01/16/13 08:12 AM EST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 16, 2013

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 12 points or 0.50% downside to 1465 and 0.32% upside to 1477.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

YIELD CURVE: 1.56 from 1.49
VIX closed at 13.55 1 day percent change of 0.22%
BONDS – the 10yr UST yield is bullish TRADE/TREND (1.71-1.81% support) and bearish TAIL (1.84% resistance) right now, which is perfectly confusing the market, as it should – any time we start to whip above/below the big duration lines, people get confused. We say you stay w/ the TREND = buy stocks on red, short t-bonds on green.

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Jan. 11 (prior 11.7%)
8:30am: CPI, M/m, Dec., est. 0.0% (prior -0.3%)
8:30am: CPI Ex Food/Energy, M/m, Dec., est. 0.2%
9am: Net TIC Flows, Nov. (prior -$56.7b)
9am: Net L-T TIC Flows, Nov., est. $25.3b (prior $1.3b)
9:15am: Industrial Production, Dec., est. 0.3% (prior 1.1%)
9:15am: Capacity Utilization, Dec., est. 78.5% (prior 78.4%)
10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Jan., est. 48 (prior 47)
10am: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Eden Prairie, Minn.
10:30am: DoE inventories
11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2042 sector
2pm: Fed issues Beige Book business survey
7pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Washington
8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Minneapolis on policy

GOVERNMENT:

Senate not in session, House in session
SEC Commissioner Dan Gallagher gives 2013 outlook for agency
President Obama to unveil proposals to curb gun violence

WHAT TO WATCH

All Nippon Airways, Japan Airlines grounded entire fleet of Boeing Dreamliners; will cancel all Dreamliner ops tomorrow
India regulator to check 6 Dreamliners in Air India’s fleet
World Bank cuts 2013 global growth forecast to 2.4%
AB InBev said in talks w/ U.S. on concessions for Modelo
Ford CFO forecasts greater than $1.5b European loss in 2013
Alibaba said to hire Credit Suisse, Goldman for $3b-$4b IPO
Apple introduced installment payment plans in China
Temasek, CPPIB may invest in Dell alongside Silver Lake: FT
Temasek spokesman declines to comment on report
TUI Travel in talks with Airbus, Boeing on potential $6b plane order: Reuters
European Dec. car sales fell 16%, demand at Ford, GM, Renault
Wausau Paper continuing talks w/ Starboard after co. declined offer to sign non-disclosure

EARNINGS:

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) 6:30am, $0.53
Comerica (CMA) 6:40am, $0.65
US Bancorp (USB) 6:45am, $0.75
First Republic Bank/CA (FRC) 7am, $0.73
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 7am, $1.22 - Preview
Northern Trust (NTRS) 7:14am, $0.75
Goldman Sachs (GS) 7:30am, $3.66 - Preview
M&T Bank (MTB) 8:01am, $2.17
Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45am, $0.15
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 4:05pm, $0.63
Kinder Morgan (KMI) 4:05pm, $0.35
El Paso Pipeline (EPB) 4:07pm, $0.55
eBay (EBAY) 4:15pm, $0.69
SLM (SLM) 4:15pm, $0.53
Clarcor (CLC) 5:21pm, $0.70
HB Fuller Co (FUL) 5:49pm, $0.56
Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) 6pm, $0.56
CVB Financial (CVBF) 6:45pm, $0.22

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

OIL – what we didn’t like about commodity reflation 24hrs ago, we like this morning – Oil, Gold, Copper all stopped going up again at lower-highs (Dollar Up), which is a bullish global #GrowthStabilizing signal. Brent’s TAIL risk line of $111.48 is what matters most.

Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as U.S. Crude Inventories Increase
Carrara Marble Peaks as Russians Follow Etruscans: Commodities
Bundesbank to Repatriate 674 Tons of Gold to Germany by 2020
Wheat Rises to Three-Week High as Dry Weather Threatens Crops
OPEC Cuts Oil Output to 14-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty
Copper Declines for Fourth Day Before U.S. Production Figures
NWR Selling Eurobonds as Yield on Coal Producer’s Debt Hits Low
Cocoa Slides on Demand as Crop Outlook Improves; Sugar Unchanged
Platinum Getting More Precious on Tight Supply: Chart of the Day
Goldman Sachs Prefers Copper, Palladium, Metallurgical Coal
U.S. Oil-Product Exports Exceed 2009 Imports to Drive Ship Surge
Icahn’s Transocean Buy Pushes Driller Toward Partnership: Energy
Louis Dreyfus Joins With Australia’s Namoi Cotton to Boost Sales
Gold Swings Between Gains and Declines on Debt, Growth Concerns

CURRENCIES

YEN – Currency War is on. After getting lit up like a Christmas tree, the Yen just bounced for 2-days (Nikkei down -2.6% overnight on that as Government Intervention ramps implied market volatility), so we’ll be looking to re-short the Yen inside of $88 (vs USD) if/when we get that signal today. This is just wild to watch.