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An unusually strong initial jobless claims number came out this morning, with claims falling 37,000 to 335,000 after posting the largest one-week decline since this same week last year. Compared with 2012, claims declined further the following week followed by a bounce, so 2013 is essentially following in the footsteps of 2012 just as we had predicted. We believe that from March through August, initial jobless claims will face strong headwinds following tailwinds we're seeing now through late February.

Jobless Claims On The Decline - 1

Remember: positive economic indicators are a boon to the market until they’re not. The good times are rolling but it will become increasingly difficult to put up numbers like today's on a consistent basis.

Jobless Claims On The Decline - 2

Jobless Claims On The Decline - 7