we use the respective market-based quantitative signals to guide our expectations to the higher or lower of the two economic data risk ranges.

 

Applying the same algorithm to a particular country, region or economic bloc’s GDP growth figures allows us to triangulate the associated sequential deltas and monetary/fiscal policy implications on our GIP chart. Currently, the world is entering Quad #2 on this analysis (i.e. Growth Accelerates as Inflation Accelerates).

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - WORLD

 

Taking a broader perspective of what the model is signaling to us, we can rest assured that any near-term pickup in reported inflation across the world (again, generally speaking) will be both transient and to absolute levels that we would consider not threatening to economic growth.

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - 6

 

As the chart above highlights, our model has been better than bad at calling for major inflection points and trends in global inflation readings for the past 4-5 years, so we feel comfortable with its summary outputs in the absence of disconfirming evidence.

 

STEP #3 THE SEARCH FOR CONFIRMING OR DISCONFIRMING EVIDENCE

It would be intellectually lazy to rest our call on the confluence of quantitative signals and the output of our modeling of economic data. Rather, the appropriate exercise – which is what we spend all day doing when not publishing research or engaging with clients – is to constantly vet confirming or disconfirming evidence.

 

With respect to commodities specifically – which we think holds a slightly leading relationship with reported CPI readings globally (varies by country based on index weights) – we are coming up with some particularly muted YoY gains when you streamline current prices throughout the year, which is in and of itself a generous assumption.

 

In fact, the current estimate of a JUN ’13 peak of +10% is well off the peak YoY growth rates of we saw in the summer of 2008 (+45.4%) and the summer of 2011 (+37.2%).

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - 7

 

Our Global Macro team continues to hold the view that commodities – particularly food and energy price inflation/deflation - have become the largest contributors to the direction and magnitude of global inflation readings in the post-crisis era of muted/nonexistent labor and income growth across the key developed markets. Slack capacity utilization also remains a headwind for the economic growth-driven inflation policymakers have been desperately searching for across much of the developed world.

 

You can see the obvious aforementioned relationship in the following chart of median YoY CPI readings of the US, Eurozone and China overlaid with our commodity price sample:

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - 8

 

Net-net-net, it’s really tough to get to anything more than +3% inflation in the world’s three largest economies on a median basis by mid-summer without some meaningful degree of commodity price inflation from here – which is precisely what we do not expect to happen. If anything, further weakness across key commodity markets should augment our call for lower-highs in global reported inflation readings throughout the year.

 

Looking to the previous chart, we don't find it at all ironic that the universal view of "price stability" across developed central banks anchors on +2% YoY CPI when considering that the same +2% happens to align with neither inflation nor deflation in international commodity markets. The deep simplicity of chaos theory strikes again...

 

On the disconfirming evidence side, both Oil and the EUR are outliers here; each looks good quantitatively at the current juncture and both stand completely counter to our call for strength in the DXY and weakness across the commodity complex (energy prices are a key driver) over the intermediate term.

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - 9

 

WHERE IS THE “GREAT INFLATION” GOING TO COME FROM? - 10

 

While it’s rather difficult for us to endorse a rock-solid fundamental call on either asset class at the current juncture, we think our non-consensus fundamental thesis regarding the USD and international commodities prices will ultimately prevail. For now, however, both crude oil and the EUR remain the two largest financial market-based risks to this view.

 

CONCLUSION

All told, our models, signals and the data all suggest global inflation readings should trend higher in the short-term, but to low absolute levels relative to their prior peaks. As such, the current disinflationary trend across the world economy is very much intact.

 

Have a wonderful weekend,

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst


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