THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 16, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 12 points or 0.50% downside to 1465 and 0.32% upside to 1477.           

                                                                                                                    

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10b


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.56 from 1.49
  • VIX  closed at 13.55 1 day percent change of 0.22%
  • BONDS – the 10yr UST yield is bullish TRADE/TREND (1.71-1.81% support) and bearish TAIL (1.84% resistance) right now, which is perfectly confusing the market, as it should – any time we start to whip above/below the big duration lines, people get confused. We say you stay w/ the TREND = buy stocks on red, short t-bonds on green.

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Jan. 11 (prior 11.7%)
  • 8:30am: CPI, M/m, Dec., est. 0.0% (prior -0.3%)
  • 8:30am: CPI Ex Food/Energy, M/m, Dec., est. 0.2%
  • 9am: Net TIC Flows, Nov. (prior -$56.7b)
  • 9am: Net L-T TIC Flows, Nov., est. $25.3b (prior $1.3b)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, Dec., est. 0.3% (prior 1.1%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, Dec., est. 78.5% (prior 78.4%)
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Jan., est. 48 (prior 47)
  • 10am: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Eden Prairie, Minn.
  • 10:30am: DoE inventories
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2042 sector
  • 2pm: Fed issues Beige Book business survey
  • 7pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Washington
  • 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Minneapolis on policy

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate not in session, House in session
    • SEC Commissioner Dan Gallagher gives 2013 outlook for agency
    • President Obama to unveil proposals to curb gun violence

WHAT TO WATCH

  • All Nippon Airways, Japan Airlines grounded entire fleet of Boeing Dreamliners; will cancel all Dreamliner ops tomorrow
  • India regulator to check 6 Dreamliners in Air India’s fleet
  • World Bank cuts 2013 global growth forecast to 2.4%
  • AB InBev said in talks w/ U.S. on concessions for Modelo
  • Ford CFO forecasts greater than $1.5b European loss in 2013
  • Alibaba said to hire Credit Suisse, Goldman for $3b-$4b IPO
  • Apple introduced installment payment plans in China
  • Temasek, CPPIB may invest in Dell alongside Silver Lake: FT
  • Temasek spokesman declines to comment on report
  • TUI Travel in talks with Airbus, Boeing on potential $6b plane order: Reuters
  • European Dec. car sales fell 16%, demand at Ford, GM, Renault
  • Wausau Paper continuing talks w/ Starboard after co. declined offer to sign non-disclosure

 EARNINGS:

    • Bank of New York Mellon (BK) 6:30am, $0.53
    • Comerica (CMA) 6:40am, $0.65
    • US Bancorp (USB) 6:45am, $0.75
    • First Republic Bank/CA (FRC) 7am, $0.73
    • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 7am, $1.22 - Preview
    • Northern Trust (NTRS) 7:14am, $0.75
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) 7:30am, $3.66 - Preview
    • M&T Bank (MTB) 8:01am, $2.17
    • Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45am, $0.15
    • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 4:05pm, $0.63
    • Kinder Morgan (KMI) 4:05pm, $0.35
    • El Paso Pipeline (EPB) 4:07pm, $0.55
    • eBay (EBAY) 4:15pm, $0.69
    • SLM (SLM) 4:15pm, $0.53
    • Clarcor (CLC) 5:21pm, $0.70
    • HB Fuller Co (FUL) 5:49pm, $0.56
    • Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) 6pm, $0.56
    • CVB Financial (CVBF) 6:45pm, $0.22

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


OIL – what we didn’t like about commodity reflation 24hrs ago, we like this morning – Oil, Gold, Copper all stopped going up again at lower-highs (Dollar Up), which is a bullish global #GrowthStabilizing signal. Brent’s TAIL risk line of $111.48 is what matters most.

  • Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as U.S. Crude Inventories Increase
  • Carrara Marble Peaks as Russians Follow Etruscans: Commodities
  • Bundesbank to Repatriate 674 Tons of Gold to Germany by 2020
  • Wheat Rises to Three-Week High as Dry Weather Threatens Crops
  • OPEC Cuts Oil Output to 14-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty
  • Copper Declines for Fourth Day Before U.S. Production Figures
  • NWR Selling Eurobonds as Yield on Coal Producer’s Debt Hits Low
  • Cocoa Slides on Demand as Crop Outlook Improves; Sugar Unchanged
  • Platinum Getting More Precious on Tight Supply: Chart of the Day
  • Goldman Sachs Prefers Copper, Palladium, Metallurgical Coal
  • U.S. Oil-Product Exports Exceed 2009 Imports to Drive Ship Surge
  • Icahn’s Transocean Buy Pushes Driller Toward Partnership: Energy
  • Louis Dreyfus Joins With Australia’s Namoi Cotton to Boost Sales
  • Gold Swings Between Gains and Declines on Debt, Growth Concerns

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


YEN – Currency War is on. After getting lit up like a Christmas tree, the Yen just bounced for 2-days (Nikkei down -2.6% overnight on that as Government Intervention ramps implied market volatility), so we’ll be looking to re-short the Yen inside of $88 (vs USD) if/when we get that signal today. This is just wild to watch.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

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MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


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