TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 17, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 12 points or 0.45% downside to 1466 and 0.36% upside to 1478.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.60 from 1.58
- VIX closed at 13.42 1 day percent change of -0.96%
- RUT – after making a series of all-time highs (higher-highs), the Russell2000 finally flashed a negative divergence into yesterday’s close (closing down -0.33% w/ the Nasdaq up); not a bearish signal on the margin unless confirmed today, so watch that.
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Housing Starts, Dec., est. 890k (prior 861k)
- 8:30am: Housing Starts, M/m, Dec., est. 3.3% (prior -3%)
- 8:30am: Building Permits, Dec., est. 905k (prior 900k)
- 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, Jan. 12, est. 368k (prior 371k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 13 (prior -34.4)
- 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
- 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Jan., est. 6.0 (prior 4.6)
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage change
- 11am: Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b in 2020-2022 sector
- 11am: U.S. Treasury to announce plans for 10Y TIPS auction
- 12:05pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks, Bloomberg Global Mkts Summit
GOVERNMENT:
- Senate not in session
- SEC Commissioner Gallagher at U.S. Chamber of Commerce
- Bloomberg Global Markets Summit, w/speakers Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart, Paul Wolfowitz of the American Enterprise Institute, 8am
- CFPB holds hearing on mortgage-svcing underwriting rule
- FDA decisions:
- NuPathe’s migraine patch
- Decision date for Santarus, Cosmo ulcerative colitis drug
- Dept. of Veterans Affairs may award five-year, $5b technology contract; Lockheed Martin, HP, have shown interest
WHAT TO WATCH
- Boeing’s Dreamliner planes grounded by U.S.
- Japan Airlines to cancel all Boeing 787 flights Jan. 19-25; Air India, Latam Airlines will also ground its Dreamliners
- GS Yuasa may take months to complete 787 battery probe
- Citigroup, BofA among banks releasing earnings this AM
- Silver Lake close to lining up ~$15b in funds for Dell LBO
- HP approached by investment bankers about selling assets
- Rio Tinto CEO steps down, co. taking ~$14b of writedowns
- JPMorgan said to settle claim with Whale trader’s supervisor
- AB InBev unwilling to sell Modelo plant for merger approval
- Goldman Sachs issued $6b of bonds in lender’s largest offering
- EBay sales beat ests. as Donahoe pushes mobile commerce
- Trauson says Stryker offers to buy outstanding shrs at HK$7.5 each
- Wilbur Ross still plans to have IPO of Intl Automotive Components Group; declined to say when
- Deutsche Bank profited as derivative hid Monte Paschi losses
- Advanced Micro Devices ex-employees sued over trade secrets
- GM to invest $1.5b in North America factories this year
- Sun Life, Khazanah Nasional Berhad to buy CIMB Aviva for $596m
- Accordia plans to sell ~10 properties to finance shr-buyback
- Hollywood studios sued over royalties from home video sales
EARNINGS:
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) 5:55am, $0.17
- BB&T (BBT) 6am, $0.71
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 6am, $1.20
- PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) 6:30am, $1.48
- Fifth Third Bank (FITB) 6:30am, $0.41
- BlackRock (BLK) 6:30am, $3.73
- Bank of America (BAC) 7am, $0.20
- Fastenal (FAST) 7am, $0.33
- Netscout Systems (NTCT) 7:30am, $0.35
- Citigroup (C) 8am, $0.96
- Amphenol (APH) 8am, $0.90
- Intel (INTC) 4:01pm, $0.45
- Associated Banc-corp (ASBC) 4:01pm, $0.26
- American Express (AXP) 4:01pm, NA
- People’s United Financial (PBCT) 4:02pm, $0.19
- Wintrust Financial (WTFC) 4:04pm, $0.59
- Capital One Financial (COF) 4:05pm, $1.59
- Matthews International (MATW) 4:10pm, $0.42
- Xilinx (XLNX) 4:20pm, $0.37
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- WTI Oil Rises to Four-Month High to Cut Brent Discount to $15
- JPMorgan Tops Banks for Third Year as Loans Retreat: Commodities
- Rio CEO Albanese Steps Down as $14 Billion Writedown Looms
- Rising Crude Oil May Accelerate Growth of EU Consumer Gas Prices
- Soybeans Drop From 3-Week High on Rising South American Supplies
- Gold Poised to Decline in New York Before U.S. Economic Data
- European 2014 Power Drops to Record as Near-Term Prices Decline
- Iamgold Sees ‘Peak Gold’ Forging $2,500 Price: Corporate Canada
- Korean Oil Buyers to Halt North Sea Price Slide: Energy Markets
- Trough in China PMI, Electricity Output Aids Metals: Bull Case
- Lukoil, Iraq Agree to Cut Output Target at West Qurna-2 Field
- Cocoa Butter Stabilizes in Europe as Grinders Boost Processing
- Palm Oil Declines as India Changes Calculation of Import Taxes
- Merkel Offshore Wind-Power Dream Stalls as Vow Turns to Bluster
- Copper Rises on Speculation Chinese Economic Growth Strengthened
CURRENCIES
YEN – 2-days up, tapped immediate-term TRADE resistance (24hrs ago), then straight back down here today (-0.87%); we re-shorted the bounce and went through why in our Global Macro Themes presentation titled #QuadrillYen this wk; let us know if you want that slide deck. Interesting that Nikkei didn’t go up on Yen down overnight.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
DAX – starting to make a series of lower-highs and also leads losers in European majors this morning – Euro up +0.5% to $1.33 starting to annoy some European exporters; this is the Currency War.
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team